The Coming Chinese Crack Up - Is China Collapsing?

[DPresidential]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-chinese-crack-up-1425659198

On Thursday, the National People’s Congress convened in Beijing in what has become a familiar annual ritual. Some 3,000 “elected” delegates from all over the country—ranging from colorfully clad ethnic minorities to urbane billionaires—will meet for a week to discuss the state of the nation and to engage in the pretense of political participation.

Some see this impressive gathering as a sign of the strength of the Chinese political system—but it masks serious weaknesses. Chinese politics has always had a theatrical veneer, with staged events like the congress intended to project the power and stability of the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. Officials and citizens alike know that they are supposed to conform to these rituals, participating cheerfully and parroting back official slogans. This behavior is known in Chinese as biaotai, “declaring where one stands,” but it is little more than an act of symbolic compliance.

Despite appearances, China’s political system is badly broken, and nobody knows it better than the Communist Party itself. China’s strongman leader, Xi Jinping, is hoping that a crackdown on dissent and corruption will shore up the party’s rule. He is determined to avoid becoming the Mikhail Gorbachev of China, presiding over the party’s collapse. But instead of being the antithesis of Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Xi may well wind up having the same effect. His despotism is severely stressing China’s system and society—and bringing it closer to a breaking point.

Predicting the demise of authoritarian regimes is a risky business. Few Western experts forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union before it occurred in 1991; the CIA missed it entirely. The downfall of Eastern Europe’s communist states two years earlier was similarly scorned as the wishful thinking of anticommunists—until it happened. The post-Soviet “color revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan from 2003 to 2005, as well as the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, all burst forth unanticipated.

China-watchers have been on high alert for telltale signs of regime decay and decline ever since the regime’s near-death experience in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then, several seasoned Sinologists have risked their professional reputations by asserting that the collapse of CCP rule was inevitable. Others were more cautious—myself included. But times change in China, and so must our analyses.

The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think. We don’t know what the pathway from now until the end will look like, of course. It will probably be highly unstable and unsettled. But until the system begins to unravel in some obvious way, those inside of it will play along—thus contributing to the facade of stability.

Communist rule in China is unlikely to end quietly. A single event is unlikely to trigger a peaceful implosion of the regime. Its demise is likely to be protracted, messy and violent. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Mr. Xi will be deposed in a power struggle or coup d’état. With his aggressive anticorruption campaign—a focus of this week’s National People’s Congress—he is overplaying a weak hand and deeply aggravating key party, state, military and commercial constituencies.

The Chinese have a proverb, waiying, neiruan—hard on the outside, soft on the inside. Mr. Xi is a genuinely tough ruler. He exudes conviction and personal confidence. But this hard personality belies a party and political system that is extremely fragile on the inside.

Consider five telling indications of the regime’s vulnerability and the party’s systemic weaknesses.

First, China’s economic elites have one foot out the door, and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble. In 2014, Shanghai’s Hurun Research Institute, which studies China’s wealthy, found that 64% of the “high net worth individuals” whom it polled—393 millionaires and billionaires—were either emigrating or planning to do so. Rich Chinese are sending their children to study abroad in record numbers (in itself, an indictment of the quality of the Chinese higher-education system).

Just this week, the Journal reported, federal agents searched several Southern California locations that U.S. authorities allege are linked to “multimillion-dollar birth-tourism businesses that enabled thousands of Chinese women to travel here and return home with infants born as U.S. citizens.” Wealthy Chinese are also buying property abroad at record levels and prices, and they are parking their financial assets overseas, often in well-shielded tax havens and shell companies.

Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to extradite back to China a large number of alleged financial fugitives living abroad. When a country’s elites—many of them party members—flee in such large numbers, it is a telling sign of lack of confidence in the regime and the country’s future.

[Continued in link]

 

[DPresidential]

A very interesting read.

It shows the seemingly inevitable & scary future the global economy is entering in. While I was reading the article, I couldn't help but ask myself what hand would the U.S play in this & even w/ the terrifying ramifications, would the economic interests of a few take precedent in the United States' salivation over & ultimate uncontrollable desire to help push China over the edge in some way to accelerate this collapse.

When you think about China’s population at 1.3 Billion +(19% of the world population) an ultimate collapse could usher in a new generation of global imperialism through economy. But that imperialistic fervor my not have an actual nation behind it, it may have the name of a corporation. It's somewhat hard to conceptualize because we only speculate it being possible without actually having an idea of how it can work but we may soon see a transition from the standard power move of a mega-conglomerate of power lobbying & we could see, if possible, a corporation(s) swooping in to take advantage of a Country, post Titanic Iceberg hit & patch up the hull by effectively serving as a hybrid government/company structure.

I mean, if a conglomerate of powerful corporations were to decide to & successfully accomplish a push of serious resources & presence to a collapsed country, although with a mountain of obstacles, they’d have unencumbered access to cheap labor, resources global cornering of almost any market they decide to enter into.

For me the scariest part about that would be its further damage to the already weakened marriage of morality & business. If a Corporation WAS a government, why would they care about anything but profit, even publicly? It's not like they care now even though they do lobby w/ a false face.

Anyway, hope yall find it interesting.

 

[CHL]

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

A very interesting read.

It shows the seemingly inevitable & scary future the global economy is entering in. While I was reading the article, I couldn't help but ask myself what hand would the U.S play in this & even w/ the terrifying ramifications, would the economic interests of a few take precedent in the United States' salivation over & ultimate uncontrollable desire to help push China over the edge in some way to accelerate this collapse.

When you think about China’s population at 1.3 Billion +(19% of the world population) an ultimate collapse could usher in a new generation of global imperialism through economy. But that imperialistic fervor my not have an actual nation behind it, it may have the name of a corporation. It's somewhat hard to conceptualize because we only speculate it being possible without actually having an idea of how it can work but we may soon see a transition from the standard power move of a mega-conglomerate of power lobbying & we could see, if possible, a corporation(s) swooping in to take advantage of a Country, post Titanic Iceberg hit & patch up the hull by effectively serving as a hybrid government/company structure.

I mean, if a conglomerate of powerful corporations were to decide to & successfully accomplish a push of serious resources & presence to a collapsed country, although with a mountain of obstacles, they’d have unencumbered access to cheap labor, resources global cornering of almost any market they decide to enter into.

For me the scariest part about that would be its further damage to the already weakened marriage of morality & business. If a Corporation WAS a government, why would they care about anything but profit, even publicly? It's not like they care now even though they do lobby w/ a false face.

Anyway, hope yall find it interesting.

It is interesting. The corporations and governments are already pretty much in bed together in china already.

There's been a lot of talk of a property bubble and the economy slowing down. It seems that talk has really picked up recently. But I ultimately expect the government to step in and do everything they can to keep the music playing.

 

[Futuristic Eskimo]

It is interesting. The corporations and governments are already pretty much in bed together in china already.

There's been a lot of talk of a property bubble and the economy slowing down. It seems that talk has really picked up recently. But I ultimately expect the government to step in and do everything they can to keep the music playing.

Kicking the can further along is just delaying the inevitable. That kind of credit growth is unsustainable no matter what kind of spin anyone puts on it.

 

[TLR Is Mental Poison]

Bruh w/o China the global economy is so fukked

I knew and called out the laundry list of issues they had but I didn't see shyt sailing south so soon.

But then u figure if what we can see is this bad its even worse inside.

I take an optimistic view though. If the US swoops in I'm hoping it will implement a democracy. I think it will implement a democracy. All that corporatist stuff will be on the back side but it will be a hugely beneficial move for all involved parties. A China free of its Communist rule is a China that can freely trade and consume like a developed country. My real fear with such a development is if they do so without addressing their insane environmental issues. They (and the GOOGLE EARFH) wont last long consuming like the West without cleaning up like the West. It may also be a challenge in that they will have to develop a real middle class pretty quickly. I don't see the US letting a wacky regime infiltrate... too much at stake and there's no ISIS or w/e looming over the area.

 

[Mowgli]

No borders. Go where the money is. The future.

Step your language game up.

We covered on mandarin Spanish and english.

 

[88m3]

where there is a will there's a way, they'll internalize it as long as they can.

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

But that imperialistic fervor my not have an actual nation behind it, it may have the name of a corporation.

 

[joeychizzle]

Bruh w/o China the global economy is so fukked

I knew and called out the laundry list of issues they had but I didn't see shyt sailing south so soon.

But then u figure if what we can see is this bad its even worse inside.

I take an optimistic view though. If the US swoops in I'm hoping it will implement a democracy. I think it will implement a democracy. All that corporatist stuff will be on the back side but it will be a hugely beneficial move for all involved parties. A China free of its Communist rule is a China that can freely trade and consume like a developed country. My real fear with such a development is if they do so without addressing their insane environmental issues. They (and the GOOGLE EARFH) wont last long consuming like the West without cleaning up like the West. It may also be a challenge in that they will have to develop a real middle class pretty quickly. I don't see the US letting a wacky regime infiltrate... too much at stake and there's no ISIS or w/e looming over the area.

sorry breh but we ain't about to let the US come in and fukk up our shop like that. You can come in and buy our products, but foh if you're trying to tell us how to run our business

China does have a longass list of issues though (which country doesn't?) but the last thing we need is the US getting involved in our shyt. You guys already think you run the goddamn universe. No offense but we got this. Communism sucks, but extreme capitalism mixed with blind adherence to the bible isn't gonna fly with us. Besides, we already are capitalist as fukk

Obama and whoever the next president is just need to take care of ya own. I see you guys ain't doing shyt about ISIS tho

 

[duncanthetall]

sorry breh but we ain't about to let the US come in and fukk up our shop like that. You can come in and buy our products, but foh if you're trying to tell us how to run our business

China does have a longass list of issues though (which country doesn't?) but the last thing we need is the US getting involved in our shyt. You guys already think you run the goddamn universe. No offense but we got this. Communism sucks, but extreme capitalism mixed with blind adherence to the bible isn't gonna fly with us. Besides, we already are capitalist as fukk

Obama and whoever the next president is just need to take care of ya own. I see you guys ain't doing shyt about ISIS tho

yeah, you don't follow "communism sucks" up with "but". Nah son. It sucks. The end. Stop caping

 

[CriticalThought]

Better put your money on America falling. Plenty of countries are joining their development bank. Once the dollar is kicked to the curb...well be 3rd world status with hyperinflation(understatement) in no time. Better get ready...it's gonna be the likes of which this country hasn't seen.

 

[CHL]

yeah, you don't follow "communism sucks" up with "but". Nah son. It sucks. The end. Stop caping

Communism and pure capitalism are just as terrible as each other.

Spoiler

It's very important to distinguish between socialism () and communism however.

 

[TLR Is Mental Poison]

sorry breh but we ain't about to let the US come in and fukk up our shop like that. You can come in and buy our products, but foh if you're trying to tell us how to run our business

China does have a longass list of issues though (which country doesn't?) but the last thing we need is the US getting involved in our shyt. You guys already think you run the goddamn universe. No offense but we got this. Communism sucks, but extreme capitalism mixed with blind adherence to the bible isn't gonna fly with us. Besides, we already are capitalist as fukk

Obama and whoever the next president is just need to take care of ya own. I see you guys ain't doing shyt about ISIS tho

This nikka drunk off that Mao red Kool Aid

 

[Kritic]

Step your language game up.

We covered on mandarin Spanish and english.

fuq all that.

google will probably have some shyt were we talk and the person's headpiece translates to the language they desire. i'm not learning anything else. i'm set in my ways.

or by then i would talk to my iphone and it translates to their phone.