'18 Midterms: Dems win House by largest midterm raw vote margin ever

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2018 STATE PRIMARY ELECTION DATES

Alabama June 5 | July 17
Alaska Aug. 21
Arizona Aug. 28
Arkansas May 22 | June 19
California June 5
Colorado June 26
Connecticut Aug. 14
Delaware Sept. 6
Florida Aug. 28
Georgia May 22 | July 24
Hawaii Aug. 11 (Saturday)
Idaho May 15
Illinois March 20
Indiana May 8
Iowa June 5
Kansas Aug. 7
Kentucky May 22
Louisiana Nov. 6 | Dec. 8*
Maine June 12
Maryland June 26
Massachusetts Sept. 4
Michigan Aug. 7
Minnesota Aug. 14
Mississippi June 5 | June 26
Missouri Aug. 7
Montana June 5
Nebraska May 15
Nevada June 12
New Hampshire Sept. 11
New Jersey June 5
New Mexico June 5
New York Sept. 13
North Carolina May 8
North Dakota June 12
Ohio May 8
Oklahoma June 26 | Aug. 28
Oregon May 15
Pennsylvania May 15
Rhode Island Sept. 12 (Wednesday)
South Carolina June 12 | June 26
South Dakota June 5
Tennessee Aug. 2 (Thursday)
Texas Mar 6 | May 22
Utah June 26
Vermont Aug. 14
Virginia June 12
Washington Aug. 7
West Virginia May 8
Wisconsin Aug. 14
Wyoming Aug. 21

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2018-state-primary-election-dates.aspx

 

[acri1]

Pelosi is one of the most successful Dem speakers in congressional history

Sure, but you also have to look at recent history. But then again, maybe 2016 is clouding my judgment.

But going by poll numbers she's pretty unpopular and I worry that it'll hurt Dems overall -

Exclusive: Nancy Pelosi targeted in more than a third of GOP House commercials

 

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I just made a thread about this but posting it in here anyway

 

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What does this mean? It means that Republicans are "coming home." Even in a terrible year for the GOP, they are not going to perform much worse in the national vote than 43-44 percent. In 2006, for example, Republicans took 44 percent of the national House vote, even as many polls leading up to Election Day showed Republicans in the high-30’s. In 2008, an even more politically horrific year for the GOP, Republicans garnered 43 percent of the national House vote. In both cases, Republican voters, many reluctantly, "came home" to the GOP in the end. What’s happening now is that these voters are coming home sooner. Given our intense polarization, and a president and a news media that fans those partisan flames, this shouldn’t be all that surprising.

Overall, about one-third to 40 percent of self-described independent voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president. And, as we know, how you feel about the president is correlated very closely to how you vote in a mid-term election.

In the latest Marist/NPR/PBS poll (April 10-13), for example, Trump’s job approval rating among independents is 38 percent. On the generic ballot question in that same poll, the congressional Republican gets 32 percent of the independent vote. A late April Quinnipiac poll showed Trump with a 33 percent job approval among independents, and 36 percent of independents say they will vote for a Republican in the fall.

So, let’s move this forward. We can make a pretty good case that undecided independent voters are ultimately going break along Trump approval ratings. So, if Trump’s job approval rating among independents is at 40 percent going into the election, it’s fair to assume that 40 percent of the undecided independent vote will go to the Republican candidate. It could be a bit better or a bit worse. In the Marist poll, for example, 32 percent of independent voters are undecided on their vote for Congress. If those 32 percent ultimately broke along Trump approval ratings, it would mean that a Republican candidate could expect to get 44 percent of independents.

However, a 44 percent showing among independents is a bit better than where Republicans were in 2006 and 2008. According to the exit polls, Republicans took just 39 percent of the vote among independents in 2006. In 2008, Republicans took 43 percent of the independent vote (a 4 point improvement from their 2006 showing), but Democrats also made up a larger share of the electorate in 2008 than in 2006. In 2006, the share of the electorate that was Democrat was 38 percent to 36 percent Republican. In 2008, that gap grew to 7 points (40 percent Democrat to 33 percent Republican). In other words, the closer to even that Democrats and Republicans are as a percentage of the electorate, the better Democrats need to do among independent voters.

 

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[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Andrew Cuomo is a terrible Democrat—but we can replace him with a true progressive, Cynthia Nixon

Cuomo, though nominally a Democrat, has spent his entire tenure in office thwarting progressives, propping up Republicans, and coddling the one percent at the expense of the millions of New Yorkers just struggling to make it. And his failings have had national implications, too: Rather than lead the resistance to Trump’s agenda, he’s cowered before the president.

A complete list of Cuomo’s sins would be impossibly long to recount in full, so instead we’ll offer some of his darkest lowlights:

• He repeatedly promised to veto any gerrymanders when he first ran for office but then signed off on the GOP’s dream maps.
• He's neglected New York City’s subway system, which he’s in charge of, and let it crumble into disrepair—all while trying to place the blame on anyone but himself.
• He brokered a backroom deal in which a group of turncoat Democrats abandoned their party to give control of the state Senate to Republicans, allowing them to block all manner progressive legislation for years.

That last bullet point alone could keep us occupied for days: Cuomo’s unholy alliance with the GOP has prevented passage of bills to expand voting rights, protect access to abortion, establish a state-level DREAM Act, implement genuine ethics reform, and so much more. And it’s been a deliberate choice, too, because Cuomo is simply hostile to progressive aims, and with Republicans in charge of a key choke-point in the legislature, he’s never had to sign liberal laws that would make him uncomfortable.

Holy shyt.