Vladimir Putin admits to 360,000 “irretrievable” losses in Ukraine. Trumps special envoy to Ukraine confirms Russians losing 5 times more troops.
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More Russian troops killed in Ukraine than previously thought, leaked US documents suggest
Between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were killed, injured, or captured by mid-June, The Economist reported on July 5, citing leaked documents from the U.S. Defense Department.
kyivindependent.com
Leaked documents suggest more Russians killed in Ukraine than previously thought
by Kateryna Hodunova and The Kyiv Independent news deskJuly 7, 2024 2:35 PM2 min read
Russian soldiers patrol a street on April 11, 2022, in Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast. The picture was taken during a trip organized by the Russian military. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images)
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Between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were killed, injured, or captured by mid-June, The Economist reported on July 5, citing leaked documents from the U.S. Defense Department.
These numbers exceed the number of Russian troops who were preparing for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia's losses in Ukraine since 2022 exceed the number of cumulative casualties the country faced in military conflicts since the Second World War.
On July 5, Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona published a report indicating that approximately 120,000 Russian troops have been killed since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine's General Staff estimates that the Russian military's personnel losses surpassed 500,000 in late May. This number includes both killed and injured.
For every Russian killed in action, there are about three to four wounded, according to The Economist.
Among those who suffered the most significant losses were Russians aged 35 to 39. During the entire period of the invasion, up to 27,000 people from this age group were killed, according to The Economist's calculations.
Regarding the percentage ratio, the most serious losses were among the Russian male population aged 45 to 49.
"The latest estimates suggest that roughly 2% of all Russian men aged between 20 and 50 may have been either killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war," the article said.
Around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 25.
The announcement is the first time Zelensky has publicly stated a figure on the death toll of Ukrainian soldiers since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Russia continues to recruit 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month, the New York Times (NYT) reported, citing U.S. officials.
This amount is enough to replenish troops and allows the Russian army to continue to carry out human wave-style attacks, the NYT said.
1/15
1/ Russian soldiers are still being sent to fight in Ukraine with broken legs, despite protests from Russian milbloggers. Meanwhile, injured soldiers who recorded a video last week have had their crutches taken away or have been sent to a torture camp.
2/15
2/ The Russian blogger Anatasia Kashevarova reports that after a video was recorded by 50 injured soldiers in Ukraine, "more messages came about sending untreated mobilised/contract soldiers to the front from the Samara region and from other regions."
3/15
3/ The picture at the top of this thread shows a man with an external fixator on his leg, who Kashevarova says is waiting in the Samara region settlement of Roshchinsky for a bus to take him to the 'Donetsk People's Republic' in Ukraine.
4/15
4/ "This is the attitude towards Russian men," she complains. "You should not only fight others, but also protect your own. They are defending you, and you treat them so shabbily."
5/15
5/ "How can all our officials have the conscience to go to events, to make speeches, to speak high-minded words when they cannot solve real problems? When Russian Vanya stands on one leg near the bus, smokes, and goes back [to war].
6/15
6/ "Sleep well, he will defend you today on one leg, while you on two can't get your ass in gear and solve problems in the rear."
7/15
7/ The future of the original group who complained on video is still uncertain. Kashevarova says that commanders initially tried to claim that the men were a "special contingent" (i.e. convicts) and were therefore "not entitled to anything."
8/15
8/ However, she says, they are "a hodgepodge, not only prisoners, but also ordinary contract soldiers/volunteers." She reports that "a general came to their location and told [local commanders] to correct the situation. To divert attention, it was corrected."
9/15
9/ "But as soon as everything calmed down, some commanders again began to behave as before."
10/15
10/ Relatives have told her that after an inspection they were sent to a hospital and their phones were confiscated. Subsequently, despite their injuries, they "had their crutches taken away and are being discharged", presumably to be sent back to the battlefield.
11/15
11/ The man who spoke on the video is reportedly being punished more severely. Kashevarova names him as Artem Sharipov and says that he has been taken "to the military commandant's office in Zaitseve" in the Luhansk region. This has become a notorious place of detention.
12/15
12/ Many reports over the past 18 months have identified the basement of the House of Culture (community centre) in Zaitseve as the site of a joint Army-FSB facility where recalcitrant soldiers are starved and tortured to 'remotivate' them.
13/15
13/ As Kashevarova comments, Zaitseve "has already earned itself such a reputation that the basements of the Lubyanka [the infamous HQ of the KGB and now FSB] are resting."
14/15
14/ Meanwhile, Kashevarova reports, the authorities of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' are also intervening by "checking units... for under-treated fighters." However, "the command is trying to hide them." /end
15/15
Sources:
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
1/ Russian soldiers are still being sent to fight in Ukraine with broken legs, despite protests from Russian milbloggers. Meanwhile, injured soldiers who recorded a video last week have had their crutches taken away or have been sent to a torture camp.
2/15
2/ The Russian blogger Anatasia Kashevarova reports that after a video was recorded by 50 injured soldiers in Ukraine, "more messages came about sending untreated mobilised/contract soldiers to the front from the Samara region and from other regions."
3/15
3/ The picture at the top of this thread shows a man with an external fixator on his leg, who Kashevarova says is waiting in the Samara region settlement of Roshchinsky for a bus to take him to the 'Donetsk People's Republic' in Ukraine.
4/15
4/ "This is the attitude towards Russian men," she complains. "You should not only fight others, but also protect your own. They are defending you, and you treat them so shabbily."
5/15
5/ "How can all our officials have the conscience to go to events, to make speeches, to speak high-minded words when they cannot solve real problems? When Russian Vanya stands on one leg near the bus, smokes, and goes back [to war].
6/15
6/ "Sleep well, he will defend you today on one leg, while you on two can't get your ass in gear and solve problems in the rear."
7/15
7/ The future of the original group who complained on video is still uncertain. Kashevarova says that commanders initially tried to claim that the men were a "special contingent" (i.e. convicts) and were therefore "not entitled to anything."
8/15
8/ However, she says, they are "a hodgepodge, not only prisoners, but also ordinary contract soldiers/volunteers." She reports that "a general came to their location and told [local commanders] to correct the situation. To divert attention, it was corrected."
9/15
9/ "But as soon as everything calmed down, some commanders again began to behave as before."
10/15
10/ Relatives have told her that after an inspection they were sent to a hospital and their phones were confiscated. Subsequently, despite their injuries, they "had their crutches taken away and are being discharged", presumably to be sent back to the battlefield.
11/15
11/ The man who spoke on the video is reportedly being punished more severely. Kashevarova names him as Artem Sharipov and says that he has been taken "to the military commandant's office in Zaitseve" in the Luhansk region. This has become a notorious place of detention.
12/15
12/ Many reports over the past 18 months have identified the basement of the House of Culture (community centre) in Zaitseve as the site of a joint Army-FSB facility where recalcitrant soldiers are starved and tortured to 'remotivate' them.
13/15
13/ As Kashevarova comments, Zaitseve "has already earned itself such a reputation that the basements of the Lubyanka [the infamous HQ of the KGB and now FSB] are resting."
14/15
14/ Meanwhile, Kashevarova reports, the authorities of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' are also intervening by "checking units... for under-treated fighters." However, "the command is trying to hide them." /end
15/15
Sources:
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
1/31
1/ Badly wounded Russian soldiers, some on crutches, are being sent to fight in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers say it is because of huge losses and shortages of personnel, as well as bureaucratic mismanagement and the military's culture of lying to superiors.
2/31
2/ The Russian blogger Anatasia Kashevarova (a former adviser to State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and then to the LDPR party) has posted an angry denunciation of the army's treatment of the men of the 26th Tank Regiment, based in Mulino in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
3/31
3/ A recent video shows visibly injured men on crutches pleading to be taken out of the battlefield. According to Kashevarova, they are from the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Guards Tank Division. They address their appeal to Putin and the military prosecutor's office.
4/31
4/ The men, who number about 50, say that they are wounded, still using crutches and plaster casts, have not been fully treated and have not undergone the required rehabilitation or 45-day medical leave. Nonetheless they are still being sent on combat missions.
5/31
5/ They say that field doctors are "shrugging their shoulders" at the situation, which they blame on their commanders. They are currently in the second line but say that they will be sent to the front line in a few days' time.
6/31
6/ Kashevarova says this is a systemic problem which has been going on for "quite a long time". She writes:
7/31
7/ "This is not a problem with the medics and the military-medical commission (although such problems also exist, I am not hiding it), this is a problem with specific commanders who don't care about doctors' instructions, referrals to hospitals and planned operations – …
8/31
8/ "…they load guys into cars by deceit (assuring them that they are taking them to the command for some documents and leave) and send them to the front. Why? What will they do there? What is this image of turbulent activity?
9/31
9/ "What incredible value does a fighter on crutches have on the front line? I understand, maybe not feeling sorry for specific people, but turn on logic, turn on practical considerations: these people on the front line are simply useless!
10/31
10/ "Give them a chance to heal, to rest, and they can be useful. What you are doing now is just a useless, cynical waste of people."
11/31
11/ Kashevarova says that she is making a complaint to the military prosecutor's office and she has "a record of which of them file complaints, so unscrupulous commanders will not be able to quickly send them to the front line and hide the traces of their dubious activities".
12/31
12/ Other Russian milbloggers have also commented on the video. The pseudonymous Vault 8, calls it "the most vile and treacherous phenomenon, undermining the authority of the command and the RF Armed Forces as a whole in our own eyes as servicemen – …
13/31
13/ "… when individual butcher-commanders scoop out from permanent posts and hospitals everyone who is destined for a long recovery and simply send them for useless disposal."
14/31
14/ He asks "how can you trust commanders if:
- You were told that there would be no mobilisation – and you were mobilised.
- They freeze you in place without a reasonable term of service.
- You get seriously wounded in this war...
15/31
15/ "- And not only are you not demobilised, but in some cases you are sent to your death without being fully healed.
16/31
16/ "This practice of individual commanders and chiefs of staff must be firmly stopped, because so far it is the most treacherous and treacherous blow (one can't call it anything else but treachery) against our [soldiers] from their own side."
17/31
17/ Natalia Kurchatova comments that "the situation with neurological problems is especially difficult, when, for example, a person’s arms and legs are formally in place, but they do not function properly.
18/31
18/ In my memory, they tried to send a volunteer to the front, who had shrapnel that injured the spinal cord and was stuck in the spine: his legs were paralysed, his blood pressure was going through the roof, and he was told, roughly speaking: go to the front with your shrapnel…
19/31
19/ "…and don’t show off. It was a whole saga just to remove this shrapnel from the person."
Svyatoslav Golikov blames "crooked bureaucratic collisions." He writes:
20/31
20/ "Semi-disabled casualties continue to remain in service due to the current prohibition on discharge, minus exceptional circumstances that still have to be justified, including obtaining the "D" category of fitness.
21/31
21/ "In addition, by remaining in a military unit, a person receives medical treatment, whereas in the case of dismissal, the prospect is blurred. In fact, such people are not able to fulfil their duties properly.
22/31
22/ "Furthermore, the early discharge of untreated servicemen is directly affected by hospitals being overloaded.
23/31
23/ "At the same time, people, including those in fitness category "G", tend to be returned to the places of temporary deployment of units in the Special Military Operation zone, which in itself is not very favourable,…
24/31
24/ "…plus all the facilities of the nearby rear are in the kill zone of enemy remote high-precision weapons.
25/31
25/ "Finally, due to excessive losses in active units engaged in active combat operations, the number of personnel (primarily assault units) regularly drops, which cannot be promptly replenished by marching reinforcements [to the front].
26/31
26/ "Hence the practice of early return of people to the front line on the principle of 'everyone who can somehow hold a weapon'. It is quite natural that this practice does not contribute in any way to improving the effectiveness of combat work and motivation of the personnel."
27/31
27/ Kashevarova attributes the situation to "false reports that hide the real balance of forces and the number of personnel." (False reporting is a long-standing problem for the Russian military, as the thread below discusses.)
28/31
28/ "Because of reports that everyone went on leave, that more than 500,000 contractors and volunteers came (although we remember how contractors were recruited -–they forced mobilised people to sign), because of the real shortage of fighters at the front.
29/31
29/ "Will any of the military experts tell us – how many people are in a platoon now? How many are in a company? A battalion? How many are in a regiment, and how many are in a division?
30/31
30/ "We can have a platoon of 3 people, and a hundred in a regiment, and in a division less than a thousand.
31/31
31/ "But in reports they do not write real numbers, they write battalions/brigades/divisions, and no one goes into detail about the fact that the name does not reflect the number [of personnel]."
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
1/ Badly wounded Russian soldiers, some on crutches, are being sent to fight in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers say it is because of huge losses and shortages of personnel, as well as bureaucratic mismanagement and the military's culture of lying to superiors.
2/31
2/ The Russian blogger Anatasia Kashevarova (a former adviser to State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and then to the LDPR party) has posted an angry denunciation of the army's treatment of the men of the 26th Tank Regiment, based in Mulino in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
3/31
3/ A recent video shows visibly injured men on crutches pleading to be taken out of the battlefield. According to Kashevarova, they are from the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Guards Tank Division. They address their appeal to Putin and the military prosecutor's office.
4/31
4/ The men, who number about 50, say that they are wounded, still using crutches and plaster casts, have not been fully treated and have not undergone the required rehabilitation or 45-day medical leave. Nonetheless they are still being sent on combat missions.
5/31
5/ They say that field doctors are "shrugging their shoulders" at the situation, which they blame on their commanders. They are currently in the second line but say that they will be sent to the front line in a few days' time.
6/31
6/ Kashevarova says this is a systemic problem which has been going on for "quite a long time". She writes:
7/31
7/ "This is not a problem with the medics and the military-medical commission (although such problems also exist, I am not hiding it), this is a problem with specific commanders who don't care about doctors' instructions, referrals to hospitals and planned operations – …
8/31
8/ "…they load guys into cars by deceit (assuring them that they are taking them to the command for some documents and leave) and send them to the front. Why? What will they do there? What is this image of turbulent activity?
9/31
9/ "What incredible value does a fighter on crutches have on the front line? I understand, maybe not feeling sorry for specific people, but turn on logic, turn on practical considerations: these people on the front line are simply useless!
10/31
10/ "Give them a chance to heal, to rest, and they can be useful. What you are doing now is just a useless, cynical waste of people."
11/31
11/ Kashevarova says that she is making a complaint to the military prosecutor's office and she has "a record of which of them file complaints, so unscrupulous commanders will not be able to quickly send them to the front line and hide the traces of their dubious activities".
12/31
12/ Other Russian milbloggers have also commented on the video. The pseudonymous Vault 8, calls it "the most vile and treacherous phenomenon, undermining the authority of the command and the RF Armed Forces as a whole in our own eyes as servicemen – …
13/31
13/ "… when individual butcher-commanders scoop out from permanent posts and hospitals everyone who is destined for a long recovery and simply send them for useless disposal."
14/31
14/ He asks "how can you trust commanders if:
- You were told that there would be no mobilisation – and you were mobilised.
- They freeze you in place without a reasonable term of service.
- You get seriously wounded in this war...
15/31
15/ "- And not only are you not demobilised, but in some cases you are sent to your death without being fully healed.
16/31
16/ "This practice of individual commanders and chiefs of staff must be firmly stopped, because so far it is the most treacherous and treacherous blow (one can't call it anything else but treachery) against our [soldiers] from their own side."
17/31
17/ Natalia Kurchatova comments that "the situation with neurological problems is especially difficult, when, for example, a person’s arms and legs are formally in place, but they do not function properly.
18/31
18/ In my memory, they tried to send a volunteer to the front, who had shrapnel that injured the spinal cord and was stuck in the spine: his legs were paralysed, his blood pressure was going through the roof, and he was told, roughly speaking: go to the front with your shrapnel…
19/31
19/ "…and don’t show off. It was a whole saga just to remove this shrapnel from the person."
Svyatoslav Golikov blames "crooked bureaucratic collisions." He writes:
20/31
20/ "Semi-disabled casualties continue to remain in service due to the current prohibition on discharge, minus exceptional circumstances that still have to be justified, including obtaining the "D" category of fitness.
21/31
21/ "In addition, by remaining in a military unit, a person receives medical treatment, whereas in the case of dismissal, the prospect is blurred. In fact, such people are not able to fulfil their duties properly.
22/31
22/ "Furthermore, the early discharge of untreated servicemen is directly affected by hospitals being overloaded.
23/31
23/ "At the same time, people, including those in fitness category "G", tend to be returned to the places of temporary deployment of units in the Special Military Operation zone, which in itself is not very favourable,…
24/31
24/ "…plus all the facilities of the nearby rear are in the kill zone of enemy remote high-precision weapons.
25/31
25/ "Finally, due to excessive losses in active units engaged in active combat operations, the number of personnel (primarily assault units) regularly drops, which cannot be promptly replenished by marching reinforcements [to the front].
26/31
26/ "Hence the practice of early return of people to the front line on the principle of 'everyone who can somehow hold a weapon'. It is quite natural that this practice does not contribute in any way to improving the effectiveness of combat work and motivation of the personnel."
27/31
27/ Kashevarova attributes the situation to "false reports that hide the real balance of forces and the number of personnel." (False reporting is a long-standing problem for the Russian military, as the thread below discusses.)
28/31
28/ "Because of reports that everyone went on leave, that more than 500,000 contractors and volunteers came (although we remember how contractors were recruited -–they forced mobilised people to sign), because of the real shortage of fighters at the front.
29/31
29/ "Will any of the military experts tell us – how many people are in a platoon now? How many are in a company? A battalion? How many are in a regiment, and how many are in a division?
30/31
30/ "We can have a platoon of 3 people, and a hundred in a regiment, and in a division less than a thousand.
31/31
31/ "But in reports they do not write real numbers, they write battalions/brigades/divisions, and no one goes into detail about the fact that the name does not reflect the number [of personnel]."
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
PM Modi-Putin meeting: Russia agrees to discharge all Indians recruited by its army
Reports claimed that during a private dinner hosted by Vladimir Putin on Monday night, PM Narendra Modi brought up the issue.
PM Modi-Putin meeting: Russia agrees to discharge all Indians recruited by its army
By HT News Desk | Edited by Aniruddha DharJul 09, 2024 10:26 AM IST
Reports claimed that during a private dinner hosted by Vladimir Putin on Monday night, PM Narendra Modi brought up the issue.
Russia has agreed to discharge all Indian nationals working in its army following discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin during Modi's visit to Moscow, news agency ANI reported citing unnamed sources.
At least two Indian citizens have lost their lives while fighting in Russia's conflict against Ukraine, and many others stuck in the war zone allege they were deceived into joining the combat.
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The sources indicated that during a private dinner hosted by Vladimir Putin on Monday night, PM Narendra Modi brought up the issue. In response, Russia consented to discharge all Indians serving in their military and to assist with their return.
Reuters reported that a top Indian official told the news agency last week that fixing India's trade imbalance with Russia and securing the discharge of Indian citizens who were “misled” into fighting in the Ukraine war would be among Modi's top priorities in Moscow.
Speaking about the Indians recruited for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sources said India would raise the issue in the strongest terms, news agency PTI earlier reported.
"We want the expeditious discharge of Indians fighting in the Ukrainian conflict from the Russian military," PTI quoted an unnamed source as saying.
While reports have suggested that up to 200 Indian nationals had been recruited by the Russian military to serve as support staff, such as cooks and helpers, the people cited above said the number could be about 100. However, it has been difficult for Indian authorities to establish contact with Indian nationals who are believed to be serving on the frontlines because of the frequent movement of military units and the lack of proper communications, the people said.
The external affairs ministry had earlier urged Indian citizens to “exercise caution while seeking employment opportunities in Russia”.
Many Indian nationals were duped by recruiting agents based in Indian cities and Dubai into taking up jobs with the Russian military. Besides the four deaths, several Indians have been injured. Indians have also posted videos on social media seeking help to get out of such jobs.
The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) recently busted a human trafficking network spread across several states that lured gullible young men through social media channels and agents with the promise of highly paid jobs in Russia.
A viral video earlier this year showed a group of men from Punjab and Haryana - wearing army uniforms - claiming they were tricked into fighting the war in Ukraine and doubling down on their request for help.
Modi, Putin hold talks amid outrage over Ukraine strikes
PM Narendra Modi is set to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, a day after the Indian leader arrived in Moscow amid global outcry over Russian strikes in Ukraine.Modi, visiting Moscow for the first time since Russia launched its campaign in Ukraine in February 2022, will seek to nurture New Delhi's long-standing relationship with Moscow.
At the same time, he is courting closer Western security ties after being returned to power last month.
"There are no surprises in preparation. The main thing is to create an atmosphere for meaningful interaction," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state TV when asked about the talks.
(With inputs from agencies)
NATO discusses reclaiming Chinese-owned infrastructure amid Russia conflict concerns
NATO officials are considering reclaiming Chinese-owned infrastructure in Europe if conflicts with Russia escalate. Initially welcomed post-financial crisis, these investments are now seen as potential threats due to Beijing's support for Russia in the Ukraine war. The US is leading discussions...
Mister Terrific
It’s in the name
The Fukin Prophecy
RIP Champ
Ruskies made gains on the ground but been taking massive Ls using the WWII strategy of send everyone forward with complete disregard…Their casualty number is def north of 500k at this point…They’ll break a million by the end of the year…
This says everything that needs to be said in this thread whenever the topic of which side is “winning” comes up…
Slaimon Khan Shah
SLAIMON KHAN SHAH = SHAOLIN MONK/S OF ISLAAM
PLEASE / THANK YOU
RickyDiBiase
The Sword of Jesus of Nazareth
Russia Is Storing Up a Crime Wave When Its War on Ukraine Ends
Russia has sent so many men to join its war in Ukraine that crime levels in the country fell soon after the invasion began. Now their return is starting to unleash a wave of offending.www.bloomberg.com
Russia Is Storing Up a Crime Wave When Its War on Ukraine Ends
- Court data in Russia shows a spike in crimes by servicemen
- Convicts recruited to fight in war start to return to Russia
A billboard advertising contract services in the Russian army, in Moscow.Source: AFP/Getty Images
By Bloomberg News
June 22, 2024 at 2:00 AM EDT
Russia has sent so many men to join its war in Ukraine that crime levels in the country fell soon after the invasion began. Now their return is starting to unleash a wave of offending.
Crimes committed by servicemen that aren’t linked to the war increased by more than 20% last year, according to data from Russia’s Supreme Court. While the overall numbers are still small and many returning servicemembers don’t go onto commit offenses, there was a jump in cases of violent crimes as well as thefts and drug-related transgressions.
The figures exclude crimes involving tens of thousands of convicts released from jail to join the war under a program set up by the late Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Those who survived six months at the front were able to gain a pardon from President Vladimir Putin and return to Russia as free men.
In prison, “they are treated like ‘we are nothing,’ then it all gets even worse at the front,” said Kazan-based sociologist Iskender Yasaveev. “The experience they return with is a trauma that will manifest itself for decades.”
Sociologists have long noted that crime levels often surge following the end of military conflicts, and researchers have looked at many possible causes for this from social disruption to trauma faced by soldiers. Russia is unlikely to buck that trend after Putin ordered the February 2022 invasion that triggered Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. The return of prisoners who fought for Wagner is offering an early signal of what may lie in store once hundreds of thousands of men brutalized by the fighting return to civilian life.
While lower-level crimes fell, the number of murders and sex offenses, particularly against children, hasn’t declined in the past two years. Indecent assault against minors surged by 62% compared to the prewar period, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Supreme Court data.
A Wagner mercenary group member in 2023.Photographer: Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images/AP Photo
The return of Wagner recruits to Russia has proved a shock to residents of cities and villages who discover men they thought were serving long jail terms living among them. People convicted of murder, and even cannibalism, have been among those pardoned.
Before his death in a plane crash after he led an abortive mutiny against the Defense Ministry’s leadership in June last year, Prigozhin claimed 32,000 convicts he’d recruited had returned to Russia from the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to widespread public disquiet by telling reporters in November that criminals pardoned by Putin “atone with their blood for their crime on the battlefield.”
Still, a law that took effect in March quietly removed the right to a pardon after six months of service, forcing criminals who join up to remain in the military until the end of the war, like others drafted into the army.
Nevertheless they return, often by deserting. Crimes involving the military increased fourfold to 4,409 in 2023 compared to 2021, the Supreme Court data show.
Russian soldiers in Mariupol, Ukraine, during a tour organized by the Russian military in 2022.Photographer: Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images
One deserter, Artyom, said he fled after half his squad of assault troops were killed during four months in Ukraine. The 34-year-old, who asked not to be identified by his family name, joined the army to escape harsh treatment in the prison colony where he was serving a sentence for drug trafficking. Nobody told him the service was indefinite, he said.
The law that ended pardons also allows the Defense Ministry to enlist not only convicts but also people held in pre-trial detention. Russia Behind Bars, a prisoners’ rights group, estimates as many as 175,000 former prisoners in total were taken to fight on the battlefield.
A postwar surge in crime may cost Russia as much as 0.6% of its gross-domestic product, said Alex Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics. Alongside the direct costs to life and property, the state will face higher spending on welfare and security, especially on police, he said.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
Anxious to avoid a repeat of the September 2022 draft of 300,000 reservists that prompted a spike in public anxiety over the war, the Kremlin is relying instead on generous payments to persuade men to join the army. Contract soldiers are offered monthly payments of 204,000 rubles ($2,300) in addition to signing bonuses that can reach as much as 1 million rubles.
That’s helped contribute to a short-term decline in crime particularly in Russian provinces. The slide in recorded crimes was three times greater in areas with high recruitment into the army, compared with regions with only moderate levels, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.
“Economic crimes such as theft and robbery, which are associated with poverty, have decreased because the war has poured money into the poorest regions and the poorest segments of the population,” says sociologist and crime researcher Ekaterina Khodzhaeva.
Russian courts dealt with almost 62,000 fewer cases last year than in 2021, and the number of convicts fell by 2%. Police numbers have also fallen in many regions, suggesting fewer were available to solve crimes, as people abandoned poorly paid jobs for more lucrative military service.
The Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in May there’s a shortfall of 152,000 officers across Russia, with one in four positions vacant in some regions.
That’s likely to add to the challenges facing the authorities in curbing crime as increasing numbers of convicts return from the war to civilian life.
“Like any other veteran, they are likely to have post-traumatic stress disorder,” said Anna Kuleshova, a sociologist at the Social Foresight Group. “That’s coupled with a previous experience of incarceration, all of which combine and can lead to difficulties with integrating into society.”
— With assistance from Sylvia Westall
Motherfukker just gave his own country it's version of Vietnam Veterans inside of two years.