Is there no thread on German politics? 2021 German Elections Thread
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Been actually following this quite a bit. Laschet is the successor to Merkel and the CDU/CSU and is supposed to be seen as the continuity of Merkel. But I think in the last couple of weeks the CDU/CSU have been polling much lower and may not be able to form a government.
On the opposition side, seems like the AfD has been gaining some traction as right wing/nationalism takes hold globally...
On the opposition side, seems like the AfD has been gaining some traction as right wing/nationalism takes hold globally...
I think the CDU/CSU power brokers made a mistake by making Laschet their candidate. Soeder is much more popular. Laschet comes off as a doofus.
People don't seem to like the Green candidate either. Apparently, she has been hurt also by some plagiarism allegations.
So Scholz, the SPD candidate, has emerged as the front runner not because anyone actually likes him, but because he doesn't put people off like the other options. He is a boring, steady centrist who is not controversial, doesn't make many mistakes, doesn't scare anyone.
Anyway, this turn of events is notable since the SPD was polling a distant third behind the CDU/CSU and the Greens not long ago. And the SPD has not held the chancellorship since the early 2000s.
A lot of left-leaning people are getting excited by the prospect of an SPD-led German government. It's been a long time in Germany, and more generally, social democrats have been taking L's across Europe for what seems like forever.
But here's the thing:
1. As I mentioned before, Scholz is a centrist.
2. the SPD need to form a coalition. Right now, the polling suggests they need the Greens and one other party. The most popular choice among the leadership of the SPD and the Greens is the FDP. The FDP are basically free-market, anti-tax and fiscally right-leaning and are socially left-leaning. The FDP would prefer a coalition with the CDU/CSU and are ideologically closer to them. The SPD and Greens going into coalition with the FDP basically means nothing big is going to get done. Another option is Die Linke (basically the "far left"). Going into coalition with Die Linke would open the door to meaningful reforms, such as raising taxes on the wealthy, raising the minimum wage, etc. But the powers that be in the SPD and the Green party want nothing to do with Die Linke and have all but ruled out a coalition with them. It is said that the only reason they haven't formally ruled it out is to maintain some leverage with the FDP.
Why sad?
1. I hoped the SPD would win more comfortably over the CDU. Now they appear virtually tied.
2. Die Linke is at 5% in the exit. If they get below 5% in the actual results, they might not have seats in the Bundestag. And even if they get into the Bundestag, their poor performance makes it seems unlikely that they will be part of the governing coalition.
More radical centrism in Germany
Yeah
It almost doesn't matter what the eventual coalition is, it will just be more centrism
The main thing I am hoping now is that Die Linke gets the 5% they need so that they don't go into the wilderness
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
[URL="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/25/world/europe/germany-election-merkel.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuonUktbfqohkQVUZBibKWsIjolqLmOLI2LF7iXLkKSGTWHNPy-keH4mH_QLIaLBgat913yieQJUJFo4Tc8FI770VOV1xGU7vq4GYmZ8BLmI88N2-UG1ng9eWB7sxtGKxMDf8ebh2nPju5UvcPmfgCPDUhCAxNU0y98seAFKu0X0NxanEFvckmYUtmKd8We0pAGsIdyKIvPH3ChVhO9rgbhHU6wg-X-sxSiiE1JfHqOpGKFMOfAqAGHBv4m886MdfOccUPcv8Jx0iccn5hNYBG3egXCKqEKLHL1KrYNAqGgE&referringSource=articleShare"]Affluent, Anxious and Almost Normal: A Journey Through Merkel’s Germany[/URL]
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/25/...tion-merkel.html?referringSource=articleShare
Merkel experienced so many crises and dealt with so many different world leaders over the decades it’s pretty incredible