Spong is a little overhyped, he hasn't looked elite level since moving up in weight. His footwork isn't the same, he doesn't put his hands and legs together like he used to. He can lose this but i don't think he will. The difference here could be that Nathan hasn't fought top level guys as consistently.
The HW tournament, Gokhan Saki is my favorite fighter out right now. Verhoeven though has been looking good, he's found a style that makes use of his size, his footwork and choices are better than ever. Saki will have his hands full trying to land a clean shot on a mobile, much heavier and taller man.
Ghita i think will be too much for Silva. They should have given that spot to Zimmerman.