Romney economic team debuts 'policy uncertainty index'

[zerozero]

this is some magical thinking I was calling out in the podcast#5.. this whole idea of tiny policy changes scaring 'job creators'

What is the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Really Telling Us? | Next New Deal

The uncertainty index consists of three parts. The first a news search for articles on policy uncertainty, which we'll return to in a minute. The second part has to do with disagreements among economic forecasters. And the last part is "the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years." Tax code provisions set to expire are weighted by the formula 0.5^((T+1)/12), where T is the number of months until the tax code expires. That means these provisions weigh more in the analysis as they get closer to expiring -- those with more time left have weights approaching 0, and those close to expiration approach 1.

And of course, as the paper notes, "An important recent example involves the Bush-era income tax cuts originally set to expire at the end of 2010." The way the weighting works is that it jumps in the two years before expiration, which means the tax cuts scheduled to expire at the end of 2010 really start to matter for the index starting in late 2008, when President Obama is elected.

Watch that again. George W. Bush's economic advisors, like Glenn Hubbard, pass a series of tax cuts in the early 2000s that are set to expire 10 years out. When Obama gets into office the deadline starts to approach, creating "uncertainty" in this index. Then people like Hubbard blame President Obama for all that uncertainty caused by the design of the Bush tax cuts. Brilliant.

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

what exactly is Mitt's economic policies? I haven't heard word one about what this guy is going to do to fix the economy. All I hear is him blaming Obama

 

[zerozero]

what exactly is Mitt's economic policies? I haven't heard word one about what this guy is going to do to fix the economy. All I hear is him blaming Obama

 

[Robbie3000]

Bullshyt Business Consulting nonsense.