Iran Nuclear Deal: USA remains out under Biden after failed 2022 JCPOA talks; Russia and Iran collaborating on nuclear items

[FAH1223]

Iran goofed

How did they goof? You do know they didn't violate this agreement? The US did.

 

[ZoeGod]

Russia, Turkey, India, China and many others will not abide to unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran. They will not bow to secondary sanctions if the U.S. tries to impose those.

Haley and Pompeo visited Asia and demanded that China and India, two of Iran's biggest oil customers, stop buying Iranian oil. Both countries said meh. They're begging China and India to not increase their imports when, in November, those sanctions bite, when some of Iran's customers stop buying and when more Iranian oil comes to the market.

Those talks happened some months ago and both countries asked for more time to think about the problem. China has now in principle agreed to the Trump request - but only after it made the necessary preparations:

The U.S. has been unable to persuade China to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations ...
Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, according to the officials, ...
...
China -- the world’s top crude buyer and Iran’s No. 1 customer -- has said previously that it opposed unilateral sanctions and lifted monthly oil imports from the country by 26 percent in July. It accounted for 35 percent the Iranian exports last month, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.​

India seems to have had the same idea:

India’s monthly oil imports from Iran surged by about 30 percent to a record 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, as state refiners’ intake surged ahead of U.S. sanctions in November, preliminary tanker arrival data obtained by Reuters showed.
...
July volumes were about 85 percent higher than year ago shipments of about 415,000 bpd, the data showed.
​

When in November the hard oil sanction against buyers of Iranian oil go into effect India and China will insist to keep their current volume flowing. Both have already increased their buys from Iran. They can now promise to Trump that they will not increase their imports from Iran because they already upped those by a very large amount. Iran exports between 2.2 to 2.8 million barrels per day. At least half of that will continue to flow to its two biggest customers. By that measure the sanctions already failed.

Trump can not even use the jurisdiction over the U.S. dollar to stop these trades. The deals with India and China are made under bilateral contracts in local currencies and futures contracts than can now be bought and sold in Shanghai where they are denominated in yuan.

In addition to the sanctions, Trump has launched a number of shady to outright brutal initiatives against Iran. It sent people to Europe to claim that Iran is behind some terror plots in Europe, and that this is enough reason to end the deal. But: "European officials, some skeptical that Iran is behind the plots, say the nuclear deal benefits the region." Still, some European leaders have no backbone and submit to U.S. pressure.

A U.S.-Israeli joint operation was set up to increase internal pressure in Iran. It will try to influence protesters in Iran and to incite terrorism. This is likely an early sign of that initiative:

A large shipment of weapons incl anti-aircraft guns, 7000 cannon projectiles, 73mm antitank cannons, other ammo found in east of #Iran. Kerman prosecutor gen. says they belonged to anti-government groups.
​

The key is if the Europeans keep their end of the deal but from the looks of it European buisness are fleeing Iran. The EU can’t force them to stay in Iran. India,China,Turkey and Russia all will still do trade with Iran regardless. So the Iranians will say what is the point in stay a deal in which they are under and intrusive sanctions regime for no reason while the EU and the US are not keeping their end of the deal. India and China already increased the amount of Iranian oil they want to buy so Iran is Gucci. So they will restart their nuclear program to force a nuclear crisis on Trump. And they will force Trump to make a decision. If it’s war there is no doubt in my mind Iran and China will give Iran intelligence and some weaponry to make the war much much much more costlier for the US.

 

[FAH1223]

Germany calls for global payment system independent of U.S.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Photo: Thomas Imo/Photothek via Getty Images

Germany's foreign minister Heiko Maas urged Europe to rethink its partnership with the U.S. in an op-ed in German newspaper Handelsblatt, calling for the establishment of independent payment channels in response to the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal.

The big picture: Later this year, the U.S. is expected to cut Iran off from SWIFT, an essential financial network that connects more than 11,000 banks around the world and allows countries to facilitate payments abroad. Maas' call to circumvent the system in order to preserve the Iran deal signals growing tensions in the alliance, recently aggravated by the Trump administration's rejection of a joint European request to be exempted from sanctions.

 

[Bawon Samedi]

Germany calls for global payment system independent of U.S.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Photo: Thomas Imo/Photothek via Getty Images

Germany's foreign minister Heiko Maas urged Europe to rethink its partnership with the U.S. in an op-ed in German newspaper Handelsblatt, calling for the establishment of independent payment channels in response to the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal.

The big picture: Later this year, the U.S. is expected to cut Iran off from SWIFT, an essential financial network that connects more than 11,000 banks around the world and allows countries to facilitate payments abroad. Maas' call to circumvent the system in order to preserve the Iran deal signals growing tensions in the alliance, recently aggravated by the Trump administration's rejection of a joint European request to be exempted from sanctions.

Aka time to bush USA.

 

[ZoeGod]

Germany calls for global payment system independent of U.S.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Photo: Thomas Imo/Photothek via Getty Images

Germany's foreign minister Heiko Maas urged Europe to rethink its partnership with the U.S. in an op-ed in German newspaper Handelsblatt, calling for the establishment of independent payment channels in response to the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal.

The big picture: Later this year, the U.S. is expected to cut Iran off from SWIFT, an essential financial network that connects more than 11,000 banks around the world and allows countries to facilitate payments abroad. Maas' call to circumvent the system in order to preserve the Iran deal signals growing tensions in the alliance, recently aggravated by the Trump administration's rejection of a joint European request to be exempted from sanctions.

John Kerry warned that walking away from the Iran nuclear deal would be the end of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[DrBanneker]

John Kerry warned that walking away from the Iran nuclear deal would be the end of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

I used to take some of your comparisons to the Third Century crisis with a grain of salt but I'll be damned if the Roman government losing control of the currency ain't sounding familiar.

 

[Strapped]

 

[ZoeGod]

I used to take some of your comparisons to the Third Century crisis with a grain of salt but I'll be damned if the Roman government losing control of the currency ain't sounding familiar.

That is what I have been saying for the longest. Reagan=Trajan, Bush 1/2=Hadrian, Clinton= Antoninus Pius, Obama=Marcus Auerilus. Trump=Valerian. What lead to the Crisis was increased spending on the military. Trajan expanded Rome to its zenith. That meant you needed more troops and more money to keep them on line.

A bigger empire meant more commitment. After the end of the Cold War the US was now almost everywhere. And the war on terror after 9/11 made the US to be fighting so many wars at once whic leads to over reach. The reason why the military and many American diplomats didn’t want war with Iran is that it would further bog the US down in the Mideast and give China a major opening in Asia. The US spent 2.5 trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan alone for almost 20 years of war. And got nothing out of it. This is why Obama did the deal because he knew unlike the delusional neoconservatives that America cannot fight three bloody wars in the Mideast, confront China in Asia, confront Russia in Europe and confront North Korea at the same time. The US military is already overstretched. And Obama and his advisers knew in the long run that China is a bigger threat to the US than the Taliban.
Plus with the massive debt the US has along with the massive tax cuts with increasing US defense spending is going to bankrupt the country in the long run. However Trump could accelerate it with war with Iran. And like Valerian who went to war with the Sassanid Persian empire it could end disastrously for him and America. And this time there will be no Auerlian to save the empire and bring it together again.

 

[ZoeGod]

@FAH1223 India is still going to buy Iranina oil. The trump administration plan is failing to isolate iran. All they are doing is isolating themselves.
India will continue to buy Iran's oil: Iranian foreign minister | Reuters

 

[DrBanneker]

@FAH1223 India is still going to buy Iranina oil. The trump administration plan is failing to isolate iran. All they are doing is isolating themselves.
India will continue to buy Iran's oil: Iranian foreign minister | Reuters

I know @FAH1223 thinks war with Iran isn't going to happen but leading up to these midterms and depending on their aftermath I think anything goes. We aren't dealing with normal people and normal calculations anymore.

 

[DrBanneker]

That is what I have been saying for the longest. Reagan=Trajan, Bush 1/2=Hadrian, Clinton= Antoninus Pius, Obama=Marcus Auerilus. Trump=Valerian. What lead to the Crisis was increased spending on the military. Trajan expanded Rome to its zenith. That meant you needed more troops and more money to keep them on line.

A bigger empire meant more commitment. After the end of the Cold War the US was now almost everywhere. And the war on terror after 9/11 made the US to be fighting so many wars at once whic leads to over reach. The reason why the military and many American diplomats didn’t want war with Iran is that it would further bog the US down in the Mideast and give China a major opening in Asia. The US spent 2.5 trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan alone for almost 20 years of war. And got nothing out of it. This is why Obama did the deal because he knew unlike the delusional neoconservatives that America cannot fight three bloody wars in the Mideast, confront China in Asia, confront Russia in Europe and confront North Korea at the same time. The US military is already overstretched. And Obama and his advisers knew in the long run that China is a bigger threat to the US than the Taliban.
Plus with the massive debt the US has along with the massive tax cuts with increasing US defense spending is going to bankrupt the country in the long run. However Trump could accelerate it with war with Iran. And like Valerian who went to war with the Sassanid Persian empire it could end disastrously for him and America. And this time there will be no Auerlian to save the empire and bring it together again.

Yeah, needless wars etc. because Rome really HAD TO HAVE Dacia and the other random ass places beyond the Rhine or Danube that meant dikk economically or politically. Perhaps the US can just slowly collapse and rebound like the UK, France, etc. Who knows?

 

[FAH1223]

@FAH1223 India is still going to buy Iranina oil. The trump administration plan is failing to isolate iran. All they are doing is isolating themselves.
India will continue to buy Iran's oil: Iranian foreign minister | Reuters

Trump administration is delusional. India was never going to cut their oil imports to zero just because the US says so. Their foreign minister says they only recognize UNSC sanctions and those who were lifted Inn January 2016. Also, there are federal elections in India soon as well.

I know @FAH1223 thinks war with Iran isn't going to happen but leading up to these midterms and depending on their aftermath I think anything goes. We aren't dealing with normal people and normal calculations anymore.

The issue is there a lot of Bush era neocons running the show. And they don’t operate in reality.

 

[ZoeGod]

I know @FAH1223 thinks war with Iran isn't going to happen but leading up to these midterms and depending on their aftermath I think anything goes. We aren't dealing with normal people and normal calculations anymore.

I did predict the day after the election that Trump will start a war with Iran which would be America’s Rocroi.

Well the second sanctions is going to come to place in November and will hit Iran hard. Everything depends on the EU. The problem is that European companies are closing shop in Iran. The threat of being closed out of the US market is enough to scare the European businesses. The EU can’t force these companies to do buisness with Iran.

Bolton and Pompeo want a confrontation with Iran. And with rumors that Mattis is on his way out war is likely. My prediction is that the Europeans fail to keep convince to stay in the deal Iran will withdraw from the deal early next year and restart their nuclear program. The Iranians want economic benefits and when those second sanctions hit it will hard to convince them to stay in the deal. Which means we could be at war with Iran by spring or summer 2019. The plan is to use maximum pressure to have Iran leave the nuclear deal and have them restart their program to have an excuse to bomb Iran. Bolton wants his war but likely they say becreful what you wish for.

 

[FAH1223]

U.S. Responds To Court Order By Canceling Treaty That Gave The Court Jurisdiction