the arab spring script is real simple and easy to follow
- secular dictatorship is over thrown
- islamist parties rise to power as they are the only mechanism for mobilization, and have established networks in place
- islamicization of society begins
- islamists over play their hand, lack the political maturity and experience to democratize
- democratic backlash, govt crackdown, democratic society overwhelms
this is all contingent on the existence of a strong civil society and no foreign interference
iran is on step 5...the backlash is fierce, but they will over come
egypt is on step 2