Iowa: Pump Up The Caucus

[mc_brew]

iowa, first state in play... get your booty to the caucus now, make my day.....

trump watch 2024 is now in full effect..... we will be watching the caucus returns from iowa on 1/15/2024..... who will be the runner up....? desantis or haley...? who will be the top vp candidate for trump......?

here are the current polls....
trump - 51.3%
desantis - 17.2%
haley - 15.8%
ramaswamy - 7.1%
christie - 3.4%

A Weak Night for Trump? A DeSantis Flop? We Game Out Iowa.

A win isn’t always win in the Iowa caucuses. In the final days, the candidates are scrambling to beat each other — and expectations.

www.nytimes.com

edit: results below

Last Table... there are more but it's 95%.

Donald J. Trump	53,701	50.97%​
Ron DeSantis	22,437	21.30%​
Nikki Haley	20,093	19.07%​
Vivek Ramaswamy	8,093	7.68%​
Ryan Binkley	734	0.70%​
Asa Hutchinson	188	0.18%​
Chris Christie	32	0.03%​
Other	80	0.08%​

h/t to @MushroomX

 

[MushroomX]

Alright.

1. Trump
2. Haley - I think Haley vs. DeSantis, Haley takes more
3. DeSantis
4. Christie
5. Ramaswamy

 

[mc_brew]

the polls open in a few hours and we will see the first state throw its support behind a candidate.....

imo, trump takes this one with ease.... i'm betting 50+ percentage points......

 

[Reality Check]

I'm curious how much the weather plays a roll in turnout. I don't think he wins by that much, but I'm guessing it'll in in the 20-30 point range.

 

[Hood Critic]

Dotard takes Iowa in +30.

Meatball goes back to FL to cry himself to sleep in 2nd.

Nimrata in 3rd is the real winner, she gets a boost.

VivekGPT is going to formally announce his podcast.

 

[Wild self]

TLR's savior gonna take the day.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Dotard takes Iowa in +30.

Meatball goes back to FL to cry himself to sleep in 2nd.

Nimrata in 3rd is the real winner, she gets a boost.

VivekGPT is going to formally announce his podcast.

Coming in third is not a "win" for her, as bad as Desantis has been doing it's not a good look for her if she's still behind him.

One of the two needs to break out and consistently get 2nd, and that's probably not going to be Desantis because his base is Trump's base. If they just keep switching around in 2nd/3rd place, then they're both going to look weak.


Although it would be really funny if Haley pulls ahead and Desantis starts finishing 3rd everywhere, then Trump has to pull out late in the primaries and Desantis suddenly starts beating Haley in all the states but too little too late. I don't even know what the Republicans would do at that point.

 

[Hood Critic]

Coming in third is not a "win" for her, as bad as Desantis has been doing it's not a good look for her if she's still behind him.

One of the two needs to break out and consistently get 2nd, and that's probably not going to be Desantis because his base is Trump's base. If they just keep switching around in 2nd/3rd place, then they're both going to look weak.


Although it would be really funny if Haley pulls ahead and Desantis starts finishing 3rd everywhere, then Trump has to pull out late in the primaries and Desantis suddenly starts beating Haley in all the states but too little too late. I don't even know what the Republicans would do at that point.

It's a win because she inherits #2 everywhere else because Desantis is almost certainly going to fold his campaign by Feb to salvage what little political capital he has "to fight another day".

 

[Professor Emeritus]

It's a win because she inherits #2 everywhere else because Desantis is almost certainly going to fold his campaign by Feb to salvage what little political capital he has "to fight another day".

Desantis is still banking on Trump having a heart attack or getting disqualified somehow. I'm SURE he thinks he can beat Haley if he has Trump's voters.

But you're right that it'll be a struggle with his campaign and image running on fumes.....I think if he squeezes out 2nd place finishes in Iowa and Nevada, he stays in. Then he just needs to beat Haley in Michigan and I think he'd have to stay in for Super Tuesday at that point.

 

[Hood Critic]

 

[Hood Critic]

Desantis is still banking on Trump having a heart attack or getting disqualified somehow. I'm SURE he thinks he can beat Haley if he has Trump's voters.

But you're right that it'll be a struggle with his campaign and image running on fumes.....I think if he squeezes out 2nd place finishes in Iowa and Nevada, he stays in. Then he just needs to beat Haley in Michigan and I think he'd have to stay in for Super Tuesday at that point.

Vivek is actually polling higher than Desantis in NH. The path just gets weaker for Desantis because he can't close the deal with R's who don't want to vote for Trump. He's the #2 pick for most of if not all of Haley and Vivek's supporters. The longer they outlast him, he doesn't have a shot at taking the nomination since a portion of his support has been shifted to Haley.

 

[RageKage]

Meatball wins first major awards of Iowa caucas

https://www.meidastouch.com/news/desantis-hilariously-trolled-in-iowa-with-participation-trophy

DeSantis Hilariously Trolled in Iowa with Participation Trophy​

 

[the next guy]

let's go

 

[MushroomX]

I wonder how the turnout will be compared to 2020; less Republicans because of Red Covid, and Arctic Snaps.

 

[Ku$h Parker]