WTF???
IS THIS GOING TO HOLD?
This totally goes against the polls correct?
Yes and no. The reason for this switch is because the run offs could be 3 or 4 ways. And then, it's first past the post.
Because many non-RN candidates who finished 3rd accepted to drop out, a huge majority of run offs were duels and RN were at a disadvantage then. If nobody dropped out then RN would have gotten absolute majority.
We call this the "front républicain" and that's basically if the far right can reach power, we choose to vote for the candidate against it no matter the party
I talked about it there
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I would be more worried if there were repeated polls like this but there is still something called the Republican Front (not in the sense of the US Republican party) in France that means that non far-right politicians/journalists will call to vote against a far-right candidate (or abstain at the very very least) if he/she is in position to win an election. It's still a thing but it becomes more and more fragile as times passes.
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And yes, it's going to hold. Voting places close at 18:00 but for bigger cities, that can extend to 20:00 which is why we don't have the final results yet. By midnight, we should be accurate in principle.