The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff 🇫🇷

[trap101-ETHout-Allegri-In]

Yes, turn out was high which usually means the left fares better which happened. However, part of the youth is also right wing. Bardella is young (28) and the heir to Le Pen and has a real appeal to the under 25 who are on tiktok or twitch... Dude has 1.7m followers on tiktok

He obviously is inexperienced and fumbled several times in debates, however he does talk like he's 30+ and looks professional which made the RN more appealing overall.

That's one of the mistake LFI made 2 years ago compared to RN : they went to the parliament being too rowdy while RN looked proper and that started backfired so much that they toned it down this year but it was too late smh.

How'd they tap into the young population? The youth tend to lean left with an ideyllic perspective which usually get's soured over time. What are they proposing tjat actually appeals to them. Or did the RN just master the meme game and the youth are just trippin?

 

[trap101-ETHout-Allegri-In]

Well... Overseas territories do vote RN

Because French overseas territories have higher standards of living than their neighbors (because it's technically "France"), they attract plenty of immigrants (legal or not) and therefore xenophobic sentiment is... strong.

Ask Guadeloupeans and Martinicans about Haitians, Dominicans or St Lucians... Ask Mayotteans about Comorrans and so on... You might hear some disturbing stuff.

Now the RN vote is also an anti-Macron/establishment vote but since 2019, that vote is slowly starting to be an ideological vote. And on top of that, the far right candidates are black !

EDIT : a good article in French where you can see charts at the end
Présidentielles, européennes... Pourquoi les territoires d'Outre-mer votent-ils de plus en plus pour l'extrême droite ? - Outre-mer la 1ère

2017 and is when there is a strong rise but 2019 is when it explodes

That classic Caribbean type of cleptocracy movement.... doesn't care beyond the fiefdom they can inherit...

 

[Piff Huxtable]

So will the Left and Macron form like Voltron or will RN run the table?

if RN won't get the majority, will the next PM be a Socialist? This is too complicated to understand lol

 

[Liu Kang]

One thing to note and that's a personal opinion is that even though the rise of the far right was a slow but steady thing since 2002. I think Macron's strategy since 2017 gave them a great assist.

Macron's started as minister in Hollande's government. Hollande was a leftist president but on the social-democrat wave. Even then, Macron was seen as a Rothchild banker and probably too right of the Socialist party he was part of.

In his 2017 campaign, he surged as a social-democrat with a centrist bias and took most of his votes from the Socialist party almost killing it in the process (they got 6% for those elections, down from 28 in the 2012 ones)

Since 2017, he's drifted rightwards and in the 2022 elections, he campaigned basically as a (moderate) conservative candidate, almost killing the Republicans this time (they got 5%, down from 20 in 2017).

By doing this, he's now successfully created a strong centrist bloc (which really is neo liberal / conservative). However, he did so by burying the historically so-called moderate left and right parties (Socialist party and Republicans).

Those moderate blocs somehow acted as balance to their more radical counterparts and historically in France, we had 4 strong blocs (far left, left, right, far right) with a relatively weak center. That allowed for ideological alliances between blocs of the same side and clearer boundaries between left and right.

Macron sucked the life of the two moderate blocs to realize a strong center but then pushed those who didnt want to compromise further ideologically. That gave LFI the huge boost it needed and RN the space it lacked to dominate the right.

We now have 3 strong blocs (left, center-right, far right) and it's a mess because there is no path to actual alliances as every bloc somehow see the other 2 as a danger to democracy.

Macronism likely died with the dissolution and hopefully the strong center idea dies with it as well.

I need the Macronist bloc to finally be the moderate right party and taking space from RN to blow its bubble. By drifting so much right the past years, it already gave room back to the Socialist party which rose from the dead those elections.

Centrists are a plague, choose a side already

 

[Liu Kang]

How'd they tap into the young population? The youth tend to lean left with an ideyllic perspective which usually get's soured over time. What are they proposing tjat actually appeals to them. Or did the RN just master the meme game and the youth are just trippin?

I remember reading that because of social media, incel/tradwife movements, city/country divide, too much LGBT representation and so on, some youth simply are very conservative in 2024...

I just went on Bardella's tiktok, the couple of vids I watched, he doesnt even meme, just talk politics it seems. I think because he is young and talks proper, he connects well with the youth.

 

[Liu Kang]

So will the Left and Macron form like Voltron or will RN run the table?

if RN won't get the majority, will the next PM be a Socialist? This is too complicated to understand lol

Because it is complicated

In our constitution, the president chooses the PM which is usually from his party because that's the party that has the majority in parliament (the legislative elections happens 2 months after the presidential elections so they are supposed to be in alignment)

Macron's party had a relative majority since 2022 so he needed allies to pass laws and usually allied with Republicans.

Now his party is done (they are third) and RN will likely have a relative majority after the run offs (I'm thinking 35 to 40%, hopefully it's less). But they said they won't want the PM position if they don't have absolute majority.

That's a guess but the likelihood is that we find a polician who is a bit above everything and can be fine by the left and the centrist bloc standards. I see this in a sense as 2020 Biden vs Trump where you needed somebody "not too much" everywhere that who could be consensual enough against an existential threat

 

[Serious]

In truth I'm semi joking cause I was already explorimg that area at least nearby. I had walked up close to the outer ring and walked over to Rue Pajol and walking across back I was passing through some buildings. I don't rock jewellery anyways so the only thing of value I got on me is my phone. Plus I got a look where it is probably not in their interest to try me if they are looking for an easy lick. Regardless enjoyed the place, but gonna have to see what happens with this LePen front.....

Things brehs do for pawging

 

[Serious]

So will the Left and Macron form like Voltron or will RN run the table?

if RN won't get the majority, will the next PM be a Socialist? This is too complicated to understand lol

Man someone needs to break this down me like in I’m 10 years old.

 

[mbewane]

Macron's Civil War comment might actually come true. It's most likely going to be a far right government or a far left coalition to keep the far right out. However, theFar left in France is as feared and contraversial

Let's stop this bs already. The Nouveau Front Populaire or LFI are NOT Far-Left. That's wat right-wing media and politicians keep saying on some "both sides" bs, as if wanting peace in Palestine is on the same level as wanting to ban the veil in public spaces. The Interior Ministery itself has stated that the Rassemblement National IS extreme-right but that LFI is NOT extreme-left.

People are so right-wing that a regular left party is seen as "extremist". Not surprising in a world where saying "Free Palestine" gets you called antis*mitic lmao.

 

[Serious]

Far Right’s Surge in France Lays Bare Deep Divisions

Many expressed shock that Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party was so close to power after the first round of a snap election.

www.nytimes.com

 

[trap101-ETHout-Allegri-In]

Things brehs do for pawging

...... No Pawg zone over here...... now lemme tell you about the African, Caribbean goddesses out here and the exoticals...

 

[UnQuantized]

Let's stop this bs already. The Nouveau Front Populaire or LFI are NOT Far-Left. That's wat right-wing media and politicians keep saying on some "both sides" bs, as if wanting peace in Palestine is on the same level as wanting to ban the veil in public spaces. The Interior Ministery itself has stated that the Rassemblement National IS extreme-right but that LFI is NOT extreme-left.

People are so right-wing that a regular left party is seen as "extremist". Not surprising in a world where saying "Free Palestine" gets you called antis*mitic lmao.

I agree with you but I am not sure the average French person thinks like this. Look at how easy most of France folded to the Nazi regime during WW2. All of that Art & Culture is a mask, they are asthe other Europeans.

 

[Liu Kang]

Let's stop this bs already. The Nouveau Front Populaire or LFI are NOT Far-Left. That's wat right-wing media and politicians keep saying on some "both sides" bs, as if wanting peace in Palestine is on the same level as wanting to ban the veil in public spaces. The Interior Ministery itself has stated that the Rassemblement National IS extreme-right but that LFI is NOT extreme-left.

People are so right-wing that a regular left party is seen as "extremist". Not surprising in a world where saying "Free Palestine" gets you called antis*mitic lmao.

LFI suffers from Melenchon's positions. He is both its best and its worst and there's a reason Bardella is calling him out by name because people see him as the big Red Boogeyman. Melenchon should have known to keep it on the low those elections but he can't help it.

When he talks about revolution and fury, he obiously mean well for the people but this scares everybody that is right of him including some in LFI. I had hoped that Ruffin would take over as he is smoother and less confrontational but LFI internal business is a mess as we know.

 

[MischievousMonkey]

LFI suffers from Melenchon's positions. He is both its best and its worst and there's a reason Bardella is calling him out by name because people see him as the big Red Boogeyman. Melenchon should have known to keep it on the low those elections but he can't help it.

When he talks about revolution and fury, he obiously mean well for the people but this scares everybody that is right of him including some in LFI. I had hoped that Ruffin would take over as he is smoother and less confrontational but LFI internal business is a mess as we know.

Definitely but I think that you also must take into account that with Melenchon fading away, the NFP gets less support from the inner city which was moved by his loyalty to antiracism and anticolonialism (and criticizes Ruffin who they perceive as a class reductionist essentially). With him in the background or straight up refusing to be prime minister, they lose part of that electorate and I also doubt you'd get such a high participation rate, especially among the youth.

 

[MischievousMonkey]

Man someone needs to break this down me like in I’m 10 years old.

As @Liu Kang said, it's mad complicated lol

Basically,

1) Far-right gets 50% of the seats +1 => absolute majority and their own Prime Minister, who will name most of the other ministers. At this point, the Far-right can basically do whatever they want, except what's unconstitutional... But from their own admission, they plan to destroy or limit the Constitutional Council charged to block unconstitutional laws.

2) Far-right gets less than [50% of the seats +1] but more seats than other groups => relative majority, so to make a law pass, they're forced to make alliances with other groups (or try to force it through with executive orders which is not appreciated).

First scenario is terrible, 2nd scenario is very bad because beef runs so deep between the different groups that alliances may be impossible, making the country impossible to govern (in the sense of making laws pass) for a full year at least (up until Macron can dissolve the Assembly again). This would increase the risk of tensions, that are already high, ramping up.