OfTheCross
Veteran
The sky isn't falling 
US inflation: Set for take-off? | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
Overall, our estimates imply median CPI inflation rising to about 2.5–3.0% by 2023. PCE inflation, on which the Federal Reserve focuses, and which has averaged about 0.2 percentage points below CPI inflation over the past decade due to methodological differences, would reach 2.3–2.8% on a median basis. Inflation of the PCE excluding food and energy, which has averaged below median PCE inflation by about 0.5 percentage points reflecting disinflationary relative price changes, could, if these persist, be in the 1.8–2.3% range. Such outcomes would be broadly consistent with the Fed’s average inflation targeting strategy with inflation modestly overshooting its long-term level following a number of years of undershooting it.
US inflation: Set for take-off? | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
Overall, our estimates imply median CPI inflation rising to about 2.5–3.0% by 2023. PCE inflation, on which the Federal Reserve focuses, and which has averaged about 0.2 percentage points below CPI inflation over the past decade due to methodological differences, would reach 2.3–2.8% on a median basis. Inflation of the PCE excluding food and energy, which has averaged below median PCE inflation by about 0.5 percentage points reflecting disinflationary relative price changes, could, if these persist, be in the 1.8–2.3% range. Such outcomes would be broadly consistent with the Fed’s average inflation targeting strategy with inflation modestly overshooting its long-term level following a number of years of undershooting it.
