Start with two numbers that are horrible for Obama. The first is his poll rating, which remains stubbornly below 50%. History suggests that incumbent presidents unable to break the 50% barrier at this stage end up serving just one term. The second figure, which goes a long way to explaining the first, is the statistic that puts US unemployment at 8.3%. Joblessness has not stood below 8% since the month Obama took office. Again, the historical record is brutal on sitting presidents seeking re-election against such a bleak economic backdrop. The last one to pull it off was Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1936.
Viewed like that, the fact that Obama is even in a statistical dead-heat with Romney nationally is quite an achievement. It has come thanks in part to an aerial bombardment of TV advertising by the Obama campaign in decisive states, consisting mainly of 30-second attacks on Romney, depicting him as a corporate vulture who won't tell the truth about how much tax he pays. That such a heavy assault has only managed to result in stalemate illustrates the gravity of the president's situation.
What's more, a serious Romney counter-attack is on the way. Under the rules of campaign finance, the Republican only gained access to his full war-chest on Thursday night, when he became his party's formal nominee. Unusually for a challenger, he is comprehensively out-fundraising Obama, pulling in more than $200m in June and July alone. Romney is backed too by a series of so-called Super Pacs (political action committees), officially unaffiliated bodies that are able to keep the source of their funds secret and who can spend unlimited amounts on TV commercials. Obama has some Super Pac allies of his own, but here too Romney has the advantage.
The coming phase of the campaign holds further bright possibilities for the Republican candidate. Yes, Obama will get his moment in the sun next week as Democrats gather for their convention in Charlotte. But any momentum could come to an abrupt halt on Friday, when the latest job statistics are published.
Think again. In a few months it could be President Romney | Jonathan Freedland | Comment is free | The Guardian