How Does Germany’s Blowout of Brazil Compare to Those in Other Sports?
in the NFL would be the equivalent of beating an opponent by nearly 50 more points than expected.
Shifting gears to basketball, the Germans’ victory would be like an NBA team winning by 43 more points than expected.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...t-of-brazil-compare-to-those-of-other-sports/
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Definitely appreciate the attempt at analysis on this outcome but it is unsophisticated in a number of ways, some of which other commenters are mentioning. Here, perhaps, is the most important factor that really needs to be recognized: Brazil and Germany are not just the best international programs in football history, they essentially never are embarrassed in major competitions.
The last time Germany or Brazil failed to get out of the group stage was Brazil in 1966. They have won 8 of the 19 World Cups ever contested. They are not just the clear best two teams in the history of their sport, they never have a "down" cycle. Brazil vs. Germany is the ultimate battle of the titans, and there really is not an analog in other sports because in other sports teams have down periods. But, it's as if the Lakers thrashed the Celtics by 60 in the NBA Finals. Or the Yankees beat the Red Sox by...30 runs in game 7 of an ALCS? Even that is not correct though because those teams do have off-cycles. Here you have the best two programs, the most successful programs, always competitive and frequently exceptional, and one put on the other perhaps the most lopsided result in the sport's history. That doesn't even touch the fact they were undefeated at home for almost 40 years!
It is frankly unprecedented, remarkably historic, and none of the author's examples even come close to touching it.
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There is no comparison or benchmark with what happened yesterday.
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The work put into this is laudable, and while the numerical comparison is helpful, I
still think this does a poor job of contextualizing this for an American audience.
The Jaguars beating the Dophins 62-7, while a statistical analogue (I suppose), doesn't really compare to a nation of 200 million people -- whose national psyche is defined by this sport -- being humiliated at their own game at their own World Cup.
Sure, the outcome odds of GER-BRA and JAX-MIA might have been the same... and yet, they're worlds apart.
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I'm wondering what the equivalent to four goals in six minutes (less, if you factor in celebration time) might be. Four touchdowns in three minutes? Tracy McGrady's 13 points in 35 seconds? The final score was one thing, but the grouping of four goals like that was surreal.
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A comparison might be made with the first game of the 1972 Canada-Russia series in Montreal, the NHL All-Stars against the Soviet's best, held at a time when North American hockey fans were certain that the Soviet's streak of Olympic and World Championship victories were mostly due to the inability of the best Canadian players to participate. Most observers predicted a rout for Team Canada, few believing the Soviets could win more than one of the eight games. Canada scored in the first minute and again in the sixth and a 20-0 score seemed possible to the most optimistic. But the Soviets, in better shape than the NHL stars who had ended their summer early to suddenly train, proved they were world class, winning the game 7-3 and sending a shockwave through Canada's game that reverberated for decades.
One difference was that unlike the game on Tuesday, a knockout semifinal match, in the 1972 series there was time to recover, and Canada did, just barely, and not without controversy -- Neymar's injury pales in comparison with what Bobby Clarke did to Valery Kharlamov. But the long-term result of that game and the ensuing series to Canadian hockey was more reliance on training and coaching, and the realization that the Russian tactics had exposed a real weakness in the stagnant North American game. Brazil will now probably go through the same second look after the Minierazo: their system of play, selection, training, and preparation will all be up for serious change for a generation. I would expect at the very least that Russia will take note and demand to participate in World Cup qualifying even though it has a guaranteed spot in the 2018 tournament. Missing the grueling but team-building 24-month long (!) CONMEBOL qualifying campaign cannot have helped Brazil much.
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This one was TOPS due to the circumstance of Brazil hosting the entire event it had waited decades for and spent billions on. Also, the whole world was watching - unlike the NBA - NFL, NCAA games that were referenced, also - the World was represented in the teams involved with the World Cup - not just USA teams - An Unprecedented Incomparable Event in World Sports History..