Scott Rasmussen: But what had happened was...

[Dusty Bake Activate]

Rasmussen explains - POLITICO.com

By*CHARLES MAHTESIAN*|*

11/11/12 1:05 PM EST

Rasmussen Reports, the prolific automated pollster whose projections fell far from the mark Tuesday,*explains*what went wrong:

Our final daily presidential tracking poll showed Romney at 49% and Obama at 48%. Instead, the president got 50% of the vote and Romney 48%. We were disappointed that our final results were not as close to the final result as they had been in preceding elections. There was a similar pattern in the state polls. For example, in Ohio we projected a tie at 49% but the president reached 50% of the vote and the challenger got just 48%. Although every individual result in the battleground states was within the margin of error, the numbers we projected were consistently a bit more favorable for Romney than the actual results.

A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased, or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly 60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority vote.Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly. Pre-election data suggested that voters over 65 were more enthusiastic about voting than they had been four years earlier so the decline bears further examination.

As mea culpas go, this one is a little thin. While Rasmussen wasn’t alone in misreading the composition of the 2012 electorate and it’s true that all the firm’s battleground state polls were within the 4-point margin of error, there are a few clunkers in there. In Wisconsin, for example, Rasmussen was the only public pollster reporting a 49-49 tie -- in the final two weeks, the five other pollsters in the field there pegged Obama’s lead between 3 and 9 percentage points. The actual result was a 53-46 Obama win.Colorado was similarly errant. In the final round of polls, Rasmussen was the one reporting the biggest Romney lead -- 50-47 **– but the outcome was 51-46 Obama.Rasmussen got a few states right – placing Obama in the lead in Nevada and New Hampshire and Romney ahead in North Carolina – but simply getting the winner correct in 3 of 9 battleground states isn’t going to win over the many detractors who regularly dismiss the firm’s polls for their often overly rosy GOP predictions.

Lol...dude basically said he didn't think that many non-whites would show up to the polls. Maybe people can finally stop taking this joke of a company seriously now.

 

[Mr swag]

Them and all up are done


They had Romney up 6

 

[GoddamnyamanProf]

In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign.

Clowns were either so isolated in their bubble of Conservative nonsense or they were really on some "If you say it enough it'll come true!" shyt.

 

[Colilluminati]

AKA

We tried to fire the base up,shyt ain't even work

 

[StatUS]

fukk ESPN too

 

[I_Got_Da_Burna]

LOL at these comments on Hotair.com....these losers are really salty

I would say it is voter fraud. Not their model.

Wow: Romney Got Zero Votes In 59 Philadelphia Voting Divisions – Update:*Romney Received Zero Votes In Nine Cleveland Precincts… | Weasel Zippers

Voter from WA State on November 12, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I read a comment from a poll worker who said that senior citizens were told their names were not on the voter list and they had to fill out provisional ballots, which then weren’t counted.

I also read a comment from someone who did exit polling and was instructed not to poll any white seniors.

Makes you wonder…

Another freaking assessment that ignores voter fraud.

Republican poll watchers get thrown out by Democrats but that’s not in the assessment.

Democrats get caught on video planning mass fraud… but we’re not going to speculate that mass fraud happened.

Democrats brag on facebook about voting 5 and 6 times… but we lost because of the TEA party.

Military ballots get lost or not even handed out and it’s the Democrats who make news accusing the Republicans of suppressing the black vote.

News of fraud everywhere but we’re just going to pretend it doesn’t happen and it doesn’t matter.
Let me tell you, the freaking Democrat party would not be doing this crap if they thought it didn’t matter!

Who makes the software for these electronic voting machines? Who writes the codes? How easily can they be manipulated? Who and how are the votes counted? Who builds the machines? Who controls the machines? What are the qualifications to watch over the machines? Are there always independent observers from the freaking time the code is written and the software is installed to the time the votes are counted?

We don’t know any of this! Who does?

Oh stupid black helicopter questions. Just shut up, fall in line because ObamaCare is the law of the land.

Obama won more than 99% of the vote in more than 100 Ohio precincts, but the media’s going to keep on telling us Romney lost because of his crappy ground game…yep, no sign of cheating here!

Election Fraud? Barack Obama Won More Than 99 Percent Of The Vote In More Than 100 Ohio Precincts | Market Daily News

 

[daze23]

wow, as long winded rationalization of why they were off by a few percent when predicting the popular vote, when that doesn't matter anyway

 

[It Takes A Nation...]

Clowns were either so isolated in their bubble of Conservative nonsense or they were really on some "If you say it enough it'll come true!" shyt.

They never expected the courts not to be cooperative with their voter suppression schemes.

 

[Pool_Shark]

It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly.

These old b*stards are finally going away

 

[Julius Skrrvin]

:sadrasmussen:

 

[Type Username Here]

Nate owns all their asses anyway.