There are a lot of moving parts, many variables. It's a very serious case, and a high profile one, but these federal money laundering cases do not always end up with the hammer dropped, at all. One, a guy like Manafort, has a lot of pull still, he can hire a team of heavy hitters to rep him. Two, he can cooperate. Three, at sentencing the government weighs the criminal history of the defendant, the charges, the pleas, you get reductions for cooperation, and accepting responsibility, there are a lot of ways it can go. I follow federal cases in San Diego, a lot of money laundering goes to the lower end of sentencing, because almost all is tied to Mexican organized crime, and they cooperate, and get the sentence reduced.
Case in point: A guy in SD laundered 3.5 million into 35 airplane purchases to buy planes for Sinaloa Cartel traffickers, including some linked directly to Chapo, he got five years, credit for 2 years already in, he will be out in 2020.
Another guy, an attorney was using IOLTA accounts to transfer proceeds from drug trafficking into Mexico, and other places. It's like a 20 count indictment, he got 5 years. I think they were accused of laundering 20 million.
Feds convicted at trial, a Mexican businessman, of 36 counts including conspiracy to commit offenses against the United States, and election tampering, by funneling money from a foreign national to influence a mayoral election. It was a high profile case, he lost at trial, refused all deals, and in the end, the AUSA asked for 6 years, and the Judge gave him 3.
The Manafort story is far from over, he's got a lot of moves to make still.