Summary and some comments why it's a big issue for Trump, Sessions and - to start in a slightly different direction - Fox news.
I posted on another subreddit less than two hours ago that Fox News had accidentally posted a draft article saying that McCabe had been fired
[1]. The fact that less than two hours after that mistake McCabe truly
was fired suggests Fox may have had advanced knowledge of McCabe's firing. Some have commented here and elsewhere that it's likely all news sources have prepared these articles in advance - which is definitely the case, and it's entirely possible there's no connection. However, accidentally leaking it
two hours before the firing is
one hell of a coincidence.
We already knew Fox had a hotline to Trump's lawyers:
minutes after a recent report, Herridge (of Fox news) had
already spoken to Trump's representatives
[2] and had begun issuing criticism of Rod Rosenstein, the deputy AG. So, combined with tonight's news, this adds a lot of strength to the view that Fox has been receiving information from the White House or others in advance of public notices. However note that the decision to fire McCabe
did not come from the white house: That's a decision made by the DOJ, which suggests either that
if Fox received advanced notice, this came from the DOJ (i.e. Sessions or someone close to him leaking it), or that Trump may have been pressuring Sessions to fire McCabe (and his lawyers, or close aides/confidants with access to Trump or his lawyers were relaying that to Fox news). Regardless of Fox, if Trump pressured Sessions to make this decision, it's a smoking gun for obstruction of justice.
With that out of the way, let's talk about Sessions. The choice of whether or not to fire McCabe was a nasty pickle for Jeff Sessions: neither choice had a good outcome for him. He Recused himself from the Russia investigation
[3], although Trump reportedly urged him not to
[4]. Given that McCabe is a possible witness in Mueller's probe, the firing of McCabe will be interpreted by the special counsel as witness tampering. Trump pushed for the removal of Andrew McCabe (deputy director of the FBI) publicly and on Twitter
[5][6], and likely pressured Sessions to fire him privately as well. This will be seen as Trump punishing McCabe for his role in the Clinton investigation and for his disloyalty by jeopardizing his pension. Trump already made aggressive verbal communications to punish McCabe for his disloyalty in the past
[7], telling him to ask his wife how it felt to be a loser. Trump also asked McCabe who he voted for
[8] - so pushing for his dismissal is a huge conflict of interests given (1) that Trump had pressured him for loyalty and (2) that McCabe is a witness in a probe where Trump is a suspect.
Although the firing of McCabe was based on an internal recommendation
[9], to have made a decision to fire him so quickly is unprecedented given his seniority and track record (20+ years with the FBI, debuty director). Since he had also already stepped down
[10] and was less than one week from retirement, it's clear that McCabe was fired with the sole purpose being to withhold his pension.
It's worth noting that this may be the lesser of two evils (at least for the Mueller investigation), and that may in part explain Sessions' (arguably unwise) decision: if Sessions
had opted not to fire McCabe, it's likely that Trump would have fired Sessions (although this is still possible) over his disloyalty and replaced him with someone willing to interfere with the special counsel investigation. Since Sessions is recused, the decision should have been handed off to Rod Rosenstein - or, since he may also recuse (since he initiated the investigation in which McCabe is a witness), Jesse Pannucio (the acting AAG)
[11].
On the other hand, this is clearly an attempt to sully a witness in Mueller's probe, and McCabe himself has pointed this out in his official statement
[12]. It will likely be easy for Mueller's prosecutors to now show that Sessions has engaged in witness tampering, and ironically that's Jeff Sessions' own fault: because he recused himself, it shows beyond a reasonable doubt that he knew he should be judicially disqualified from making decisions affecting the Russia investigation.
If Sessions and/or Rosenstein have not been fired, what this means is bad news for McCabe but (ironically) a longer lifespan of Mueller's probe (since, as I wrote yesterday, if Sessions is fired Mueller will have a "now or never" moment to file indictments against Trump before the new AG is confirmed, who may or may not approve his recommendatons
[13]). The real danger to Mueller's investigation would be firing Rosenstein - since next in line to be acting deputy AG is hard-line right wing republican that has advocated over-extending executive privilege beyond what it reasonably covers
[14] and who is also a Trump appointee (that is, Noel Francisco).
In addition, Jeff Sessions is now unquestionably implicated in witness tampering and obstruction of justice himself.