Russia is now classified as a high-income country by the World Bank, thanks to the war in Ukraine. 👀
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#BOTHSIDES
Superstar
me too... that's what the coli told meWait, I thought their financial system was in shambles and they couldn't even withdraw money from the ATM's
Video literally says the following1. The war is spurring growth
2. industries surrounding the war are the ones growing
3. Wages are up due to casualties
Soooooo...is this going to be construed as sustainable here on the coli? Russia still has allies and energy it sells. Not pulling out of the war is literally what is floating them. This is not the droids folks are looking for.
Lose a sizeable portion of your populace to war and pay the remaining more and consider it a win, brehs.
Mister Terrific
It’s in the name
The IMF only reports what member countries tell them.
An economy fueled by loans
[Economist] Evgeniy Nadorshin believes the current rate of growth of lending in Russia is unhealthy. “Russians are aggressively taking out loans and microloans, despite increased rates, which are not offset by income growth. The country's economy is now growing not because of investment and import substitution that replaces foreign goods with domestic production, but due to growth in consumer demand, which is fueled by loans," he explains. "Such economic growth cannot be supported for long."
[...]
At first glance, the Russian economy appears to be back on track after a rough 2022, with positive GDP growth recorded over the past five quarters, including for the first four months of 2024. Yet upon closer inspection, it becomes clear that this performance is a facade hiding the truth: The war is drugging Russia’s economy, and making life in the country worse off.
According to Moscow-based news website RBC, recent data show that yearly inflation is up 8.61%, far from the 4% target set by the Russian Central Bank. RBC also reports that consumer prices have increased by 3.82% since the beginning of the year. For months, the interest rate has been stable at 16% (compared to 4.25% in the EU and 5.50% in the U.S.), in an attempt by Russian authorities to increase the cost of borrowing and deter economic activity.
src: A Trillion Rubles Of Microloans: How Household Debt Is Pushing Russia Into Recession -
A Trillion Rubles Of Microloans: How Household Debt Is Pushing Russia Into Recession
Aggressive lending is undermining Russia’s economy, and citizens' incomes are not keeping up with expenses. It's the clear sign of a looming economic crisis.
worldcrunch.com
The word bank is also expecting the Russian economy to slow to 1% growth by 2026
It is important to actually research what things mean and analyze sources of information
im not you
All Star
Russian economy faces "creeping Crisis", economists warn
A Kremlin-lined think tank said Russia's war-hit economy could face turbulence in the second of 2024.
www.newsweek.com
russian journalists risking being thrown out of windows to give more than a casual take on the matter but COLI MANDINGO knows best i guess
#BOTHSIDES
Superstar
Just sharing the news from credible sourcesRussian economy faces "creeping Crisis", economists warn
A Kremlin-lined think tank said Russia's war-hit economy could face turbulence in the second of 2024.
russian journalists risking being thrown out of windows to give more than a casual take on the matter but COLI MANDINGO knows best i guess
FishNGrits
Superstar
It’s not sustainable. The country is producing for the war but not for anything else. It’s gonna hurt down the line. This has been done before.Wait, I thought their financial system was in shambles and they couldn't even withdraw money from the ATM's
1/1
In the first 4 months of 2024, Hungary's exports to Kyrgyzstan were $81 mn versus around $2 mn in the same 4-month period before Russia invaded Ukraine. That's a rise of 3400%. Nothing about this is normal. Nothing about it should be happening. This stuff is going to Russia...
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
In the first 4 months of 2024, Hungary's exports to Kyrgyzstan were $81 mn versus around $2 mn in the same 4-month period before Russia invaded Ukraine. That's a rise of 3400%. Nothing about this is normal. Nothing about it should be happening. This stuff is going to Russia...
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing to process payments from Russia, report says
Almost all Chinese banks, even small regional ones, are refusing to accept direct transactions from Russia, business execs have told Russian media.
www.businessinsider.com
Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing to process payments from Russia, report says
Huileng Tan
Listen
03:25 min
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Gavriil Grigorov /Pool/AFP/Getty Images
- Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing payments from Russia, a report from the Russian outlet Izvestia says.
- Russia has been using smaller banks and non-US-dollar currencies to bypass Western sanctions.
- But doors to alternative transfer methods are closing fast; Russia is now looking to crypto and barter trade.
The impact of the West's sanctions just seems to be getting worse and worse for Russia.
Now, 98% of Chinese banks — even small regional ones — are refusing to accept direct Chinese payment transfers from Russia, Alexey Razumovsky, the commercial director of the payments company Impaya Rus, told the pro-Kremlin media outlet Izvestia.
Such issues appear to have intensified over the past three weeks, as smaller Chinese financial companies were still processing Russian payments in May and June, Izvestia reported.
Last month, the Russian outlet Kommersant reported that about 80% of bank transfers made in the Chinese yuan were bouncing back with no explanation after being stalled for weeks while banks decided whether they could transact.
Razumovsky told Izvestia the payment challenges with Chinese banks could contribute to supply-chain difficulties and inflation in Russia.
Doors between Russia and Chinese banks are closing
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia and its trade partners have skirted sanctions by using smaller banks and other payment modes or non-US-dollar currencies to circumvent the West's ban of some Russian banks from the widely-used SWIFT messaging system.
But the doors have been closing for these workarounds since December, when the US approved secondary sanctions targeting financial institutions that were helping Russia.
Alexey Poroshin, the general director of the investment and consulting firm First Group, told Izvestia that some financial institutions in China were even starting to reject payments in the ruble.
Poroshin said Chinese banks weren't keen on doing business with Russian companies through financial institutions in Hong Kong, a special administrative region under China.
Ekaterina Kizevich, the CEO of Atvira, a Russian foreign-trade consultancy, told Izvestia that Russian companies were still sending yuan to China via Russian bank branches on the mainland, but there was a 5% markup.
Many Chinese companies would still refuse payments from the Russian bank branches on the mainland, Impaya Rus' Razumovsky told the newspaper.
Russia is rushing to set up alternative payment mechanisms
Russian businesses still have alternatives, such as conducting transactions through "friendly" third-party countries.
Russia is also rushing to set up alternative payment systems, including crypto, to facilitate trade.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Russia and China were even planning to revive the age-old practice of barter trade to get around Western sanctions.
Russia's problems with paying Chinese suppliers would cut off a crucial pillar of support for its war against Ukraine, Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote in a June report.
"While Russia's exports help finance its war effort, its imports of industrial goods are vastly more important for sustaining the economic, political, and military dimensions of its war effort, at least in the short term," he wrote.
"Russia's imports prevent shortages, maintain political support for the war by stabilizing living standards, and, in some cases, facilitate military capabilities," Webster added.
Kunty McPhuck
Scust Szn has Returned
Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing to process payments from Russia, report says
Almost all Chinese banks, even small regional ones, are refusing to accept direct transactions from Russia, business execs have told Russian media.
Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing to process payments from Russia, report says
Huileng Tan
Listen
03:25 min
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Gavriil Grigorov /Pool/AFP/Getty Images
- Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing payments from Russia, a report from the Russian outlet Izvestia says.
- Russia has been using smaller banks and non-US-dollar currencies to bypass Western sanctions.
- But doors to alternative transfer methods are closing fast; Russia is now looking to crypto and barter trade.
The impact of the West's sanctions just seems to be getting worse and worse for Russia.
Now, 98% of Chinese banks — even small regional ones — are refusing to accept direct Chinese payment transfers from Russia, Alexey Razumovsky, the commercial director of the payments company Impaya Rus, told the pro-Kremlin media outlet Izvestia.
Such issues appear to have intensified over the past three weeks, as smaller Chinese financial companies were still processing Russian payments in May and June, Izvestia reported.
Last month, the Russian outlet Kommersant reported that about 80% of bank transfers made in the Chinese yuan were bouncing back with no explanation after being stalled for weeks while banks decided whether they could transact.
Razumovsky told Izvestia the payment challenges with Chinese banks could contribute to supply-chain difficulties and inflation in Russia.
Doors between Russia and Chinese banks are closing
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia and its trade partners have skirted sanctions by using smaller banks and other payment modes or non-US-dollar currencies to circumvent the West's ban of some Russian banks from the widely-used SWIFT messaging system.
But the doors have been closing for these workarounds since December, when the US approved secondary sanctions targeting financial institutions that were helping Russia.
Alexey Poroshin, the general director of the investment and consulting firm First Group, told Izvestia that some financial institutions in China were even starting to reject payments in the ruble.
Poroshin said Chinese banks weren't keen on doing business with Russian companies through financial institutions in Hong Kong, a special administrative region under China.
Ekaterina Kizevich, the CEO of Atvira, a Russian foreign-trade consultancy, told Izvestia that Russian companies were still sending yuan to China via Russian bank branches on the mainland, but there was a 5% markup.
Many Chinese companies would still refuse payments from the Russian bank branches on the mainland, Impaya Rus' Razumovsky told the newspaper.
Russia is rushing to set up alternative payment mechanisms
Russian businesses still have alternatives, such as conducting transactions through "friendly" third-party countries.
Russia is also rushing to set up alternative payment systems, including crypto, to facilitate trade.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Russia and China were even planning to revive the age-old practice of barter trade to get around Western sanctions.
Russia's problems with paying Chinese suppliers would cut off a crucial pillar of support for its war against Ukraine, Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote in a June report.
"While Russia's exports help finance its war effort, its imports of industrial goods are vastly more important for sustaining the economic, political, and military dimensions of its war effort, at least in the short term," he wrote.
"Russia's imports prevent shortages, maintain political support for the war by stabilizing living standards, and, in some cases, facilitate military capabilities," Webster added.
Is this Xi way of telling Vlad to end his war?
Just so he can start his one in Taiwan
Json
Superstar
BRICS 4 Bricks
east
Screwed up... till tha casket drops!!
what "high income economy" needs to offer loans for $14 loaves of bread?
hey, at least you get 0% apr for the first 12 months
hey, at least you get 0% apr for the first 12 months
1/11
@Mylovanov
Russia’s economy is in worse shape than Ukraine’s. Russian Central Bank head Nabiullina admits it has nearly exhausted its resources.
Addressing parliament today, Nabiullina complained about
1. No people left. A record-low unemployment at 2.4%, worsening labor shortages 1/
2/11
@Mylovanov
73% of enterprises face labor shortages 2/
3/11
@Mylovanov
2. Production at its limits. Factory capacity utilization surpasses 80%, a record high 3/
4/11
@Mylovanov
“When an economy reaches the limits of its productive capacity while demand continues to be stimulated,” Nabiullina warned, “stagflation arises.” 4/
5/11
@Mylovanov
3. Credit bubble and isolation. Rising interest rates are driving up credit costs, commodity industries are losing Western markets, and defense factories are running at full capacity 5/
6/11
@Mylovanov
4. Slowing GDP growth. GDP growth slowed to 3.1% in Q3, down from 4.1% in Q2 and 5.4% in Q1. 6/
7/11
@Mylovanov
5. Stagflation. The Central Bank predicts near-stagnation next year, with GDP growth of 0.5%-1% and flat investment and private consumption. 7/
8/11
@Mylovanov
Bloomberg says that Russia’s elite describe grim economic conditions: Western company exits have weakened industrial capacity, import substitution lags, and mass mobilization has worsened labor shortages. 8/
9/11
@Mylovanov
Source in Russian X Набиуллина заявила об исчерпании почти всех ресурсов российской экономики - Русская служба The Moscow Times
10/11
@viies7
Please, collapse already
11/11
@Mylovanov
it will happen
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@Mylovanov
Russia’s economy is in worse shape than Ukraine’s. Russian Central Bank head Nabiullina admits it has nearly exhausted its resources.
Addressing parliament today, Nabiullina complained about
1. No people left. A record-low unemployment at 2.4%, worsening labor shortages 1/
2/11
@Mylovanov
73% of enterprises face labor shortages 2/
3/11
@Mylovanov
2. Production at its limits. Factory capacity utilization surpasses 80%, a record high 3/
4/11
@Mylovanov
“When an economy reaches the limits of its productive capacity while demand continues to be stimulated,” Nabiullina warned, “stagflation arises.” 4/
5/11
@Mylovanov
3. Credit bubble and isolation. Rising interest rates are driving up credit costs, commodity industries are losing Western markets, and defense factories are running at full capacity 5/
6/11
@Mylovanov
4. Slowing GDP growth. GDP growth slowed to 3.1% in Q3, down from 4.1% in Q2 and 5.4% in Q1. 6/
7/11
@Mylovanov
5. Stagflation. The Central Bank predicts near-stagnation next year, with GDP growth of 0.5%-1% and flat investment and private consumption. 7/
8/11
@Mylovanov
Bloomberg says that Russia’s elite describe grim economic conditions: Western company exits have weakened industrial capacity, import substitution lags, and mass mobilization has worsened labor shortages. 8/
9/11
@Mylovanov
Source in Russian X Набиуллина заявила об исчерпании почти всех ресурсов российской экономики - Русская служба The Moscow Times
10/11
@viies7
Please, collapse already
11/11
@Mylovanov
it will happen
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
1/12
@TrentTelenko
Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.
1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%
1/
Russia economy crumbling with food prices skyrocketing as Putin's problems mount
2/12
@TrentTelenko
The Russian railway system is now falling apart.
It's not one thing, it is everything.
The Western ball bearing were the excuse for the Russian railway system to fire its entire maintenance department in 2013.
2/
РЖД на 10 дней остановили отправку контейнеров в крупнейший терминал Московского региона - Русская служба The Moscow Times
3/12
@TrentTelenko
~40% of Russian railway rolling stock is Soviet era vintage.
Russia went to 100% utilization of the Trans-Siberian railway in the late summer of 2021 and has stayed there ever since.
Those rail cars were not well maintained to start with, less Western bearings.
3/
4/12
@TrentTelenko
Finnish firms were also hired out to do some of the Russian engine maintenance before Feb 2022.
All of the above ended in April 2022.
This isn't the first time I've mentioned this subject.
4/
[Quoted tweet]
The Putin regime is not the Soviet Union of old.
I suggest you look at the rolling stock "age cohorts" in Russian Railway system to get an idea how badly it is suffering from a lack of engine/wagon roller bearings from SKF & Amsted, given 100% Trans-Siberian use since Nov 2021.
5/12
@TrentTelenko
Modern railway roller bearings last 2 million kilometers with good rails and reliable preventive maintenance cycles.
That is 108 round trips from Moscow to Vladivostok and back in about 63 months on an 80% usage rate.
5/
[Quoted tweet]
Russian railway car trucks (illustrative photo
) rely upon Western SKF & Amsted cassette bearings that have not been supplied since May 2022 and the Russian co-production facilities were shut down from a lack of proprietary software...
3/
6/12
@TrentTelenko
The war has lasted 2 years ~9 months with 100% usage since 3rd qtr 2021
Things have gotten so clogged on the east-west pats of the Russian railway system that Russian companies are _Trucking_ railway rolling stock just to have the ability to move
6/
[Quoted tweet]
Russia's rail system is in such disarray that empty rail carriages are being moved by truck.
The increased use of roads will see an acceleration in their deterioration
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1858216456523255808/pu/vid/avc1/1280x720/_2OooSQwx9FMIYl4.mp4
7/12
@TrentTelenko
...product by train on other parts of the system.
Half of Russian engines and rolling stock may have burned out their Western bearings by now.
The bill for delayed/deferred maintenance has come due.
Plus, the Chinese rail bearing have far less
https://xcancel.com/TrentTelenko/status/1821249917350023506
7/
[Quoted tweet]
The Russian Railway monopoly is suffering a perfect storm of Western railway cassette bearing wear out, maintenance work force burnout, and administrative chaos between oligarchs owning rolling stock.
Now it is being over stressed by priority...
20/
t.me/vchkogpu/49636
8/12
@TrentTelenko
...life & require lubrication that Western bearings do not.
The Moscow Times article makes clear that lubricated Chinese bearings are not a real option for Russia as there is also a huge labor shortage for locomotive crews as well as for rolling stock.
Clip H/T @Prune602
8/
9/12
@TrentTelenko
The Russian rail system collapse sequence is as follows:
1st trains on remote Russian rail lines derail.
2nd more Russian trains on lines closer to Moscow derail.
3rd the Russian repair trains derail on the way to open derailments.
9/
[Quoted tweet]
Trains are derailing all over Russia: Freight train derailed and crashed into warehouses in Orenburg region.
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1824131127281586178/pu/vid/avc1/1280x720/ubvBQK76lQD7j-PT.mp4
10/12
@TrentTelenko
4th we see triage as the Russian rail system starts collapsing on a LARGE SCALE.
5th, Russian rail transport apocalypse
The Moscow Times article points to Russia closing in on #4.
Clip H/T @Prune602
10/10
11/12
@TrentTelenko
@threadreaderapp unroll please
12/12
@Sweeegu
It says the issue is a shortage of employees, did i read it wrong??
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@TrentTelenko
Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.
1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%
1/
Russia economy crumbling with food prices skyrocketing as Putin's problems mount
2/12
@TrentTelenko
The Russian railway system is now falling apart.
It's not one thing, it is everything.
The Western ball bearing were the excuse for the Russian railway system to fire its entire maintenance department in 2013.
2/
РЖД на 10 дней остановили отправку контейнеров в крупнейший терминал Московского региона - Русская служба The Moscow Times
3/12
@TrentTelenko
~40% of Russian railway rolling stock is Soviet era vintage.
Russia went to 100% utilization of the Trans-Siberian railway in the late summer of 2021 and has stayed there ever since.
Those rail cars were not well maintained to start with, less Western bearings.
3/
4/12
@TrentTelenko
Finnish firms were also hired out to do some of the Russian engine maintenance before Feb 2022.
All of the above ended in April 2022.
This isn't the first time I've mentioned this subject.
4/
[Quoted tweet]
The Putin regime is not the Soviet Union of old.
I suggest you look at the rolling stock "age cohorts" in Russian Railway system to get an idea how badly it is suffering from a lack of engine/wagon roller bearings from SKF & Amsted, given 100% Trans-Siberian use since Nov 2021.
5/12
@TrentTelenko
Modern railway roller bearings last 2 million kilometers with good rails and reliable preventive maintenance cycles.
That is 108 round trips from Moscow to Vladivostok and back in about 63 months on an 80% usage rate.
5/
[Quoted tweet]
Russian railway car trucks (illustrative photo
) rely upon Western SKF & Amsted cassette bearings that have not been supplied since May 2022 and the Russian co-production facilities were shut down from a lack of proprietary software...3/
6/12
@TrentTelenko
The war has lasted 2 years ~9 months with 100% usage since 3rd qtr 2021
Things have gotten so clogged on the east-west pats of the Russian railway system that Russian companies are _Trucking_ railway rolling stock just to have the ability to move
6/
[Quoted tweet]
Russia's rail system is in such disarray that empty rail carriages are being moved by truck.
The increased use of roads will see an acceleration in their deterioration
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1858216456523255808/pu/vid/avc1/1280x720/_2OooSQwx9FMIYl4.mp4
7/12
@TrentTelenko
...product by train on other parts of the system.
Half of Russian engines and rolling stock may have burned out their Western bearings by now.
The bill for delayed/deferred maintenance has come due.
Plus, the Chinese rail bearing have far less
https://xcancel.com/TrentTelenko/status/1821249917350023506
7/
[Quoted tweet]
The Russian Railway monopoly is suffering a perfect storm of Western railway cassette bearing wear out, maintenance work force burnout, and administrative chaos between oligarchs owning rolling stock.
Now it is being over stressed by priority...
20/
t.me/vchkogpu/49636
8/12
@TrentTelenko
...life & require lubrication that Western bearings do not.
The Moscow Times article makes clear that lubricated Chinese bearings are not a real option for Russia as there is also a huge labor shortage for locomotive crews as well as for rolling stock.
Clip H/T @Prune602
8/
9/12
@TrentTelenko
The Russian rail system collapse sequence is as follows:
1st trains on remote Russian rail lines derail.
2nd more Russian trains on lines closer to Moscow derail.
3rd the Russian repair trains derail on the way to open derailments.
9/
[Quoted tweet]
Trains are derailing all over Russia: Freight train derailed and crashed into warehouses in Orenburg region.
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1824131127281586178/pu/vid/avc1/1280x720/ubvBQK76lQD7j-PT.mp4
10/12
@TrentTelenko
4th we see triage as the Russian rail system starts collapsing on a LARGE SCALE.
5th, Russian rail transport apocalypse
The Moscow Times article points to Russia closing in on #4.
Clip H/T @Prune602
10/10
11/12
@TrentTelenko
@threadreaderapp unroll please
12/12
@Sweeegu
It says the issue is a shortage of employees, did i read it wrong??
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196