I am skeptical that LR, PS or Greens would want to enter into a coalition with Macron's allies. As you yourself described in a previous post, Macron has done a lot to erode the power of all of these parties by expanding the center to the detriment of the center left and center right. Wouldn't entering into a coalition with Macron's allies put an end to their hopes to revive their parties as strong, distinct entities?
What about some sort of non-partisan technocratic PM, with assembly members just deciding how to vote and who to ally with on a case-by-case basis?
Exceptional times require exceptional solutions I'd say.
There is no majority anywhere so laws can't pass unless there are some unnatural alliances. In a packed parliament for crucial laws, 289 people guarantee a law to pass :
- NFP alliance needs 100 people outside the left
- Macron alliance needs 110 people either left or right of it
- RN needs 140 people outside the right (never happening)
Those numbers matter because any government can fall if a motion of no confidence gets through. It requires 1/10 of parliament to get voted on and absolute majority to pass.
The current PM (Attal) had its government almost fall a year ago but the motion only had 278 votes. And that was with Macron alliance having 250 members...
Now the biggest alliance in the parliament has 180 seats, I'll let you do the maths on its fragility
Regarding a technician PM, it's possible but right now there is nobody rising above the mass. We're not Italy but Draghi is a good example so it could be Lagarde but she is too tied to Republicans (she was a Chirac minister) and probably too much seen on the sides of banks in times where inflation is kicking everybody.
We'll see, the situation is too new for the moment.