Schulz and Merkel are nearly indistinguishable on most things, the difference is Merkel has a proven track record since Germany has remained as prosperous as one could possibly expect throughout her long term.
German Federal Elections (Merkel remains Chancellor, AfD enters Bundestag, SPD heads the Opposition)
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Schulz and Merkel are nearly indistinguishable on most things, the difference is Merkel has a proven track record since Germany has remained as prosperous as one could possibly expect throughout her long term.
How Merkel’s Win May Hide Rising Discontent
September 21, 2017
Exclusive: With German Chancellor Merkel expected to win reelection on Sunday, the European elites may celebrate having turned back a populist surge, but their neo-liberal policies continue to fuel discontent, says Andrew Spannaus.
By Andrew Spannaus
The citizens of Germany will head to the polls this Sunday, in the last of a series of elections in major European countries this year. Before the voting began, there were fears that populist, anti-system parties could actually win in some cases, in the wake of the victory of last year’s Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. That hasn’t happened, as Marine Le Pen of the National Front was defeated in a run-off in France, and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party failed to break through in Holland.
President Donald J. Trump and Chancellor Angela Merkel on July 7, 2017 (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Germany is also expected to weather the populist storm, with Chancellor Angela Merkel set to be re-elected. Her Christian Democratic Party (CDU/CSU) now holds a comfortable lead over its main competitor, the Social Democrats (SPD), with the other opposition parties far behind. That will give Merkel, a reserved but effective politician who grew up in Communist East Germany, the chance to approach Helmut Kohl’s record as the country’s longest serving leader.
Due to the parliamentary system, which allows numerous smaller parties to send representatives to Berlin, neither of the large parties can win outright, which means that Merkel will need to form a coalition. Her preference would be to take on her party’s historical ally, the Free Democrats, but it is possible she will be forced to continue with a “grand coalition” agreement between the CDU and SPD to share power in the name of stability, while keeping out the parties seen as more extreme.
The most feared of the smaller groupings is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a “populist” party that has grown rapidly in recent years, drawing on economic and social discontent in the mold of other anti-system parties around Europe. The AfD is expected to draw slightly more than 10 percent of the vote, well below the totals for Marine Le Pen in France (21 percent in the first round) or the Five-Star Movement in Italy (25 percent in 2013), and closer to the level of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in Holland (13 percent in the March elections).
Nevertheless, the AfD’s growth has caused consternation around Europe, as the governing elites struggle to explain why even in the country with the continent’s strongest economy, where unemployment is low, and productivity and budget surpluses are high, there has been a rapid increase in populist fervor.
The standard explanation, of course, is xenophobia and racism. Indeed the AfD plays to nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiment, and has increasingly identified itself with right-wing issues. As immigration from the Middle East and Africa has soared in recent years, European countries have struggled with accepting and integrating the new arrivals, causing considerable social tensions.
Germany was at the center of this crisis in 2015, when Merkel went against the grain of public opinion and announced that her country would accept hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers in order to do its part for those less fortunate, in particular refugees from the war in Syria.
It didn’t take long for that policy to change though, as less than a year later Germany was decisive in reaching a deal with President Erdogan of Turkey that ended up limiting immigration by closing the land route towards Europe through the Balkans. The result has been a shift of migrant flows to the sea routes from Northern Africa primarily to Italy and Greece, accompanied by a notable change in attitudes among the respective populations.
Economic Inequality
As with most populist movements throughout the Western world, the issues of immigration and race tell only a part of the story. The Brexit vote was fueled by a reaction against neo-liberal economic policies, effectively summed up by the headline of an article in the English newspaper The Guardian shortly after the referendum in June 2016: “If you’ve got money, you vote in… if you haven’t got money, you vote out.” Decades of economic decline had produced the desire to stick it to the governing elites, and the Brexit vote provided an excellent opportunity to do so.
Syrian women and children refugees at Budapest railway station. (Photo from Wikipedia)
In addition, there has even been academic research demonstrating the obvious, that racial attitudes are influenced by economic hardship, which provides fertile ground for the growth of extremist parties.
The same can be said for the United States, of course, as Donald Trump’s victory was based in large part on his appeal to voters who feel left behind by globalization, and left out by a political system that has favored those at the top. Racist and anti-immigrant sentiment is clearly present, but Trump’s decisive margin came from sectors of the population such as union workers in the Rust Belt, not pro-Confederates in the South.
As for Germany, the question is where the impetus comes for the rise of anti-system political forces, beyond the standard explanation involving immigration and right-wing social issues. With the country considered to be doing so well economically, the narrative doesn’t seem to fit as well.
A clear-eyed analysis, however, makes it clear that the conditions for a revolt of the voters based on economic hardship are present there as well. First there is the eastern part of the country, the former “German Democratic Republic” which belonged to the Communist bloc dominated by the Soviet Union. Despite the claims of great success in the years following German reunification, the reality is that much of the industry in the East was cannibalized by western companies, and a large segment of the population lives on welfare.
The economy of the former Communist country was obviously inefficient and required modernization, but the approach taken by the West was to shut down and sell off whatever was available, leaving the East in a perpetual state of inferiority.
Annual reports published by the German government show that significant disparities persist between the two areas of the country, with higher unemployment, lower wages and less investment in the East. The ownership and control of Germany’s considerable industrial capacity also remains principally in the West.
Exploiting the Unemployed
A second major factor is the system of labor market and welfare reforms introduced in Germany in the 2000s. The most famous is the “Hartz IV” law, which provides unemployment subsidies of just 280 euros ($330) a month, and forces people to accept whatever jobs they are offered, even at only 1-2 euros an hour.
German companies have done very well with this system, that allows them to exploit extremely cheap and flexible labor. Critics points to this as one – although certainly not the only – factor contributing to the great success of German industry in Europe.
For the six million citizens trapped in the system though, things aren’t so great. There are entire areas called “Hartz IV neighborhoods,” indicating widespread socio-economic difficulties among the local population. If we add the high level of “working poor,” a category that has reached 9 percent of the population in Germany, it becomes clear where the populist movements can look for votes on economic issues.
What scares the elites in Europe is that political parties that criticize European Union economic policies will eventually break through, thanks to support among these segments of the population. The E.U. is in fact rightly associated with the monetarist and neo-liberal policies that have contributed to producing greater inequality and thus causing hardship for many across Europe.
In the end, Holland, France and Germany will succeed in keeping the populist parties out of government this year. (Italy will vote in 2018, and the 5-Star Movement is still challenging for the top spot.) The risk is that the European elites may take this as an opportunity to continue with their neo-liberal policies of recent years, which will ultimately only make the situation worse.
Andrew Spannaus is a journalist and strategic analyst based in Milan, Italy. He is the founder of Transatlantico.info, that provides news and analysis to Italian institutions and businesses. He has published the books “Perché vince Trump” (Why Trump is Winning – June 2016) and “La rivolta degli elettori” (The Revolt of the Voters – July 2017).
How do the German elections work?
On September 24, Germans will head out to the polls to choose the 19th Bundestag.
Alia Chughtai | 21 Sep 2017 09:43 GMT | Interactive, Germany, Europe
On September 24, Germans will head out to the polls to choose the 19th Bundestag.
Alia Chughtai | 21 Sep 2017 09:43 GMT | Interactive, Germany, Europe
- Germany has a two-vote system in which eligible citizens vote once for their representative and again for a party. The respective votes do not have to be for the same political party.
Seats where candidates are directly elected make up 299 of the total, and a further 299 are allocated to parties based on their share of the vote. In order to secure a share of seats, a party must hold at least five percent of the overall vote.
The usual number of seats in the Bundestag is 598, but to ensure the share of seats reflects the proportion of the vote a party receives, more seats can be added. In 2013, a further 33 “balance seats” were created.
Once all the members of the Bundestag are in place, they select the federal chancellor, who serves as the head of the parliament. The president of Germany is a ceremonial position.
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
The CDU has held the chancellor's office for 48 of the 68 years since the Federal Republic of Germany was formed. Angela Merkel has led the party since 2005, and while she has come under heavy criticism for her refugee policy, she has also earned plaudits for her fiscal record.
Her platform favours a strong welfare system, high taxes, increased security through stronger state surveillance, and the use of the military to fight threats abroad
Social Democratic Party (SDP)
Germany’s oldest political party was established in 1863 and has seen Germany through the monarchy, two world wars, the rise of Nazism, and the division and reunification of the state. The party was traditionally the strongest opposition to the CDU and led government under former-Chancellor Gerhard Schroder between 1998 and 2005.
The SDP, which is currently in coalition with the CDU, is led by Martin Schulz, who has targeted Merkel over her immigration policy.
The SDP lost North Rhine-Westphalia, in a regional election in May, and is expected to win 23-25 percent of the overall vote.
Die Linke - The Left
Formed in 2007, the Left currently holds 8.6 percent of seats in the parliament. Its platform pledges to tackle the inequities of the capitalist system and champions greater rights for women. The party calls for the world to unite in resistance against profit, war and imperialism, believing that when profit rules there is little space for democracy. It is led by Dietmar Bartsch and Sahra Wagenknecht
Alliance 90/The Greens
The party is a merger between Alliance 90 and the Greens, and like Green parties in other parts of the world, it has had a played a small role in the wider politics of the country.
The main focus of the party is on ecological, economic and social sustainability issues, as well as a broadly leftist platform.
With a sitting minister-president of a state, the party now holds representation in all state governments. On a federal level, the party held 8.4 percent (63 out of 630) of the Bundestag seats.
The Greens usually perform well in university cities and are led by Simone Peter and Cem Ozdemir.
Christian Social Union (CSU - alliance with CDU)
The sister party of the CDU in the Bavarian state: Both take up seats in federal government together, however, the two are independent of each other beyond the federal level.
The CSU tends to be more socially conservative than the CDU, which is a nod to its religious roots but is considered further to the left to its partner on the federal level on social welfare.
Bavarian CSU voters make up seven to 10 percent of the total votes cast and as a result, the CSU is a crucial partner for CDU.
The party generally has a tougher stance on immigration than the CDU and is currently led by Joachim Herrman.
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
The FDP was formed after the second world war through the merger of the German Democratic Party and German People’s Party, and holds the distinction of being in government more than any other party since 1948.
Their presence in government has usually been as coalition partners for the CDU/CSU, but also includes a brief stint with the SDP.
The party is considered to be centrist and in support of the free market and privatisation.
It also places an emphasis on human rights, civil liberties, and internationalism.
It will be contesting the upcoming election under Christian Lindner’s leadership.
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
AfD is a relative young far-right party founded in 2013, which has taken up an anti-immigration and anti-Islam platform.
The party purports to be re-enforcing traditional German values and preserving the German culture.
It currently holds representation in some state parliaments and could enter the Bundestag for the first time under the leadership of Alexander Gauland and Alice Weidel.
Correction: This article previously stated that the AfD holds representation in all state parliaments. This is incorrect. The AfD actually is not represented in all German state parliaments.
Biggest loser is the SPD. They were polling above 30% until 3 months ago.
The greens and the left performed better than expected.
DynamoEAR
All Star
Schulz.
DynamoEAR
All Star
Is it just me or the likes of Merkel,Clinton(her private positions) and May aren't that ideologically different?
Is it just me or the likes of Merkel,Clinton(her private positions) and May aren't that ideologically different?
Nope not much different at all.
13.5 percent for AfD 
this is awful. they did about as well as they possibly could have and theyre gonna be in the german government now.
this is awful. they did about as well as they possibly could have and theyre gonna be in the german government now.
if anything Merkel might be to the left of Clinton and MayIs it just me or the likes of Merkel,Clinton(her private positions) and May aren't that ideologically different?
AfD 
Clinton is to the left of Merkel and May.Is it just me or the likes of Merkel,Clinton(her private positions) and May aren't that ideologically different?
Clearly. In fact she ran the election to the right of her actual positions.
Once again FRAUD1223 with the fukk-shyt.
Clinton is not in synch with Merkel or fukking Teresa May.
Stop the bullshyt.
