Poly Market: International Bets for the US Presidential Election 💵

[#BOTHSIDES]

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

 

[UpAndComing]

What metrics are they using for their predictions

- Polls?
- Youtube views?
- Social Media engagement?
- Newspaper articles?

 

[Dorian Breh]

The Polymarket line is completely driven by one account based out of France put $24m on Trump through four different accounts.

What metrics are they using for their predictions

- Polls?
- Youtube views?
- Social Media engagement?
- Newspaper articles?

Its entirely based on peoples betting. People put open calls in (or morons aka MAGAs will buy at list price)n

and the line moves as the money flows

 

[#BOTHSIDES]

What metrics are they using for their predictions

- Polls?
- Youtube views?
- Social Media engagement?
- Newspaper articles?

I’ve been watch it since it was Biden vs trump… when Kamala stepped on the scene, she was up.

 

[#BOTHSIDES]

The Polymarket line is completely driven by one account based out of France put $24m on Trump through four different accounts.




Its entirely based on peoples betting. People put open calls in (or morons aka MAGAs will buy at list price)n

and the line moves as the money flows

I think Robinhood allows presidential futures trading

Robinhood | Introducing the Presidential Election Market

 

[I Really Mean It]

#trumpset desperation creeping in.

 

[Pull Up the Roots]

Betting Market That Touts Massive Trump Win ‘Is Being Manipulated’: Experts

Elon Musk is among Trump supporters who say Polymarket shows he will win.

www.thedailybeast.com

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

fortune.com

 

[Pull Up the Roots]

The Crypto Website Where the Election Odds Swing in Trump’s Favor

Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency.

www.nytimes.com

“A gambling poll, as they call it,” Mr. Trump said recently of Polymarket. “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means that we’re doing pretty well.”
But Mr. Trump’s apparent lead may be an illusion.

The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person’s identity.

The election betting has placed enormous scrutiny on Polymarket, a start-up based in New York that allows people to wager crypto on everything from sports to Taylor Swift’s romantic prospects. The legality of gambling on politics remains murky in the United States. Polymarket stopped offering its services to U.S.-based customers in 2022, after settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for operating without registration.

 

[NOSaintsFan02]

that site is pointless

 

[#BOTHSIDES]

that site is pointless

great if you're a gambler

 

[NOSaintsFan02]

great if you're a gambler

yeah, but if you're from the U.S. you can't bet on that site

 

[ViShawn]

Considering gambling.

 

[Tres Leches]

it was 50/50 back when kamala roasted him in the debate

 

[Dorian Breh]

yeah, but if you're from the U.S. you can't bet on that site

You can on Kalshi and the odds are very similar because people are arbitraging against the French whales position