Iran Nuclear Deal: USA remains out under Biden after failed 2022 JCPOA talks; Russia and Iran collaborating on nuclear items

radio rahiem

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The EU will fold. Trump will sanction European banks and business that invest into Iran. Then these buisness will say fukk it because they do not want to be outside the US market. So they will divest from Iran. The EU is useless it’s a confederation and the member states can’t even agree how to take on Russia. So they will simply be fuming in the background. The EU is a US vassal state. They do not have the balls to take on Trump.

So what will happen next? European investment dissipates. Iran is frustrated. China and Russia fill the void. Iran backs out the JPCOA because they see little economic benefit. And possibly withdraw from the NPT. They restart their nuclear program and then war will come.
 

ZoeGod

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We will see what happens in 6-10 months from now when the US uses secondary sanctions against European businesses and banks. They will not want to be out the US market for a long period of time. The EU is weak and are basically vassal states of the US. It’s all on the Europeans now. If they fail to protect their buisnesses then they will divest from Iran. Which will lead to Iran restarting their nuclear program and potentially a bloody US war with Iran. We are the perfect storm for a war with Iran that will be America’s Suez moment. A moment that will end America sole dominance of the world stage.
 

BillBanneker

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The neocons want Iran to surrender, force regime change, and submit itself to the US hegemony like the Gulf States basically are.

:russ: So basically some pie in the sky shyt, thanks. It's really disturbing that media talking heads can basically say that (the JCPOA was a bad deal:damn:) without any detail.
 

BillBanneker

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We will see what happens in 6-10 months from now when the US uses secondary sanctions against European businesses and banks. They will not want to be out the US market for a long period of time. The EU is weak and are basically vassal states of the US. It’s all on the Europeans now. If they fail to protect their buisnesses then they will divest from Iran. Which will lead to Iran restarting their nuclear program and potentially a bloody US war with Iran. We are the perfect storm for a war with Iran that will be America’s Suez moment. A moment that will end America sole dominance of the world stage.


Wouldn't this go both ways though? I imagine american businesses and consumers that use and engage with euro banks and businesses will be hurt a great deal from this as well. The trump admin seems to be big on yelling threats they don't go through with if it affects americans.
 

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pretty sure this one of the people I always see the pro Assad/Iran folks sharing


:ehh:
 

Bawon Samedi

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EU moves to block US sanctions on Iran
EU moves to block US sanctions on Iran

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Jean Claude Juncker said the EU has a duty to protect European companies [Stoyan Nenov/Reuters]

The European Commission will launch the process of activating a law that bans European companies and courts from complying with US sanctions against Iran after Washington pulled out of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal.

Jean Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, said on Thursday the commission has a "duty to protect European companies" from American sanctions.

"We now need to act, and this is why we are launching the process to activate the 'blocking statute' from 1996. We will do that tomorrow [Friday] morning at 10:30," he told a news conference in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia, after a meeting of European Union leaders.

The EU wants to salvage the nuclear deal, and its blocking statute is the most powerful tool at its immediate disposal, as it means EU companies won't have to comply with US sanctions.

It also does not recognise any court rulings that enforce American penalties.

WATCH: Iran will not compromise on self-defence capability (2:55)

Juncker's announcement comes after US President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the international deal with Iran, which placed limits on Tehran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

The UK, France, Germany, China and Russia were signatories of the 2015 pact and have opposed the US pullout.

But companies around the world now face a difficult choice as Washington has threatened to punish firms that violate US sanctions by dealing with Iran.

Hassan Rouhani, Iran's president, said Tehran would remain committed to the deal, provided the deal's remaining signatories ensure Iran was protected from sanctions.

Blocking statute
Al Jazeera's Paul Brennan, reporting from Sofia, said EU leaders showed unity at summit by pledging to stick by the Iran accord. "But they know their options are limited", he said.

The blocking statute – a regulation created in 1996 to get around Washington's trade embargo on Cuba – was "outdated", Brennan said.

"The 1996 law was used to defend European businesses from US penalties for dealing with Cuba. But the US Congress has since passed new laws that make the EU statute outdated, such as threats to cut off companies' access to the US banking system," he said.

"The blocking mechanism will help small businesses that do not deal with the US, but the big multi-national companies, like Total and Maersk, are dealing in dollars and that means they will be subject to US sanctions if they continue to trade with Iran," he said.

Earlier in the day, Valdis Dombrovskis, financial services commissioner, told European parliament that using the blocking statute to ban banks from following the US sanctions would be of limited use, given the global reach of finance.

"The EU blocking regulation could be of limited effectiveness there, given the international nature of banking system and especially the exposure of large systemic banks to US financial system and US dollar transactions," he said.

Nervous companies
Several European countries have quit business with Iran following the US exit.

Danish shipping giant Maersk Tankers also said Thursday it would cease its activities in Iran, while German insurer Allianz announced plans to wind down its business deals there.

Italian steel manufacturer Danieli announced it has halted work on finding financial coverage for orders it won in Iran worth 1.5 billion euros ($1.8bn).

The French energy giant, Total, warned on Wednesday it would pull out of a multibillion-dollar project to develop the vast South Pars gas field, which started in July 2017, unless it is granted a waiver by US authorities.

That led Bijan Zangeneh, Iran's oil minister, to announce that Chinese state-owned oil company CNPC was ready to replace Total if it withdraws.

Separately, a British consortium, Pergas International, signed a preliminary deal with National Iranian South Oil Co to develop the Karanj oil field late on Wednesday, according to Iranian state TV.

The agreement is the first between Iran and a European company since the US exit from the nuclear accord.

Meanwhile, Russia moved to extend its economic influence in Iran.

In the Kazakh capital, Astana, the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union trade bloc signed an interim trade deal with Iran that lowers tariffs on hundreds of goods.

The bloc, which also comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, plans to begin three years of talks with Iran that aim to create a free trade zone.

'Oil at $100 a barrel'
Total's CEO said on Thursday he wouldn't be surprised to see the price of a barrel of crude reach $100 later this year because of international political disputes.

"We are in a new world. We are in a world where geopolitics are dominating the market again," Patrick Pouyanne said at an event at a Washington think-tank.

Market ripples from Venezuela's economic distress and Trump's decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal have oil prices surging. On Thursday, a barrel of North Sea Brent briefly passed $80 for the first time since November 2014.

"You have the announcement on Iran, which is pushing the price up," said Pouyanne. "So I wouldn't be surprised to see $100 per barrel in the coming months."
 

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EU considers Iran central bank transfers to beat U.S. sanctions

EU considers Iran central bank transfers to beat U.S. sanctions
Robin Emmott

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission is proposing that EU governments make direct money transfers to Iran’s central bank to avoid U.S. penalties, an EU official said, in what would be the most forthright challenge to Washington’s newly reimposed sanctions.

The step, which would seek to bypass the U.S. financial system, would allow European companies to repay Iran for oil exports and repatriate Iranian funds in Europe, a senior EU official said, although the details were still to be worked out.

The European Union, once Iran’s biggest oil importer, is determined to save the nuclear accord, that U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned on May 8, by keeping money flowing to Tehran as long as the Islamic Republic complies with the 2015 deal to prevent it from developing an atomic weapon.

“Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has proposed this to member states. We now need to work out how we can facilitate oil payments and repatriate Iranian funds in the European Union to Iran’s central bank,” said the EU official, who is directly involved in the discussions.

The U.S. Treasury announced on Tuesday more sanctions on officials of the Iranian central bank, including Governor Valiollah Seif,. But the EU official said the bloc believes that does not sanction the central bank itself.
 

DrBanneker

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The neocons want Iran to surrender, force regime change, and submit itself to the US hegemony like the Gulf States basically are.

Yeah but let's be real. They are desperate and time is running out. Sanctions will never be comprehensive again and that colored revolution/Arab Spring style uprising has not worked in the Gulf or in Iran. The urban educated elites hate the mullahs but their power bases in the business and rural sphere are intact. I don't see a full scale war but some real dirty crap may go down.
 

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This is how EU plans to keep the deal:

Italian steel manufacturer Danielicancelled it's Iranian orders

Denmark's Maersk Tankers ends Iran shipping

German Siemens CEO says he can't accept new Iranian orders

I told you the Europeans would fold. War is coming. Trump is going to foolishly lead America into a disastrous adventure through his own doing.

Russian and Chinese companies are filling some of those voids though. If the EU, which imports 5% of its oil from Iran, buckles under too much pressure, these exports will be relocated to Asian customers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea.

On the military front, nothing will prevent Russia from supplying Iran with S-400 missile systems or China with its “carrier-killers.”
 

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The other art of the deal, Tehran-style
Iran hosted the International Conference in Support of the Palestinian Intifada and poured cold water on Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal
By PEPE ESCOBAR MAY 18, 2018 6:15 PM (UTC+8)
Iran-960x576.jpg

Two men bargain over the price of a carpet in a bazaar in Iran, but would Donald Trump cut a better deal? Photo: AFP/Atta Kenare

The art of the deal, when practiced for 2,500 years, does lead to the palace of wisdom. I had hardly set foot in Tehran when a diplomat broke the news: “Trump? We’re not worried. He’s a bazaari (merchant trader)” – implying a political compromise will eventually be reached.

The Iranian government’s response to the Trump administration boils down to a Sun Tzu variant; silence – especially after the Fall of Flynn, who had “put Iran on notice” after a ballistic missile test that did not infringe the provisions of the Iranian nuclear deal, and the idea of an anti-Iran, Saudi Arabia-UAE-Egypt-Jordan mini-NATO. The Iranian naval drills – from the Strait of Hormuz to the Indian Ocean – had been planned way in advance.

I was in Tehran as part of a small group of foreign analysts, guests of the Majlis (Parliament) for the 6th International Conference in Support of the Palestinian Intifada. No one in Trump’s circle would be caught dead in such a gathering – featuring parliamentary delegates from more than 50 nations, a de facto mini-UN. Yet what they missed at the impressive opening in a crowded, round conference hall was the center of power in Iran on display; Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani and Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani.

Khamenei admitted “the existing crises in every part of the region and the Islamic ummah deserve attention,” while reinforcing the key issue is Palestine. Hence the conference could become “a model for all Muslims and regional nations to gradually harness their differences by relying on their common points.” The Wahhabi House of Saud, incidentally, was nowhere to be seen.

Khamenei’s was a necessary call for Muslim unity. Few in the West know that during the 1940s and ’50s, as decolonization proceeded apace, Islam was not trespassed by vicious Sunni-Shi’ite hatred – it was later fomented by the Wahhabi/Salafi-jihadi axis.

Hefty discussions with Iranian analysts and diplomats revolved on the efficacy of multilateral talking compared to advancing facts on the ground – ranging from the building of new settlements in the West Bank to the now all but dead and buried Oslo two-state myth.

On Palestine, Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabi Berri offered a gloomy assessment of the three solutions now available; suicide; giving in; or running away from what’s left of Palestinian land. Later on down the hall I asked the deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah, the affable Naim Qassem, about the Trump administration’s hint of a one-state solution. His answer, in French: “One state means war. Two states means peace under their conditions, which will conduct us to war.”

The road to post-Enlightenment
As with most conferences, what matters are the bilaterals. Leonid Savin re-confirmed Russian airspace is now all but sealed with multiple deployments of the S-500 missile defense system against anything the US may unleash. Albanian historian Olsi Jazexhi deconstructed the new Balkans powder keg. Muhammad Gul, son of the late, larger-than-life General Hamid Gul, detailed the finer points of Pakistan’s foreign policy and the drive to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Blake Archer Williams, otherwise known as Arash Darya-Bandari, whose pseudonym celebrates the “tyger tyger burning bright” English master, gave me a copy of Creedal Foundations of Waliyic Islam (Lion of Najaf Publishers) – a sophisticated analysis of how Shi’ite theology led to the theory of velayat-e faqih (the ruling of the jurisprudent) at the heart of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I’m considering sending the book to voracious reader Steve Bannon.

Pyongyang was also in the house. The North Korean delegate had produced an astonishing speech, essentially arguing that Palestine should follow their example, complete with a “credible nuclear deterrent.” Later on in the corridors I saluted the delegation, and they saluted back. No chance of a bilateral though to expand on the unclear points surrounding Kim Jong-nam’s assassination.

Every time I’m back in Tehran I’m impressed with the open avenues for serious intellectual discussion. Once again Tehran proved to be unrivaled all across Asia as a theater to debate all crosscurrents involving post or counter-Enlightenment, or both.

I was constantly reminded of Jalal Al-e Ahmad, the son of a mullah born in poor south Tehran who later translated Sartre and Camus and wrote the seminal Westoxification (1962).

He spent the summer of 1965 at a seminar in Harvard organized by Henry Kissinger and “supported” by the CIA, and pivoted to Shi’ism only by the end of his life. But it was his analysis that paved the way for sociologist Ali Shariati to cross-pollinate anti-colonialism with the Shi’ite concept of resistance against injustice into a revolutionary ideology capable of politicizing the Iranian middle classes, leading to the Islamic Revolution.

That was the background for very serious discussions on how Iran (resistance against injustice), China (remixed Confucianism) and Russia (Eurasianism) are offering post-enlightenment alternatives that transcend Western liberal democracy – a concept rendered meaningless by neoliberalism’s hegemony.

But in the end it was all inevitably down to the overarching anti-intellectual ghost in the room; Donald Trump, and that was even before he got a letter from Ahmadinejad.

So I did what I usually do before leaving Tehran; I hit the bazaar, via a fabulous attached mosque – to get reacquainted with the art of the deal, the Persian way.

That led me to Mahmoud Asgari, lodged in the Sameyi passage of the Tajrish bazaar and a serious discussion on the finer points of pre-WWI Sistan-Baluchistan tribal rugs from Zahedan. The end result was – what else – a win-win deal, bypassing the US dollar. And then, the clincher: “When you call your friend Trump, tell him to come here and I’ll give him the best deal.” Steve Bannon, your call.
 
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