A new top PG in the East
John Wall? Derrick Rose? Actually, there's a case to be made for another
Originally Published: January 9, 2015
By
Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
If you're a believer that the NBA is a point guard league, the Eastern Conference standings provide strong evidence for your position. Of the top four teams in the East, three are led in scoring by their point guards. The one exception (the
Chicago Bulls, where
Derrick Rose is third in scoring) has a former MVP at the position. And the team in fifth, the
Cleveland Cavaliers, have an All-Star point guard in
Kyrie Irving.
But who's the best of the group? Let's take a deep look inside the numbers to find the East's top point guard.
Scoring
I find it instructive to graph the two primary elements of scoring -- efficiency, as measured by true shooting percentage, and volume, as measured by usage rate -- to see how players compare.
I've included league averages for both categories, as well as a line showing the typical tradeoff between usage and TS% for an average player. As has become typical for modern point guards -- who finish a higher percentage of their team's plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover than any other position -- 12 of the East's 15 primary starting point guards are average or higher in usage.
Four players are above average in both efficiency and usage: Irving,
Brandon Knight,
Kyle Lowry and
Jeff Teague. Of these, Teague best combines both elements of scoring. He's got the highest TS% in the group (.604) while using plays only slightly less frequently than the other efficient high-scorers, Knight and Lowry. Teague may not be able to keep this up -- his TS% last year was just .541 -- but for now, he's the best scoring point guard in the East.
Playmaking
Let's take a look at a few key statistics for the top playmakers, ranked by John Hollinger's pure point rating (in this case, calculated by assist rate * 2/3 - turnovers per 100 team plays).
East PG Playmaking Stats
Player Team Ast% TO% PPR
John Wall WAS .132 .186 .041
Kyle Lowry TOR .099 .112 .036
Brandon Jennings DET .099 .137 .031
Deron Williams BKN .093 .147 .028
Jeff Teague ATL .103 .163 .027
Kemba Walker CHA .070 .082 .026
As the eye test would suggest, John Wall is far and away the top playmaker in this group. Lowry stands out in pure point rating because he's so sure-handed. That also works to the benefit of Kemba Walker, who is below average as a distributor but turns the ball over less than half as frequently per play as Wall.
SportVU data available on NBA.com/Stats suggests Lowry might be a tad overrated as a passer, since he generates relatively few secondary (i.e. hockey) assists. Intriguingly,
Michael Carter-Williams of the
Philadelphia 76ers actually rates third in assist opportunities (passes that would be assists if the shot were made) per play. While it's tough to say how much that ratio reflects the point guard's passing as compared to the shooting of his teammates, in Carter-Williams' case it's clear that the poor team around him is costing him assists.
Defense
East PG Defensive RPM
Player Team 13-14 14-15
John Wall WAS -0.4 2.2
Elfrid Payton ORL - 1.8
Michael Carter-Williams PHI -2.1 1.1
C.J. Watson IND -0.9 1.04
Jeff Teague ATL -0.8 0.5
Kyle Lowry TOR 0.4 0.3
Mario Chalmers MIA 0.8 0.0
The chart at right summarizes
defensive real plus-minus (RPM) leaders from this season among East point guards. Including 2013-14 ratings highlights how noisy these figures can be over a small sample. It's reasonable to conclude that Mario Chalmers, Lowry, Teague and Wall are all near the top of this group based on their consistent success.
According to NBA.com/Stats, the Wizards are allowing 12.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wall on the floor this season, the largest gap for any of their starters. Wall seems to have harnessed his athleticism defensively, and he's got the best steal rate of this group. (Chalmers and Payton are tied for second.) Lowry is a physical defender who compensates with strength for his small stature, Teague a good recovery defender and Chalmers a talented (albeit often frustrating) freelancer.
Ultimately, the best defender of the group might be Elfrid Payton, who has proved a quick study as a rookie. Thanks to his pressure defense, the Magic's defensive rating is 5.6 points lower with him at the point.
Overall
Putting these categories together, let's see how these players rate in a variety of all-in-one stats:
•
PER (per-minute)
•
Win shares (value)
•
RPM (per-minute)
•
Win% (per-minute)
•
WARP (value)
East PG Value Stats
Player Team PER WS RPM Win% WARP
Kyle Lowry TOR 24.1 5.5 6.3 .683 6.6
John Wall WAS 20.9 3.9 4.7 .642 5.9
Jeff Teague ATL 22.8 4.4 2.7 .653 5.0
Kemba Walker CHA 18.5 3.2 1.5 .577 4.5
Brandon Knight MIL 18.5 3.2 -0.8 .587 4.3
Kyrie Irving CLE 19.6 3.9 2.6 .551 3.6
Brandon Jennings DET 18.1 2.2 2.4 .567 2.9
Deron Williams BKN 16.8 2.4 1.5 .538 2.6
While the various statistics put these players in slightly different order, they're in agreement about the best point guard in the East. In a conference with three former No. 1 overall picks at the position, it's Lowry (taken 24th overall in 2006, 17 picks behind Villanova teammate
Randy Foye) who has emerged as the best point guard. Lowry has the most complete game of the group, and has carried the Raptors near the top of the East without
DeMar DeRozan. Remarkably, Lowry has never been an All-Star, but that oversight should be corrected soon.
Picking between Wall and Teague is more a matter of taste over the first half of this season, as different metrics favor different players. I'd lean in Wall's direction because of his superiority as a playmaker and defender and the likelihood that Teague falls off his current scoring pace. Still, Teague has proved that he deserves his first selection to the All-Star team as the leader of the East's best team.
An All-Star a year ago, Irving hasn't merited a return trip. Moving to a smaller role alongside
LeBron James and
Kevin Love hasn't boosted Irving's efficiency as a scorer as much as anticipated, and he remains a below-average defender. Statistically, he's struggled to distinguish himself from other score-first East point guards like Knight and Walker.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12141574/nba-why-kyle-lowry-best-pg-east
