At the MLB season's midpoint, just before the signing deadline for drafted players, here is a fresh look at the top 50 prospects still in the minor leagues, including a new name on top.
These rankings are based primarily on upside or ceiling, not on proximity to the majors, so the list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A and a few who have signed but have yet to make their professional debuts.
Drafted players who haven't signed are ineligible, as is anyone currently on a major league roster. I've also omitted several pitchers who have missed significant time this year with arm injuries, waiting until they return to rerank them as needed.
1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Frisco)
Preseason ranking: 7
Profar has the ultimate mark of an elite prospect. He keeps improving even as he is challenged with better competition. In this case, the Rangers jumped the 19-year-old two levels to Double-A, where he has continued to hit for average, get on base, make contact, show surprising power for his size, hit from both sides of the plate and play plus defense. There's no real hole in his game, and he looks as if he'll be more than ready for the majors before he turns 21 -- another mark of a potential superstar -- if the Rangers can create a spot for him.
2. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Frederick)
Preseason ranking: 11
Without his cutter, he is not quite the same animal he was in high school, although there is some logic in asking a pitching prospect to shelve his best off-speed pitch temporarily so he can develop his others -- a curveball and a changeup in this case, both projecting as grade 55 or 60 pitches -- and work on fastball command. Give Bundy back his primary out pitch and he could pitch in Double-A or higher right now.
3. Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Bowie)
Preseason ranking: 4
Fans disappointed in Machado's performance earlier this year weren't considering how young and inexperienced he was as an everyday player in Double-A. After an adjustment period when he was never struggling, just failing to meet expectations, he is having results more commensurate with his high ranking. He is not as close to ready as Profar is on offense or defense, although I think he'll stay at shortstop and has more potential power.
4. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Omaha)
Preseason ranking: 13
He hits, hits for power, gets on base and probably ends up in right field but wouldn't kill the team in center. The Royals should have promoted him Sunday right after the Futures Game.
5. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays (age 23)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 6
D'Arnaud, who recently tore a ligament in his knee and will miss as much as two months, can't catch a break. It's possible, even likely, he is always going to be an injury-prone player, one who is great when he plays but won't average 140 games a year the way you'd want.
6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 24
It's not all there yet -- not the secondary nor the command -- but his arm is easy and quick. He is extremely athletic, not to mention very young (doesn't turn 20 until August). It's hard to see him ending up anything worse than a top-30 starter in the league, with top 10-15 upside.
7. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Altoona)
Preseason ranking: 10
There's no starter in the minors with a better pure repertoire, with plus velocity on the four- and two-seamers, a plus changeup and a slider up to 92 mph. He still needs to work on fastball command and pitch selection, especially taking charge of calling his own game and avoiding the trap of responding to adversity by just throwing harder, but his progress in Year 1 has been very positive.
8. Oscar Taveras, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Springfield)
Preseason ranking: 53
It ain't pretty, as you know if you watched the Futures Game on Sunday, but it works, with average, power and an impressive ability to square up pitches most hitters can only foul off. He's hitting .324 AVG/.372 OBP/.593 SLG as a 20-year-old at Double-A, although I'm skeptical that he'll be able to play center field at an adequate level in the majors given teams' general insistence that their center fielders have more range than Taveras can offer. His bat still profiles as star caliber in right.
9. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Reno)
Preseason ranking: 25
He is still quite projectable even after his velocity has increased to the 90-94 mph range. The curveball shows plus; the changeup is there; and he is very loose and athletic.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 15
He has the power, the size and the breaking ball to be an ace. He continues to work on fastball command in Bradenton. The Pirates have removed his shackles, allowing him to face at least some hitters a third time in 11 of his past 12 starts.
11. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (age 18)
Current level: Low Class A (Lake County)
Preseason ranking: 35
Calling him the poor man's Profar isn't fair to him, perhaps the shrinking-middle-class man's Profar? Lindor isn't as advanced as Profar was at the same age and level last year, but he is still further ahead than most 18-year-old position players are, with a good eye and very good defense at short.
12. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Jupiter)
Preseason ranking: 48
He still has one of the prettiest left-handed swings in the minors. He is performing well considering more than 40 percent of his plate appearances have come against lefties.
13. Bubba Starling, CF, Kansas City Royals (age 19)
Current level: Short-season rookie (Burlington)
Preseason ranking: 15
He is off to a nice start in 10 games in short-season ball, although his ranking is more about his tools than his small-sample performance. He turns 20 in August, so he is not young for that level, and it would be great to see him get a few weeks in the full-season Midwest League before the year is out.
14. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Binghamton)
Preseason ranking: 27
He was touching 97-98 mph facing two batters at the Futures Game, although he won't pitch at that velocity as a starter. He still projects as a solid No. 2, top 30 or so in the league, with an outside chance of more.
15. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Erie)
Preseason ranking: 37
Your Futures Game MVP can hit, hit for power and get on base. He is going to be at least solid average at third -- good enough that the Tigers shouldn't be thinking about putting him in the outfield.
16. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (South Bend)
Preseason ranking: 19
His stuff is great, but his command and control definitely are not where I expected them to be (57 walks in 81 2/3 innings this year). Same ceiling as before, but lower probability.
17. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 5
Miller's stuff was down early in the year, then the velocity crept back up, but he is still too prone to making mistakes in the zone, getting too much of the plate, especially with the fastball. That adjustment, learning to use his off-speed stuff because he can't just blow by hitters, is proving to be difficult. Doing it in the Pacific Coast League isn't easy, either; he has allowed 17 homers in 17 starts this year. He is pitching the entire year at 21 -- he is just three months older than 2012 first-round pick Kevin Gausman -- so there's no reason to jump ship yet.
18. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins (age 18)
Current level: Rookie (Gulf Coast League)
Preseason ranking: N/A
The best prospect in this year's draft is off to a slow start in the GCL but is at least making contact. Keep in mind that all of these high draftees -- especially high school ones -- playing in rookie ball are getting reps in pro ball that their counterparts in previous years did not because they signed too late. This is one tangible difference of the signing deadline moving up from mid-August to mid-July.
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Gwinnett)
Preseason ranking: 18
He is similar to Miller -- a young starter struggling in Triple-A, especially with the long ball. Teheran throws more strikes and has more feel for his changeup, but Miller has a better breaking ball. It's possible both guys have lower ceilings than I thought they did a year ago.
20. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (age 17)
Current level: Rookie (Gulf Coast League)
Preseason ranking: N/A
A future power-hitting infielder who probably will end up at third base as his 6-foot-4, 190-pound frame fills out. Correa turns 18 in September, and, although I preferred Buxton in the draft, I think Houston did the right thing, saving $1.2 million by taking Correa and spending that money on players such as Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz.
21. Mason Williams, CF, New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Tampa)
Preseason ranking: 34
He recently was promoted to High Class A after posting an .848 OPS in a half-season at Charleston. Williams earns a lot of raves from scouts between his tools and his general feel for the game, especially on defense.
22. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Springfield)
Preseason ranking: 22
He missed some time this year with shoulder tendinitis, but he is back and apparently healthy again. Martinez has ace potential if he holds up, but there's some skepticism that his size (6-0, 195) eventually will push him to a closer role.
23. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Corpus Christi)
Preseason ranking: 46
He has an advanced approach at the plate for his age, at least against right-handers, but he still shows a pronounced platoon split. He is still young for his level and is able to provide above-average defense at first.
24. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Tacoma)
Preseason ranking: 30
He hit a small speed bump in Triple-A -- a tough level for pitchers because they face so many hitters with big league experience -- but his first outing came in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colo., and I doubt control is any kind of long-term issue for Hultzen, who has above-average command of three pitches.
These rankings are based primarily on upside or ceiling, not on proximity to the majors, so the list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A and a few who have signed but have yet to make their professional debuts.
Drafted players who haven't signed are ineligible, as is anyone currently on a major league roster. I've also omitted several pitchers who have missed significant time this year with arm injuries, waiting until they return to rerank them as needed.
1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Frisco)
Preseason ranking: 7
Profar has the ultimate mark of an elite prospect. He keeps improving even as he is challenged with better competition. In this case, the Rangers jumped the 19-year-old two levels to Double-A, where he has continued to hit for average, get on base, make contact, show surprising power for his size, hit from both sides of the plate and play plus defense. There's no real hole in his game, and he looks as if he'll be more than ready for the majors before he turns 21 -- another mark of a potential superstar -- if the Rangers can create a spot for him.
2. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Frederick)
Preseason ranking: 11
Without his cutter, he is not quite the same animal he was in high school, although there is some logic in asking a pitching prospect to shelve his best off-speed pitch temporarily so he can develop his others -- a curveball and a changeup in this case, both projecting as grade 55 or 60 pitches -- and work on fastball command. Give Bundy back his primary out pitch and he could pitch in Double-A or higher right now.
3. Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Bowie)
Preseason ranking: 4
Fans disappointed in Machado's performance earlier this year weren't considering how young and inexperienced he was as an everyday player in Double-A. After an adjustment period when he was never struggling, just failing to meet expectations, he is having results more commensurate with his high ranking. He is not as close to ready as Profar is on offense or defense, although I think he'll stay at shortstop and has more potential power.
4. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Omaha)
Preseason ranking: 13
He hits, hits for power, gets on base and probably ends up in right field but wouldn't kill the team in center. The Royals should have promoted him Sunday right after the Futures Game.
5. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays (age 23)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 6
D'Arnaud, who recently tore a ligament in his knee and will miss as much as two months, can't catch a break. It's possible, even likely, he is always going to be an injury-prone player, one who is great when he plays but won't average 140 games a year the way you'd want.
6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 24
It's not all there yet -- not the secondary nor the command -- but his arm is easy and quick. He is extremely athletic, not to mention very young (doesn't turn 20 until August). It's hard to see him ending up anything worse than a top-30 starter in the league, with top 10-15 upside.
7. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Altoona)
Preseason ranking: 10
There's no starter in the minors with a better pure repertoire, with plus velocity on the four- and two-seamers, a plus changeup and a slider up to 92 mph. He still needs to work on fastball command and pitch selection, especially taking charge of calling his own game and avoiding the trap of responding to adversity by just throwing harder, but his progress in Year 1 has been very positive.
8. Oscar Taveras, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Springfield)
Preseason ranking: 53
It ain't pretty, as you know if you watched the Futures Game on Sunday, but it works, with average, power and an impressive ability to square up pitches most hitters can only foul off. He's hitting .324 AVG/.372 OBP/.593 SLG as a 20-year-old at Double-A, although I'm skeptical that he'll be able to play center field at an adequate level in the majors given teams' general insistence that their center fielders have more range than Taveras can offer. His bat still profiles as star caliber in right.
9. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Reno)
Preseason ranking: 25
He is still quite projectable even after his velocity has increased to the 90-94 mph range. The curveball shows plus; the changeup is there; and he is very loose and athletic.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 15
He has the power, the size and the breaking ball to be an ace. He continues to work on fastball command in Bradenton. The Pirates have removed his shackles, allowing him to face at least some hitters a third time in 11 of his past 12 starts.
11. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (age 18)
Current level: Low Class A (Lake County)
Preseason ranking: 35
Calling him the poor man's Profar isn't fair to him, perhaps the shrinking-middle-class man's Profar? Lindor isn't as advanced as Profar was at the same age and level last year, but he is still further ahead than most 18-year-old position players are, with a good eye and very good defense at short.
12. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Jupiter)
Preseason ranking: 48
He still has one of the prettiest left-handed swings in the minors. He is performing well considering more than 40 percent of his plate appearances have come against lefties.
13. Bubba Starling, CF, Kansas City Royals (age 19)
Current level: Short-season rookie (Burlington)
Preseason ranking: 15
He is off to a nice start in 10 games in short-season ball, although his ranking is more about his tools than his small-sample performance. He turns 20 in August, so he is not young for that level, and it would be great to see him get a few weeks in the full-season Midwest League before the year is out.
14. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Binghamton)
Preseason ranking: 27
He was touching 97-98 mph facing two batters at the Futures Game, although he won't pitch at that velocity as a starter. He still projects as a solid No. 2, top 30 or so in the league, with an outside chance of more.
15. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Erie)
Preseason ranking: 37
Your Futures Game MVP can hit, hit for power and get on base. He is going to be at least solid average at third -- good enough that the Tigers shouldn't be thinking about putting him in the outfield.
16. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (South Bend)
Preseason ranking: 19
His stuff is great, but his command and control definitely are not where I expected them to be (57 walks in 81 2/3 innings this year). Same ceiling as before, but lower probability.
17. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 5
Miller's stuff was down early in the year, then the velocity crept back up, but he is still too prone to making mistakes in the zone, getting too much of the plate, especially with the fastball. That adjustment, learning to use his off-speed stuff because he can't just blow by hitters, is proving to be difficult. Doing it in the Pacific Coast League isn't easy, either; he has allowed 17 homers in 17 starts this year. He is pitching the entire year at 21 -- he is just three months older than 2012 first-round pick Kevin Gausman -- so there's no reason to jump ship yet.
18. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins (age 18)
Current level: Rookie (Gulf Coast League)
Preseason ranking: N/A
The best prospect in this year's draft is off to a slow start in the GCL but is at least making contact. Keep in mind that all of these high draftees -- especially high school ones -- playing in rookie ball are getting reps in pro ball that their counterparts in previous years did not because they signed too late. This is one tangible difference of the signing deadline moving up from mid-August to mid-July.
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Gwinnett)
Preseason ranking: 18
He is similar to Miller -- a young starter struggling in Triple-A, especially with the long ball. Teheran throws more strikes and has more feel for his changeup, but Miller has a better breaking ball. It's possible both guys have lower ceilings than I thought they did a year ago.
20. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (age 17)
Current level: Rookie (Gulf Coast League)
Preseason ranking: N/A
A future power-hitting infielder who probably will end up at third base as his 6-foot-4, 190-pound frame fills out. Correa turns 18 in September, and, although I preferred Buxton in the draft, I think Houston did the right thing, saving $1.2 million by taking Correa and spending that money on players such as Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz.
21. Mason Williams, CF, New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Tampa)
Preseason ranking: 34
He recently was promoted to High Class A after posting an .848 OPS in a half-season at Charleston. Williams earns a lot of raves from scouts between his tools and his general feel for the game, especially on defense.
22. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Springfield)
Preseason ranking: 22
He missed some time this year with shoulder tendinitis, but he is back and apparently healthy again. Martinez has ace potential if he holds up, but there's some skepticism that his size (6-0, 195) eventually will push him to a closer role.
23. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Corpus Christi)
Preseason ranking: 46
He has an advanced approach at the plate for his age, at least against right-handers, but he still shows a pronounced platoon split. He is still young for his level and is able to provide above-average defense at first.
24. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Tacoma)
Preseason ranking: 30
He hit a small speed bump in Triple-A -- a tough level for pitchers because they face so many hitters with big league experience -- but his first outing came in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colo., and I doubt control is any kind of long-term issue for Hultzen, who has above-average command of three pitches.