Nintendo Switch is under 1.5 million units away from besting PS2's U.S. sales

[Return of the Jedi]

Switch has been a great success, but one thing people don’t talk about when analyzing switch success is that nintendo combined their home console market and their handheld market in one machine.

The numbers are impressive, but very much less impressive if you consider all the handheld buyers that have now purchased a switch.

Nintendo will have lots of other portable/handheld competition going forward. Will be interesting to see how switch 2 performs in this new climate.

I don’t think switch 2 is gonna be the guaranteed runway success people are anticipating.

So much stiffer competition including the OG switch will make the switch 2 a luxury/super fan item for a while.

Agreed, but the primary significance of this is the fact that Nintendo’s margin for error is so much smaller now.

Nintendo was able to survive the mediocre sales of the N64 and GameCube because the Game Boy and GBA were just runaway hits. They no longer have that to fall back on…if the Switch 2 flops, no more cushion from the handheld market.

I recommend the podcast Acquired, they talked about this exact topic a lot In the 2nd half of their 2-parter on Nintendo.

 

[MeachTheMonster]

Agreed, but the primary significance of this is the fact that Nintendo’s margin for error is so much smaller now.

Nintendo was able to survive the mediocre sales of the N64 and GameCube because the Game Boy and GBA were just runaway hits. They no longer have that to fall back on…if the Switch 2 flops, no more cushion from the handheld market.

I recommend the podcast Acquired, they talked about this exact topic a lot In the 2nd half of their 2-parter on Nintendo.

Yup, they gone really have to convince people to upgrade.

They’ve created an environment where their fans don’t really care about technical upgrades.

Just telling people switch 2 will get them the same games with better graphics isn’t gonna get most people to run out and buy a switch 2.

They are gonna need a new gimmick or they are just gonna have to kill switch 1 so people are forced to upgrade

Gonna be interesting to see where they go from here

 

[-DMP-]

Agreed, but the primary significance of this is the fact that Nintendo’s margin for error is so much smaller now.

Nintendo was able to survive the mediocre sales of the N64 and GameCube because the Game Boy and GBA were just runaway hits. They no longer have that to fall back on…if the Switch 2 flops, no more cushion from the handheld market.

I recommend the podcast Acquired, they talked about this exact topic a lot In the 2nd half of their 2-parter on Nintendo.

Yup, they gone really have to convince people to upgrade.

They’ve created an environment where their fans don’t really care about technical upgrades.

Just telling people switch 2 will get them the same games with better graphics isn’t gonna get most people to run out and buy a switch 2.

They are gonna need a new gimmick or they are just gonna have to kill switch 1 so people are forced to upgrade

Gonna be interesting to see where they go from here

NGL these are good points. I just figured ppl would cop cuz Nintendo but yea I guess it will be interesting to see how the general public responds to the new switch.

My guess is Nintendo gon have to force they hands, eventually. Maybe not with Metroid but new Pokémon or Mario exclusive to switch 2.

 

[Fatboi1]

Yup, they gone really have to convince people to upgrade.

They’ve created an environment where their fans don’t really care about technical upgrades.

Just telling people switch 2 will get them the same games with better graphics isn’t gonna get most people to run out and buy a switch 2.

They are gonna need a new gimmick or they are just gonna have to kill switch 1 so people are forced to upgrade

Gonna be interesting to see where they go from here

I think they're going to have Switch 2 exclusives that people can't resist along with a clear differentiator just from a quick glance. A Switch 2 has to look like a newer piece of tech. Calling it a Super Switch or something else.

 

[IsThatBrothaMouzone?]

Nintendo is smart.

They realized that the console gaming market is getting older. Gen X and Millenials are the ones buying games for themselves AND their kids.

Xers/Millenials don't view the Switch as a primary gaming system. It's a souped up handheld that can also be played on the TV and has a lower price point than Series X or PS5. A lot of gamers buy Nintendo for their library and then pick Sony or M$ for the "main" gaming console. Throw in young kids who play Switch as their only console and its easy to see why they are firmly #1.

Nintendo doesn't want to compete directly against the other two, so they positioned themselves as a sidekick console. Offer an experience completely different from anyone else and charge less $$$ while doing it.

I'd like to see Nintendo aim for the top spot with a powerful console and 3rd-party support. There's only so much Mario, Smash Bros and Mario Kart I can take. I've got both Series X and PS5 and almost exclusively play those over the Switch. Outside of multiplayer party games, it's hard playing the same shyt with the cartoony graphics.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

A few analytical questions....

• How long has the Switch been out? How long was the PS2 out?
• How long has the Switch been out before the Switch 2 came out (I know it's not out yet)? How long was the PS2 out before the PS3 came out?
• What are the sales for each system in those time periods?

 

[Jaguar93]

I think they're going to have Switch 2 exclusives that people can't resist along with a clear differentiator just from a quick glance. A Switch 2 has to look like a newer piece of tech. Calling it a Super Switch or something else.

Smash 6

 

[Gizmo_Duck]

I actually agree with @MeachTheMonster there’s a reason nintendo is taking their time on releasing their next console.

Nintendo is a victim of its own success. You can only really exceed expectations once. It’s going to be far harder to make the line go up again after the switch. The next mario, zelda, animal crossing, and mario kart games aren’t going to outsell the current iterations (ToTK already proves that) and the next hardware definitely isn’t going to sell like the switch, especially now that Nintendo is forced into going cross-gen with backwards compatibility like the other two platforms.

There’s no more generational reset for Nintendo just like there wasn’t for xbox and playstation. They gotta work twice as hard to get people to transition to a new console with fewer games, they can’t sell remasters as much since they don’t have a failed console generation to lean on, and inevitably they are going to have to up prices.

Software now being higher resolution will require more dev time and money to make. It’s not as if you can push people to upgrade their current hardware if you aren’t offering better looking games. They are going to have to do a flat price increase of software to 70 dollars and the new hardware will be 400, the same price as the other consoles.

He also expressed the belief that it is inevitable that game development will become even longer, more complex, and more sophisticated in the future, and while M&A may be considered as a means to deal with this, he added, ``First of all, we need to firmly establish Nintendo within the company.'' The company's basic policy is to work with developers who understand the brand and have built the company's brand over the years to develop human resources who will be responsible for Nintendo's future development.

【任天堂決算】質疑応答にて次世代機となる“Switch後継機”に関する質問が相次ぐ。ニンテンドーアカウントは新ハードでも活用 | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com

任天堂は公式サイトにて“2024年3月期 決算説明会（オンライン）質疑応答”を掲載した。質疑の内容としては、Nintendo Switch（ニンテンドースイッチ）の後継機に関わるものが大半を占めた。

www.famitsu.com

People think Nintendo exist in its own little bubble unaffected by problems the rest of the tech industry face. They’ve only been shielded from the downturn because of how behind their hardware is. The closer they get to the likes of current gen development the more issues they are going to face, which mimic the rest of the industry, again…slower development time, costlier, less mainline game releases.

Nintendo are going to have to do M&A and expand it’s 3rd party development deals to keep up.

 

[MeachTheMonster]

I think they're going to have Switch 2 exclusives that people can't resist along with a clear differentiator just from a quick glance. A Switch 2 has to look like a newer piece of tech. Calling it a Super Switch or something else.

With costs up it’s gonna be really difficult for them to justify big money on software but not selling it to the hundreds of millions of people that already have a nintendo console.

Also the switch library is held up by lots of 3rd party AA/indie titles. They will have zero incentive to stop supporting SW1.

And the handheld market has alot more competition

They need a gimmick

 

[Gizmo_Duck]

They need a gimmick

They need a Wii sized gimmick to not run into the same problem the Wii U faced.

150m+ install base is cute when its the best selling console of all time but it’s not as cute when its a lead anchor around the neck of the next generation hardware for the entire generation.

Its naive to think the sales momentum of the current switch is going to carry onto new hardware simply offering graphical upgrades after they already sold the market on that not being an important aspect of their brand

 

[The Mad Titan]

It's odd for some of y'all to come to this conclusion about the switch and not the PS5.

On top of that to reason that The merger of a console/handheld is why the switch is selling like it is and will surpass The PS2's record but not think about how the PS2 set the record it did when they were far less gamers and far less TV screens in one house at those times.

What could have been a catalyst for so many units being sold



Now let's bring it back to current times, you think the PS5 is profitable enough now and can keep doing what is doing and selling more and more without significant changes in strategy or price hikes?

Nintendo Is a victim of their own success PlayStation tho...

 

[The Mad Titan]

With costs up it’s gonna be really difficult for them to justify big money on software but not selling it to the hundreds of millions of people that already have a nintendo console.

Also the switch library is held up by lots of 3rd party AA/indie titles. They will have zero incentive to stop supporting SW1.

And the handheld market has alot more competition

They need a gimmick

I dunno, I disagree, the main reason people buy Nintendo systems unlike XB/PS is for their exclusives.

You're not getting mainline, Mario, Kirby, donkey Kong, Zelda, Metroid, Pikman, etc etc... anywhere else besides the Nintendo system.

Also third party support on Nintendo is kind of trash low-key and it has been since the GameCube.

When I say trash it's great for small indie like games, niche games, family fun games, and Japanese like games. Third party support there is strong, but almost anything else you are not going to the switch to find it. And if you do find a game like Star wars or Batman it's years later and subpar.


I say all this to say as long as they have a Mario or Zelda exclusive that's locked to the switch 2 and not available on the OG switch. People are buying it no questions asked.



To add to that Nintendo still doesn't have a high end looking 1st party game under their belt.

Seeing what they can do with more power are seeing a Mario or Zelda game with graphics of a PS4/Xb1 is going to be my huge.


Them consistently being a generation behind and having brand established characters, and quality games means that when they do finally decide to make the jump to the next generation it'll always be seeing those characters in action and how they put that power to use.

 

[MeachTheMonster]

say all this to say as long as they have a Mario or Zelda exclusive that's locked to the switch 2 and not available on the OG switch. People are buying it no questions asked.

That’s the problem tho.

They don’t have a generation of wii u/3ds games to port over to switch 2.

They won’t have the install base to cut off switch 1 with their biggest games, at least not for a while.

 

[The Mad Titan]

That’s the problem tho.

They don’t have a generation of wii u/3ds games to port over to switch 2.

They won’t have the install base to cut off switch 1 with their biggest games, at least not for a while.

If it was me and I was a Nintendo shoes everything we have left to port or remake would be switch 2 exclusives. While remasters would drop on both, I do think to switch 2 needs a gimmick though... Nintendo kind of put themself in that lane. And it's worked out for them, some of my favorite gaming memories are because Nintendo gimmicks lol, from the DS, dual screens, the pen, the AR, the Wii motes and motion sensors right down to the switch.

Hey maybe the switch too can bring back the VMU like controllers, or maybe they'll lay into a more digital/online gimmick this time.

 

[Rice N Beans]

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