I think it's a bit more layered but you touch on good points :Historically though, this seems like an improvement on the far rights overall performance. The abstention rate also suggests a generally unhappy electorate.
- in France the incumbent president has a disadvantage so he historically does worse the second time around. Mitterand being the only exception as Chirac would have lost if the left hadnt been dumb in 2002.
- there is an overall far right wave in Europe which carried Le Pen too
- the abstention rate was high indeed so it makes Le Pen score less impressive and Macron's victory less important
- COVID made people more anti government because of the lockdowns and other restrictions and Macron became the face of it. He was already seen as arrogant/finance bro before but that tanked his image even more.
All in all, this result and Melenchon's overall performance aren't surprising.
She may yes but she had also said it was her last run before so I can't say for sure. I do think that if she does, she would be dangerously close to win next presidential elections and those are the ones I'm worried about.You still think she may run again and win in 2027?