The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff 🇫🇷

[MischievousMonkey]

I know this may sound like a dumb question but what are the most frightening platforms the RN is pushing? I understand the immigrant hate but is that all that has kept them out the mainstream? How far has Marie moved the party from her crazy daddy's ideals?

They haven't changed one bit ideologically. The thing is, they straight up lie about their proposals, some of them change basically everyday.

For example, two years ago, one of their jurists (who was elected on the first round I believe) was talking about their aim of eliminating or suppressing the Constitutional Council, which blocks unconstitutional laws. He was describing how the Constitution allowed some folks to be French in the legal sense "when you can see they're not part of the French people".

That's one of their end game: racial laws. But they can't directly and loudly campaign for them until they're fully in power.

So about 5 months ago, Marine Lepen proposes a law that would forbid dual citizens (except European ones) from having public jobs.

A week ago, as he was getting tagged by its opponents on the issue, Bardella was saying that they didn't want to do that at all, and that they just wanted to restrict SOME highly sensitive jobs and forbid dual citizens from having them.

Besides the weakening of Constitutional barriers, they want to privatize public media which is still huge in the country; as I said above a couple posts prior, thanks to their billionaire backers, it's a guarantee to extinguish visibility for political opponents and stay in power that way.

And they still have among their ranks nazis and Holocaust deniers, neonazis, with far-right militias that support them in the streets.

They're proto-fascist, but the thing with fascism is you might know how it starts, you don't know how far it'll go...

 

[Liu Kang]

For sure. I figured approximately the same thing about the real weight the hood holds as an electorate; it's significant but not a crazy number.
And it's probably a calculus all parties do.

(I also think that on one hand, the youth go beyond the hood and it seems to me Melenchon strikes a chord among them all over. The Palestinian cause, for example, also resonates for young people outside the inner city, and he's by far the most prominent political figure that doesn't dance around on the topic.)

But besides that, how many out of the 45M that aren't already convinced by LFI are really only deterred by Melenchon?
I believe he may just be a good excuse for a substantial opposition to the principles LFI holds, whether it'd be anti-imperialism/anti-racism, social justice or going beyond a soft soc-dem approach when it comes to fighting neoliberalism.

When it comes to RN or even Macronists, I don't think people vote for them because they hate Melenchon or because they think he's antisemitic. They altogether despise what LFI represents.

I mean, just look at how the media and the rest of the political spectrum attacks Rima Hassan or other members of the party. Don't you think that there's a significant chance that if he was to move away, they'd just focus their attack on the next person? (with the reassurance that they CAN make people disappear from the political landscape?)

So all in all, I doubt there's that much to gain in him disappearing, but there's definitely something to lose. And as marginal as it may seem right now, I don't think LFI wants this growing and solidifying electorate to get disenchanted with the party before it has time to develop.

You're right, I was too reductive. I meant that focusing on the pool of 5M votes had diminishing returns (and is probably almost maxed out) compared to the remaining 45M. Obviously LFI is not just voted by people in housing estates/minorities and so on.

Regarding Melenchon and Hassan, they are lightning rods and switching them likely wouldn't change much for rightists, I agree. But many on the left/center-left would not vote LFI because of how they behave rather than their ideology.

I'm not just talking about behavior in the parliament but also their internal mess. I'm talking "primairing" Corbiere, pushing Quatennens against all odds, having Autain and Ruffin out of the leadership. LFI from the outside looks like everybody has to fall in line under Melenchon at risk of being outcast.

I'm convinced Glucksmann did so well for Socialists for this very reason. If you look at RN acting all proper (relatively...) since 2022, I think it gave them an image of responsibility and seriousness that made people more comfortable voting for them. When compared to LFI's conflictuality, it's a stark contrast.

Politics is also image and Melenchon's is dreadful whether it is fully deserved or not. I think as long as he is that visible for LFI, he will both keep inspiring his base and repulsing all other voters...

I'm a realist so I'd prefer to have the left maximizing its potential to get in a position where they can gain a majority in parliament and pass laws.

It's a number's game to me and LFI's strategy does not lead to a path for a left majority in our country IMO.

 

[Liu Kang]

I know this may sound like a dumb question but what are the most frightening platforms the RN is pushing? I understand the immigrant hate but is that all that has kept them out the mainstream? How far has Marie moved the party from her crazy daddy's ideals?

Marine*

I would say, she is a good politician, she learns from her mistakes and is swift to correct course when needed. RN is still very much attached to her name and image and her being (relatively...) controversy-free (except Russian money) makes her party look good regardless of their policies.

For the past 10 years, she has worked to smoothen most sharp angles in her party in order to make it look good. The last part of that strategy was their behavior in the Parliament so they would look proper.

Last but not least, I don't recall her slipping once. She is ideologically far right but she has never said racist / fascist / homophobic / antisemitic stuff unlike her father.

Now her toops are different but for the moment, the only names that really rings bell in RN are hers and Bardella's so the impact of other RN people fukkin up is minimal.

 

[Liu Kang]

the panels on F24 I've been watching are pretty concerning

Yes it is but not as much as it was on Sunday. An absolute majority is out of the equation because 3 ways will be minimal in the run offs.

RN will likely be a relative majority but if we can have them at 230-240 seats (out of 577), that would greatly limit them.

 

[Liu Kang]

@Liu Kang @MischievousMonkey where y'all at in France? I moved out a couple months ago, back in Brussels now

From the southern banlieue of Paris

So not a Parisian though I studied and worked there.

 

[mitter]

Ruffin is now saying that if he is re-elected he won’t sit with LFI

Same shyt everywhere: the left is always divided

 

[Liu Kang]

Ruffin is now saying that if he is re-elected he won’t sit with LFI

Same shyt everywhere: the left is always divided

Yeah I saw that yesterday. It was bound to happen because the relationshp between him and LFI was beyond broken.

He has a good rep and knows how to talk to workers and country people but as @MischievousMonkey said, he's not really in touch with minorities unlike Melenchon.

I don't know if it'll prove a good move but it sure is a logical step.

 

[Liu Kang]

Ok so the current estimates are far more positive than last Sunday
- RN : around 190 seats
- NFP : around 160 seats
- Macron : around 133 seats
- Republicans : around 62 seats
- Other : around 32 seats

Sondage pour les législatives 2024 : les dernières estimations en sièges

On Sunday, RN was ranging between 260 and 310 seats. Good thing many 3rd placed candidates dropped out in 3-ways

I thought they would get between 200 and 230 seats and I was being low in my guesses.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

🔴Live: Midday turnout hits 26.63% in second round of French legislative polls, highest since 1981

Polls opened in the second and final round of France's snap legislative elections on Sunday with more than 500 seats still up for grabs in the lower-house National Assembly. Midday turnout is reported…

www.france24.com

 

[88m3]

hell of a gamble


looks like things panned out

 

[88m3]

 

[Liu Kang]

Let's get it !!!

First results :
- NFP ( around 180)
- Macron (around 160)
- RN (around 140)
- Republicans (around 65)
- Others (around 20)

 

[FAH1223]

 

[jj23]

Let's get it !!!

First results :
- NFP ( around 180)
- Macron (around 160)
- RN (around 140)
- Republicans (around 65)
- Others (around 20)

WTF???

IS THIS GOING TO HOLD?

This totally goes against the polls correct?

 

[Anerdyblackguy]

Surprised that the French left pulled it out. They saw Le pen and said fukk that