Less conflict with West means New Delhi likely to triumph over Beijing
asia.nikkei.com
China and India battle for leadership of Global South
Less conflict with West means New Delhi likely to triumph over Beijing
TOKYO -- Countries of the Global South are in the spotlight amid deepening political confrontation between the West and the China-Russia camp.
In many cases, these countries -- both emerging and developing -- side with neither and have chosen a different path, significantly affecting global power dynamics.
When it comes to influencing the Global South, China seems to hold the edge. In early March, Beijing mediated reconciliation between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in a move felt around the world.
China also seems to be attempting to broker a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, with Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia in March possibly signaling the start of this effort.
Beijing has long sought to strengthen its global influence by using developing countries as a steppingstone.
A United Nations bloc called the Group of 77, or G-77, was inaugurated in 1964 by 77 developing countries in Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. It currently has over 130 members.
According to a U.N. diplomatic source, China repeatedly holds meetings under a framework of "the G-77 plus China" and urges solidarity.
Each time the U.N. votes on a resolution criticizing Russia over the Ukraine conflict, many developing countries abstain in what a diplomatic source said is not unrelated to Beijing's leverage.
Furthermore, China has expanded its influence by providing huge financial support for infrastructure development in Asia and Africa under the Belt and Road Initiative, Xi's flagship project, since the 2010s.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the opening ceremony for the second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on April 26, 2019. © Reuters
But China is now facing headwinds as the BRI has left Sri Lanka and some African countries struggling with huge debts, sowing the seeds of trouble. Infrastructure development projects in BRI partner countries have also been derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Under these circumstances, what is interesting is India. New Delhi views itself as more qualified to lead the Global South than richer China. Also, India holds the rotating presidency of the Group of 20 major economies this year and has not been shy about letting the world know this.
The Raisina Dialogue, a conference of dignitaries and experts from Asia and Western nations that examines international issues, was held in New Delhi in March. During open and closed discussions, Indian dignitaries repeatedly asserted the following:
(1) Due to the fallout from the Ukraine war, developing countries that are not directly related to it are struggling with excessive debt, food and energy crises, and poverty.
(2) The West should not only support Ukraine militarily but also deal with crises facing developing countries.
(3) As the G-20 chair, India will help focus the West's attention on developing countries and pave the way for solutions to their problems.
Prior to the Raisina Dialogue, the Indian government in January hosted its online Voice of Global South Summit. Although the country invited more than 120 countries, China was not among the invitees. According to an Indian official, "That's because as the G-20 chair [our role] ... was to listen to the voices of other developing countries."
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, at the opening session of the Voice of Global South Summit 2023 on Jan. 12. The summit is to ensure that concerns of developing countries are not ignored by the G-20 industrial nations. (Photo courtesy of Prime Minister's Office of India)
It is clear that the Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to compete with China to become leader of the Global South. According to government foreign policy experts, Modi has his own strategy.
During the run-up to the G-20 summit on Sept. 9-10, India will hold discussions on excessive debt, food, energy and other pressing issues. After that, India will coordinate with the U.S., Europe and Japan to propose solutions during the two-day leaders' meeting. According to the strategy, these moves will show India as a leading voice on behalf of developing countries.
India has so far lost ground to China on the diplomatic front.
As China's infrastructure investments poured into India's neighbors including Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh, New Delhi's foreign policy experts said that "India was being encircled geopolitically."
Taking advantage of the BRI losing steam, India is poised to launch a diplomatic counteroffensive against China.
Shivshankar Menon, a former Indian national security adviser, said that "China has exacerbated the debt problems of developing countries," while the West is stuck in a war in Ukraine. "Now is an opportune time for India to take the lead in addressing global challenges," he said.
Who will win the fight for leadership of the Global South, China or India?
In terms of economic power, it is clear that China has the advantage. India's 2022 nominal gross domestic product was about one-sixth that of China's. Although India's population is estimated to have overtaken China's, there is a wide power gap.
Still, India has the upper hand for two reasons.
First, it is India -- not China -- that can closely coordinate with the West on behalf of the Global South. India, Japan, the U.S. and Australia are united under the so-called Quad framework. India also enjoys good relations with Europe. In contrast, China is locked in a quasi-Cold War with the U.S., making it difficult to mediate between the West and developing countries.
Second, trouble is brewing between China and the Global South. In addition to debt issues with a number of developing countries, China is at loggerheads with some Southeast Asian nations over territorial rights in the South China Sea.
According to a diplomatic source, the administration of U.S. of President Joe Biden has recently refrained from pressing India to go along with sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. This is because Washington thinks India can better serve as a bridge between the U.S. and the Global South if New Delhi stays neutral.
It would better the world if democratic India can deepen its influence with developing countries. As Japan holds the rotating presidency of the Group of Seven industrialized nations this year, it is hoped that India and Japan, as the G-20 and G-7 chairs, will strengthen their partnership and pave the way for cooperation with developing countries.