Vladimir Putin admits to 360,000 “irretrievable” losses in Ukraine. Trumps special envoy to Ukraine confirms Russians losing 5 times more troops.

[the elastic]

Spoiler: full text

1/1
Literally decimated, folks. Not a joke.


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MSN

MSN

Decimated is the most frustratingly misused word I see.

 

[Savvir]

I forgot Assad existed

I remember when the media was making him out to be the next big thing

US military intervention and support for the Kurds is what prevented him from being the next big thing

 

[the elastic]

US military intervention and support for the Kurds is what prevented him from being the next big thing

It's all coming back to me


The Kurds were like the Ukraine at the time

 

[Mister Terrific]

“Immoral, but effective”: how and at what cost the Wagner PMC captured Bakhmut​

Of the almost 20 thousand Wagnerites who died during the assault on the Ukrainian Bakhmut, more than 17 thousand were prisoners taken to the front from Russian colonies and pre-trial detention centers. The BBC and Mediazona (in the Russian registry of “foreign agents”) gained access to the personal data of these people and found out that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s statements about losses during the capture of the city, which were met with disapproval even by z-bloggers, were greatly embellished.

Wagner Archive​

One of the most famous videos with the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was filmed in May 2023. Against the backdrop of two dozen corpses of his fighters, Prigozhin shouts into the camera “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the ammunition?

Then Prigozhin argued that the large losses of mercenaries during the assault on Bakhmut were primarily due to the sluggishness of the Ministry of Defense and the lack of shells. But our data shows that Wagner suffered its highest daily losses - 200-213 people every day - much earlier, in January 2023.

Prigozhin later admitted that he killed 20 thousand mercenaries in the battles for Bakhmut. He claimed that only half of them were prisoners.

“During the operation, I selected 50,000 prisoners, of whom about 20% died. Exactly as many of them died as those who came to us under a contract, without zones,” Prigozhin said shortly after the capture of the city in an interview with pro-Kremlin political strategist Konstantin Dolgov.
The BBC and Mediazona received a complete list with personal data of 19,547 dead Wagnerites, of which not 50% were prisoners, as Prigozhin claimed, but all 88% - that’s 17,175.

These are documents confirming the payment of compensation in the amount of 5 million rubles, due for the death of an employee under a standard contract with the Wagner PMC. Our source received these lists of “coffins” in August 2023, shortly after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

We do not have data on salaries and payments for injuries.

This is the most significant source of data on Wagner losses that we have as part of the project to calculate Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. In all cases, we know the call signs, badge numbers and dates of death of these people, as well as most of the names. The list lacks a little more than a thousand names (6% of all “Wagnerites” mentioned in the document), but this does not create obstacles to analyzing losses by day and category of the dead - the badge clearly shows whether the person was recruited from a colony or “from civilian life.”

Even the figures officially announced by Prigozhin prevented the Ministry of Defense’s plans to fill the information space with discussions about the meaning of “victory” in the operation to capture Bakhmut.

Instead, everyone, including Russian war bloggers, discussed the losses and argued whether commanders should receive medals for the capture of Bakhmut, if several times more people died in the process than in the nine years of war in Afghanistan.

With his statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin achieved two goals at once: on the one hand, he emphasized the importance of PMCs and belittled the Ministry of Defense, on the other, he saved the face of his project. The lie about the loss ratio was also needed precisely for this purpose.
The entire process of recruiting new “musicians” was based on the image of the Wagner PMC - both in the public sphere and in a narrow circle of specialists. Prigozhin’s team has always paid a lot of attention to maintaining this image. Therefore, when Wagner began recruiting prisoners, they were promised that yesterday’s inmates would be treated as equals, and not as second-class citizens.
“60% of my guys are stormtroopers, and you will be one of them. You will be no different from us. You have the same attitude, sometimes even more loyal, than those who have been fighting with me for many years and have gone through dozens of wars,” Prigozhin asserted, speaking on the parade ground of IK-6 in Mari El.
The lie that in the battles for Bakhmut the Wagnerites were in the same conditions and, as a result, died in the same proportions, was needed to maintain the reputation of the PMC.

Как и какой ценой ЧВК «Вагнер» захватывала Бахмут - BBC News Русская служба

Из 20 тысяч вагнеровцев, погибших при штурме украинского Бахмута, больше 17 тысяч были заключенными, вывезенными на фронт из российских колоний и СИЗО. Би-би-си и «Медиазона» (в реестре «иноагентов») получили доступ к персональным данным этих людей и выяснили, что заявления Евгения Пригожина о...

www.bbc.com

 

[Mister Terrific]

 

[bnew]

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1/15
Good news: the "Putin system" is beginning to collapse. Exactly what I had predicted mathematically (in March) is happening, namely: The announced drastic tax increases in Russia (the highest tax increases in the history of modern Russia) as well as Putin's recently published slogans (according to which "everyone must work as if they were at the front") are dramatic signs that the toxicity of the Russian war economy is reaching a critical level.
What does "toxicity" mean:
If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable. This unfinanceability is toxic for a system because it causes the system to collapse in the medium term (unless the war is won).
Russia is familiar with this type of toxicity; the USSR collapsed when the costs of the arms race (pushed by US President Ronald Reagan) could no longer be financed from the state budget, which led to the collapse of the state.
The situation in Russia today is even more dramatic than the situation in the USSR back then. Today it is not just an arms race, but an active war, and in this war there is NO balance between loss and replacement: high-quality military goods (eg modern air defense systems such as the "S-400 Triumf", or tanks and aircraft) can no longer be produced at a speed that is in balance with the rate of losses. And at the same time, Ukraine is compensating for its personnel disadvantages by using drones.
If Russian state revenues are further weakened NOW (e.g. by effective strikes against refineries) and if Russian supply routes are attacked NOW (if Ukraine receives all the weapons it needs for this), then this will massively accelerate the collapse of Russia, shorten the war and lead more quickly to a real peace.

Putin is a loser:
Does he have air superiority over Ukraine?
No. On the contrary, the extent of his superiority is diminishing.
Is Ukraine "demilitarized"?
No. On the contrary.
Has he prevented the expansion of NATO?
No. On the contrary.
Has he restored Russia's imperial greatness?
No. On the contrary, he is now just "the little partner of big China".

Putin is a poker player who can only bluff:
He can only threaten to escalate the war, but he cannot carry out this threat because Russia is far too inferior to NATO.

Putin's only hope: politicians in the West who are hesitant enough (in their efforts to support Ukraine) so that the war can be won "somehow" before Russia collapses.
We must not allow it to come to that.
If Ukraine wins and Russia loses, then the entire China-Iran-Russia axis loses. And that is in the best interest of humanity.

#UKRAINE
#UkraineNeverSurrenders
#ArmUkraineToWin
#ArmUkraineToWinNOW

2/15
RUSSIA IS DEFEATABLE. NOW MORE THAN EVER. #Putin himself knows that as well, which is exactly why he resorts to propaganda and empty nuclear threats (out of the old KGB concept toolbox) when he lacks real military strength. As history teaches us: RUSSIA IS A HISTORICAL LOSER

3/15
Yes, that's always important to remember.

4/15
That's simply the way it is.

5/15
Well said!

6/15
Absolutely right, in each and every single regard.

7/15
Much more CAN be done, that's right.

8/15
Prägnant und exakt auf den Punkt gebracht. Infolge seiner Drohungen wissen wir, dass wir auf dem richtigen Weg sind. Dass an der Verständnisfähigkeit des Herrn Olaf Zweifel angebracht sind, ist leider ebenfalls richtig.

9/15
Die zaudernden Politiker im Westen sind in der Tat ein Problem. Und sie sind Putins realistischste Hoffnung.

10/15
Thank you. I hope the content and meaning of this explanation will reach at least some of the hesitant politicians.

11/15
... and necessary to repeat over and over again, considering all the propaganda.

12/15
If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable.


With mathematical inevitability.

13/15
Indeed, that would be good.

14/15
The calculation is definitely correct. Only the behavior of Western politicians can alter the outcome.

15/15
Exactly. Succinctly to the point.


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[Mister Terrific]

Russia sends warship to Cuba. US collapses the Ruble.

 

[bnew]

Russia sends warship to Cuba. US collapses the Ruble.

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1/3
Russian banks are collapsing after the sweeping new sanctions that the US rolled out on Wednesday.
1/n

2/3
2/ The US is expanding the scope of its crackdown on foreign financial institutions that do business in russia, including a major escalation of efforts to go after foreign banks that are helping to finance the russia’s war effort.

3/3
3/ Russia's central bank has already stopped trading in USD and EUR on Moscow Exchange. Viral videos are showing long lines of russians forming at money changers, trying to buy some USD and EUR. Despite tight control over the exchange rate by Kremlin, russian Ruble is collapsing.


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[bnew]

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BREAKING:

Rosbank’s website is down.

Customers can’t login. Multiple Russian banks are preventing clients from logging in because they don’t have liquidity to give clients their money, due to new US sanctions.

Is this the start of a Russian bank run?

2/2
Things aren’t looking great in the Russian financial system today…


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1/1
There are now more Russian bank websites DOWN than there are UP.


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[Georgiamuscle]

If that’s winning, I hate to see what losing looks like

 

[DetroitEWarren]

Love to watch as an evil pink bytch crumbles in the spotlight. Only thing that would make it better is being a fly in the wall.

Very few things in life makes me feel better than seeing evil pink ass leaders on the brink of death or destruction. I'm gonna enjoy it more when it happens to Netanyamu and I honestly hope he's killed by military or government or even a fukking civilian while he is here.

You get rid of Netanyamu and Putin that's legitimately killing off the 2 biggest criminals in the world.

 

[bnew]

Russian troops surrender to an elite brigade as the Kharkiv front holds, Ukraine says

In a video released by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade, Russian troops appear to be surrendering in Vovchansk.

www.businessinsider.com

Russian troops surrender to an elite brigade as the Kharkiv front holds, Ukraine says​

Cameron Manley

A screenshot from Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade's video appearing to show Russian soldiers being captured in the Vovchansk region. Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade

• Dozens of Russian soldiers have surrendered in Vovchansk in recent weeks, Ukraine says.
• A video released by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade appears to show Russian prisoners of war.
• The Russians reported major losses, poor conditions, and a lack of support from senior officers.

Russian soldiers have been surrendering to an elite Ukrainian combat brigade in the northern town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, reports say.

A video released on Wednesday by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade appears to show Russian troops emerging from a trench with their hands raised or tied behind their backs.

The video seems to confirm recent reports that dozens of Russian soldiers have been surrendering around Vovchansk, where heavy fighting has raged since Moscow launched a cross-border offensive toward Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, last month.

The prisoners of war were later filmed and interviewed, sitting in what appeared to be a school classroom.

Business Insider couldn't independently verify the video.

Several of the captured soldiers said they'd been forced into the Russian army because of financial or legal trouble. Some said they'd received as little as one week of training before being sent to the front.

Food and water were limited, and often, they had to buy supplies with their own money, they said.

Almost all the prisoners said their units had suffered severe losses during attacks against Ukrainian positions.

"We received an order to attack positions inside a chemical factory. I don't know, maybe there were 70 of us. We drove there at night," one POW said.

"The drones came out of nowhere and wiped almost everyone out. Most of us were hit. Only seven of us survived, and we were wounded. Then we were taken prisoner," he said.

Russia had a golden opportunity to open a new front in Ukraine but is squandering it, military experts say


Another soldier said he'd been taken prisoner after being the "only survivor" in his unit.

Many complained about the leadership of their officers, who, they said, didn't participate in the costly assaults.

Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade published footage of Russian soldiers it says it captured in recent fighting. Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade

The video appears to confirm major Russian losses and surrenders in the region, supporting the idea that Russia's attempt to open a second front in Ukraine's north has stalled.

Last week, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia Regional Command, which is responsible for ground operations in the area, said that "close to 60 Russians" were captured in a single day of combat.

Vovchansk, 3 miles from the Russian border, was 70% under Ukrainian control, Voloshyn said.

An earlier video published on June 6 by Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade appeared to show two Russian soldiers, both wounded, being captured during a Ukrainian counterattack in Vovchansk.

In February, some 30,000 Russian troops began pouring over Ukraine's northern border into the Kharkiv region, opening up a new front for Ukraine's already-stretched defenses.

Yet four months later, Russian forces have stalled, and the White House national-security communications advisor, John Kirby, has declared the offensive "all but over."

The Institute for the Study of War said that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have rushed the offensive in an attempt to get ahead of incoming Western aid, fielding "an understrength force" in the process.

The RAND geopolitical strategist Ann Marie Dailey previously told BI that Putin probably never had the means to capture Kharkiv city but hoped to create a buffer zone to shield the border region of Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks.

Nonetheless, Dailey told BI, "I think that there's a broader offensive effort that you'll see from Russia later in this summer."

Correction: June 17, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the time between when Russian troops first entered Kharkiv in February and John Kirby's statement about the offensive. It was four months, not four weeks. An earlier version of the story also misspelled Khortytsia.

 

[bnew]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/20/us-says-ukraine-can-hit-inside-russia-anywhere-00164261

Defense

US says Ukraine can hit inside Russia ‘anywhere’ its forces attack across the border​

The policy is not limited to the Kharkiv region, U.S. officials said.

“This is not about geography. It's about common sense," national security adviser Jake Sullivan told PBS. | Susan Walsh/AP

By Lara Seligman

06/20/2024 02:39 PM EDT



The U.S. has told Ukraine it can use American-supplied weapons to hit any Russian forces attacking from across the border — not just those in the region near Kharkiv, according to U.S. officials.

The subtle shift in messaging — which officials insist is not a change in policy — comes just weeks after the U.S. quietly gave Kyiv the green light to strike inside Russia in response to a cross-border assault on the city of Kharkiv. At the time, U.S. officials stressed that the policy was limited to the Kharkiv region, among other restrictions.

Ukrainian forces have since used American weapons to strike into Russia at least once, destroying targets in the city of Belgorod, and managed to hold back the Russian assault. But Ukrainian and other European officials have pressed the U.S. to loosen its restrictions even further, allowing Ukraine to strike anywhere inside Russia.

Blinken: Biden approves Ukraine use of American weapons in Russia

National security adviser Jake Sullivan told PBS on Tuesday that the agreement with Ukraine about firing American weapons into Russia extends to “anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory.”

Russia has in recent days indicated it may soon move on the northeastern city of Sumy, which is also near the Russian border. If that happens, the policy would apply there as well, Sullivan said.

“This is not about geography. It’s about common sense. If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border,” Sullivan said.

Biden touts new security deal with Ukraine

Two U.S. officials, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the discussions, maintained that allowing Ukraine to hit inside Russia in response to counterfire from anywhere across the border is not a shift in policy since the Kharkiv decision was made. Originally, the move was characterized only in the context of the ongoing Kharkiv assault, but that did not exclude the possibility of hitting back against other cross-border attacks, said one of the officials.

Still, Sullivan’s language is markedly different from what U.S. officials said in May when the new policy was detailed. At the time a senior U.S. official said: “The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them.”

The policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed,” the official stressed.

 

[Mister Terrific]

 

[Mister Terrific]