Will housing ever be affordable again?

[winb83]

Boomers are holding on to 19 trillion in real estate assets. Millennials have 18 trillion in all assets combined.

Boomers dying will release literal trillions worth of homes into the market for us if they don't get transferred through inheritance. It will meet enough demand for at least 2 generations

Unless you're talking about some massive extinction level event that just targets boomers and wipes them out they are dying gradually. The youngest boomers are 60 but the older ones late 70s approaching 80. I don't think you're going to get a massive wave of boomer deaths to have the supply increase on houses like that.

 

[Dwayne_Taylor]

No. They want you to buy tiny homes on Amazon. That's the best solution we're going to get.

 

[Still Benefited]

They price gouge because they can,so no. At least until people refuse or an alternative comes. Id say 3d printed homes could change the game. But then theyd probably switch it up and say

"yeah the house cost 20K to make,but its the land that went from 60k to 1.2 million"



Houses really need to depreciate like cars,its the key to most of Americas issues

 

[Seoul Gleou]

Unless you're talking about some massive extinction level event that just targets boomers and wipes them out they are dying gradually. The youngest boomers are 60 but the older ones late 70s approaching 80. I don't think you're going to get a massive wave of boomer deaths to have the supply increase on houses like that.

Didn't say it would happen overnight. Don't think that's what OP meant either. You asked if housing will ever be affordable. I said yes and this is how; gradually as boomers die out.

No, at best it will provide housing for one of their kids. And if their kids already own, that will become rental property, people know housing is a huge asset.

I've already baked this response into my post so I don't exactly know what you're arguing.

I'm also not breaking any new ground here; many economists believe this will happen

https://www.fastcompany.com/91047284/housing-market-big-shift-9-million-boomers-sell-homes-by-2035

 

[Vandelay]

Unless there's a significant shock to the existing system, a change in the increase of production and zoning, and quite honestly the way houses are produced...no.

 

[Neuromancer]

No. That's not the plan

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Didn't say it would happen overnight. Don't think that's what OP meant either. He asked if housing will ever be affordable. I said yes and this is how; gradually as boomers die out.


I've already baked this response into my post so I don't exactly know what you're arguing.

I'm also not breaking any new ground here; many economists believe this will happen

https://www.fastcompany.com/91047284/housing-market-big-shift-9-million-boomers-sell-homes-by-2035

This article says demand is likely to increase past what boomers unlock, which was my original statement. You got a lot of millennials who don’t own, and by 2035 gen z will be 25-37, these two cohorts will still have more demand than supply. Furthermore it’s not just supply retraining ownership, it’s salaries that aren’t keeping up and nothing points to that turning around. Home ownership is not going to get cheaper unless there’s a huge paradigm shift to more multifamily housing and Americans start accepting that everyone can’t have a 3000 sq fr SFH (especially to house only 2-3 people)

 

[Dameon Farrow]

Yeah when it gets bad enough to require caps. Greedflation is outta control with stuff like that.

Caps aren't popular. But niether is pricing everybody out of everything for the hell of it. Something has to shake. And it will require government intervention.

Folks throw their hands up at that but my thing is this. Folks hate to be told how to roll but love squeezing pennies out of folks. At some point it reaches a boiling point.

The non intervention solution is to be fair and reasonable. But that scares folks in power.

 

[Luke Cage]

not in the big cities everybody tries to cram into.

Supply and Demand.

Housing still cheap af in the majority of the country. Just gotta commute a lil further

 

[Seoul Gleou]

This article says demand is likely to increase past what boomers unlock, which was my original statement. You got a lot of millennials who don’t own, and by 2035 gen z will be 25-37, these two cohorts will still have more demand than supply. Furthermore it’s not just supply retraining ownership, it’s salaries that aren’t keeping up and nothing points to that turning around. Home ownership is not going to get cheaper unless there’s a huge paradigm shift to more multifamily housing and Americans start accepting that everyone can’t have a 3000 sq fr SFH (especially to house only 2-3 people)

“In the 2030s, [housing] demand will start falling because Gen Zs will make a smaller cohort than millennials plus will face a steeper affordability challenge. At the same time, supply will increase as boomers age.”

The forecasts say there will be a supply increase as boomers age (die). Prices will decline as a result as will demand.

We're also talking about the US. Where regulations are so lax that strippers and minimum wage workers owned homes before the financial crises in 08. It wouldn't be inconceivable to believe wages and house affordability converge again.

Finally, we aren't talking about types of houses but houses, period. If someone can afford a duplex or condo, that's what they can afford. Multi-families are a different conversation

You aren't exactly showing how housing stays unaffordable, like OP is wondering.

 

[Givethanks]

Threads full of doom and gloom lol.

You can buy, it's just not how we all think it's gonna happen. Yesterday's world is yesterday, and today is today. Gotta adapt, or get left behind tbh.

I know guys who get frustrated about how expensive life, which is okay. But idk where they get this idea that they life wasn't going to be hard especially when they didn't pick up a trade, go to school or grind out at a job for minute.

The Situation depends, like where I'm from you have to leave the city and move to some bumfukk town. The good news about that is they're developing areas pretty quickly.

 

[Elim Garak]

If we put the right people in power yes.

 

[Formerly Black Trash]

“In the 2030s, [housing] demand will start falling because Gen Zs will make a smaller cohort than millennials plus will face a steeper affordability challenge. At the same time, supply will increase as boomers age.”

The forecasts say there will be a supply increase as boomers age (die). Prices will decline as a result as will demand.

We're also talking about the US. Where regulations are so lax that strippers and minimum wage workers owned homes before the financial crises in 08. It wouldn't be inconceivable to believe wages and house affordability converge again.

Finally, we aren't talking about types of houses but houses, period. If someone can afford a duplex or condo, that's what they can afford. Multi-families are a different conversation

You aren't exactly showing how housing stays unaffordable, like OP is wondering.

Why you focus on strippers?

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

“In the 2030s, [housing] demand will start falling because Gen Zs will make a smaller cohort than millennials plus will face a steeper affordability challenge. At the same time, supply will increase as boomers age.”

The forecasts say there will be a supply increase as boomers age (die). Prices will decline as a result as will demand.

We're also talking about the US. Where regulations are so lax that strippers and minimum wage workers owned homes before the financial crises in 08. It wouldn't be inconceivable to believe wages and house affordability converge again.

Finally, we aren't talking about types of houses but houses, period. If someone can afford a duplex or condo, that's what they can afford. Multi-families are a different conversation

You aren't exactly showing how housing stays unaffordable, like OP is wondering.

“In our October 2023 Outlook, we presented estimates showing that there were as many as 2 million potential additional households in the millennial generation. Along with increases from Gen Z, total housing demand over the next few years is likely to continue to increase even as the boomers continue to exit the market. Over at least the next five years, we expect the increase in the young adult homeowner households to more than offset the decline in boomer homeowner households,” wrote Freddie Mac economists.

If you get into real research on this topic, not just digetiabme magazine articles, demand from 2 low ownership generations is going to outpace supply from boomers.

And yes, it is inconceivable wages and affordability will converge. The gap has been growing since the 70’s. Those loose lending practices aren’t coming back, not because they hurt consumers, but because banks and financial institutions lost as well, they’re not gonna lose again

 

[ogc163]

Only if YIMBY's keep pushing the issue and it becomes a major part of the zeitgeist that building more is a net positive.

And that can be accelerated when the Boomers die and Millenials replace them as the most influential demo.

Further, interest rates will come down eventually making the costs of development lower.

Plus, with DINK's and a desire for cosmopolitanianism being prevalent amongst millenials the single family protectionist bias will likely decrease.

But the main thing that could potentially undermine building more is if Millenials end up taking on the same silly ass NIMBY stances that their parents did.

However, even if NIMBYism remains popular throughout the country there is still going to be exceptions like Texas where they continue to build quickly and are attracting new residents partially because of the lower housing costs. Further, I expect Millenials and Gen-Z to be more willing to relocate out of the major metros with the rise of remote work and not having kids giving them greater flexibility.

And so, it may take awhile but I figure prices will come down.