Considering how he played in the playoffs, anything below the cap hold was going to be a win. He just needs to do it consistently going forward, which is a big "if". But he legit could improve still too.
D-Lo should have the higher ceiling, but this is 100% true if we're going off of last year's postseason. He hit his threes and he played his role on defense, which is all they needed him to do and is a lot more than D-Lo did. And now he's a guy who has experienced back-to-back postseason runs and won't be shook in the Finals. For the contract this is a solid pickup.
Knowing the Lakers, he better not shoot 30% from 3pt last year like some of these guys have the moment they came to LA.
Those would both be useful.
It's a big jump from "became nearly unplayable" to "worth at least 20 million".
He needs serious work on his hands and his shot to be a useful player. His defense is nice but opposing teams in a playoff series figure him out too easy. You can't have someone who is a complete liability at one end in today's NBA - he needs to be come a league-average shooter or an elite rim-runner or a very good passer or something, otherwise he's gonna get played off the court again.
I can't see him missing out on $50 million. Lakers are still going to take care of him. He's getting an offer at least within $20-30 million of what he was going to get on the open market.