The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff šŸ‡«šŸ‡·

Liu Kang

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Historically though, this seems like an improvement on the far rights overall performance. The abstention rate also suggests a generally unhappy electorate.
I think it's a bit more layered but you touch on good points :
- in France the incumbent president has a disadvantage so he historically does worse the second time around. Mitterand being the only exception as Chirac would have lost if the left hadnt been dumb in 2002.
- there is an overall far right wave in Europe which carried Le Pen too
- the abstention rate was high indeed so it makes Le Pen score less impressive and Macron's victory less important
- COVID made people more anti government because of the lockdowns and other restrictions and Macron became the face of it. He was already seen as arrogant/finance bro before but that tanked his image even more.

All in all, this result and Melenchon's overall performance aren't surprising.

You still think she may run again and win in 2027?
She may yes but she had also said it was her last run before so I can't say for sure. I do think that if she does, she would be dangerously close to win next presidential elections and those are the ones I'm worried about.
 

Liu Kang

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If Le Pen was a man I wonder if it would have made a difference.
Don't think it played a part to be frank.
She's not the first woman to get to the runoff as Royal was the first in 2007. The Le Pen name carries weight and she's been an elected politician for 20+ years. Voters are pretty much indifferent to her being a woman it seems because I've never read any analysis that stated her womanhood to be a drawback politically.
 

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