Dexter Filkins: How General Petraeus Turned the Tide in Iraq : The New Yorker
Nowadays, most general officers, at least most American ones, do not see combat. They dont fire their weapons, and they dont get killed; for the most part, they dont even smoke. In wars without front lines, American generals tend to stay inside fortified bases, where they plan missions and brief political leaders via secure video teleconferences. Their credentials are measured as much by their graduate degrees as by the medals on their dress uniforms. They are, for the most part, deeply conventional men, who rose to the top of the military hierarchy by following orders and suppressing subversive thoughts.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, most of the criticism has centered on the political leadersBush, Cheney, and Rumsfeldwho ordered the invasions and grossly mismanaged the occupations that followed. Less criticism has focussed on the soldiers and the generals who led them. This is understandable: the military didnt start these wars, and the relatively small number of Americans who fought in themafter a decade, less than one per cent of the populationbore the burden for the rest of the country. In all those Support Our Troops bumper stickers and campaign applause lines, it has not been difficult to discern a sense of collective guilt.
In the summer and fall of 2003, many of those generals turned their men loose on Iraqs population, employing harsh measures to round up insurgents and compel civilians to hand them over. The central tactic was to sweep villages in the countrys Sunni heartlandthe center of the insurgencyand haul in the military-age men. These young men, who were mostly of no intelligence value, were often taken to Abu Ghraib, where their anger ripened. I witnessed several such roundups, and could only conclude that whichever of these men did not support the uprising when the raids began would almost certainly support it by the time the raids were over. Faced with a small but significant insurgency, American commanders employed a strategy that insured that it would metastasize.
By late 2006, the Sunni insurgency had been largely taken over by extremist groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, who were attacking Shiites, the countrys largest sect. The Shiites turned to their own militia, the Mahdi Armyand to the death squadsto protect them, igniting the civil war. The situation seemed hopelessand this sense of hopelessness gave an opening to the American insurgents. Kaplan tells the story well. From the beginning of the Iraq war, a number of officers and policy intellectuals, including Petraeus, believed that the war had to be fought a different way. In the few places where the principles of counter-insurgency had been put into practiceas they had in Tal Afar, in 2005, by a gutsy colonel named H. R. McMasterthe anarchy receded. The idea was this: The parties to the civil warthe Sunni minority and the Shiite majoritywould never reach an accommodation as long as they were still butchering each other. The only chance lay in forcing a pause that would allow the bargaining to begin. Only a massive deployment of troops could provide that kind of pause.
So how much of Petraeuss success was due to Petraeus? He was smart, and he was diligent, but was that enough? I have plenty of clever generals, Napoleon purportedly said. Just give me a lucky one. Indeed, the crucial lesson of the surge is that it succeeded only because other things in Iraq were changing at exactly the right time. The most important of these was the Awakening, the name given to the cascading series of truces made by Sunni tribal leaders with their American occupiers. Many Sunnis were appalled by the sectarian attacksand were also fearful of genocide at the hands of the Shiite death squads. They asked the Americans for help, and U.S. officers, sensing a chance to turn the tide against Al Qaeda, seized the opportunity.
Sitting in what surely feels like a retirement come too early, Petraeus must wonder where he will rank in the pantheon of American generals. Its too soon to tell exactly, of course, but his legacy looks reasonably clear. Iraq was a bloody tie, but without his extraordinary efforts it would have been much worse. Afghanistan, which he was called in to rescue, looks as if it will end badly. Thats probably not enough to get him into the temple with Ike, but, given the wars that he was handed, its hard to imagine an American general who could have done better. Petraeus was luckyjust not lucky enough.