The dollar's dominance is shrinking — and it's the krona and the won that are replacing it in reserves, the IMF says

morris

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[COLOR=var(--neutral-foreground-rest)][COLOR=var(--neutral-foreground-rest)]by Zahra Tayeb

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Concerns have grown that the dollar's dominance could be declining. scanrail/Getty Images
© scanrail/Getty ImagesConcerns have grown that the dollar's dominance could be declining. scanrail/Getty Images[/COLOR]


  • The dollar's dominance is eroding in the face of non-traditional reserve currencies, IMF economists said.
  • Currencies including the krona and won account for three-quarters of the shift from the greenback.
  • It comes as central bank reserve managers seek to diversify their portfolios.
The dollar has reigned supreme as the world's global reserve for decades — but that story has been changing, according to economists at the International Monetary Fund.
In fact, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves dipped below 59% in the final quarter of last year, continuing a downtrend that has been going on for two decades, an IMF blog post on Wednesday said.
"The dollar has not become more dominant. It has not even maintained the dominance of prior years," economists Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen, and Chima Simpson-Bell wrote.
The shift away from the dollar is being driven by central banks' interest in non-traditional reserves, including the Swedish krona, the South Korean won, and the Australian and Canadian dollars. The currencies of smaller economies that traditionally haven't been in reserve holdings account for three-quarters of the shift away from dollars, IMF economists said.
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Meet the typical Russian homebuyer in America: They spend more than other foreign buyers and tend to pay in cash:comeon:

  • Russian buyers don't all cluster in Florida's "Little Moscow" — but in New York and Georgia, too.
  • They make up a small part of all foreign homebuyers in the US, but they spend more than any others.
  • The typical Russian buyer pays for their home in cash and uses it as a primary residence.
A tiny beach town north of Miami is home to a large concentration of Russians, but Little Moscow isn't the only place this wealthy set calls home.
As President Joe Biden targets Russia's elite and their families with sanctions that aim to minimize their financial footprint, pockets of Georgia and New York may also be worried about their assets.
Sprinkled throughout the US, Russians account for 0.8% of all foreign buyers who purchased US residential property from April 2015 through March 2021, the National Association of Realtors said. Although small in number, they spend more on their home purchases than any other foreign demographic, and most already hold US visas.
"Foreign buyers, including those from Russia, find the US an attractive destination because of the appeal of the property locations to the buyers and because of stable capital-appreciation returns," said Gay Cororaton, NAR's senior economist and director of housing and commercial research. She added that US home prices rose annually over the past 10 years.
Obviously, not all Russians in the US are wealthy, are oligarchs, or support Putin's attack on Ukraine.
Here's what the typical Russian homebuyer is like in the US.
Read the original article on Business Insider




At the same time, other traditional reserve currencies that have played a large international role — including the euro, yen, and the pound — haven't seen increases at the dollar's expense.
Three factors, they noted, have contributed to the erosion of the dollar's standing: the growing liquidity of markets in non-traditional currencies, the rise of new financial technologies that make it cheaper to trade currencies of small economies, and central banks' hunt for higher-yielding bonds as yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond declined.
This dim view of the greenback's prospects contradicts more bullish forecasts. A Morgan Stanley strategist for instance, recently said that the dollar's dominance is here to stay for a "very long time" as China's strict zero-COVID policy tarnishes the appeal of the yuan.
The dollar's dominance was also echoed by a US Treasury official who reinforced the sentiment that the dollar will remain the global currency reserve.
But in April, the Bank of Israel revealed a new strategy for the allotment of its more than $200 billion of reserves in over a decade. It will expand its holdings to include the Canadian and Australian dollars, the Chinese renminbi, and the Japanese yen. The dollar's share at Israel's central bank will subsequently fall from 66.5% to 61%, per Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, a top IMF official warned in March that Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine could diminish the dominance of the US dollar. The war could also prompt the adoption of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, though there is still a gap in regulation, Gita Gopinath said.
In the case of non-traditional currencies overtaking the US dollar, IMF economists wrote: "All this suggests that if dollar dominance comes to an end (a scenario, not a prediction), then the greenback could be felled not by the dollar's main rivals but by a broad group of alternative currencies."
 

hashmander

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a reduction in dollar reserve holdings won't mean an increase in china's yuan (for their stans). no one is gonna trust them as a safe haven. it will be smaller western democracies. and because they're small they will just nibble at the dollar. if norway's kroner was more liquid they would be on that list.

america needs to worry more about our taliban on the right fukking everything up. it won't look like much of a safe haven when those dikkheads take over for the next 2 decades.
 
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