In D.C. mayor poll, Muriel Bowser surges against wounded incumbent Vincent Gray

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In D.C. mayor poll, Muriel Bowser surges against wounded incumbent Vincent Gray
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...fdf990-b36e-11e3-b899-20667de76985_story.html

A once-fractious primary battle for the District mayoralty has narrowed into a two-person race between incumbent Vincent C. Gray and D.C. Council member Muriel Bowser, who are in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Bowser (Ward 4) has surged to gain the support of 30 percent of likely voters, more than doubling her support since the last Post survey in early January. Gray’s support is unchanged at 27 percent, showing steadiness but no growth in the wake of new corruption allegations from federal prosecutors.

A look at the Democratic candidates’ views on some of the most pressing issues facing Washington.

Since Vincent Gray won the 2010 Democratic primary by 13,124 votes, more than 80,000 new Democrats have registered in the District.

The candidates



The new polling indicates that, across a wide field of eight candidates, Bowser is now best positioned to capitalize on concerns about Gray’s honesty. Bowser’s surge offers more evidence that the electorate sees little connection between the city’s chief executive and its economic boom; by a two-to-one margin, voters say the city is on the right track, according to the poll.

If voters elect Bowser, they would be voting out a one-term mayor for the second election in a row.

“It’s my opinion that the city has evolved so much in the last 20 years, our success is not dictated on who the mayor is,” said Jerry Crute, a 46-year-old Capitol Hill resident. “I believe, quite frankly, that most of the candidates would do an excellent job.”

But Crute, who works in accounting and finance, said the federal investigation has disqualified Gray, and he is now choosing between Bowser and fellow Council member Tommy Wells (Ward 6).

Walking into the voting booth, he said, “will be a true gut-check moment: Who do I truly believe can beat Gray? That will pretty much be it.”

Gray retains path to victory

Gray, however, retains a path to victory, albeit a narrowing one, according to the poll.

A core group of voters remains determined to turn out for him — unlike Bowser, who has attracted support from a more persuadable and uncertain slice of the electorate.

And there are signs that fewer voters than usual will turn out for next Tuesday’s election, which could benefit Gray and his more dedicated voter base. Fifty-four percent of registered Democrats surveyed say they are certain to vote, a figure that lags behind previous mayoral primaries by roughly 10 points. Even those are optimistic self-assessments, as only 40 percent of registered Democrats cast ballots in 2010. The poll classified 36 percent as likely voters in the current contest.

The poll finds that, during a period in which prosecutors levied new accusations that the mayor knew about an illegal, off-the-books effort to elect him in 2010, public opinion has continued to turn against him.

Roughly six in 10 believe allegations aired in federal court earlier this month by businessman and campaign financier Jeffrey E. Thompson that Gray knew about the secret campaign. And three-quarters of likely Democratic voters overall say Gray has been investigated fairly.

The mayor’s job approval rating, which was 53 percent positive to 39 percent negative among registered voters in January, is now evenly split — matching former mayor Adrian M. Fenty’s numbers before his primary loss to Gray four years ago. In addition, slightly more voters now cite ethics as their top issue, and more than six in 10 voters say Gray is not “honest and trustworthy.” Nearly half say the scandal will be a major factor in their vote, and more than a third say Gray did something illegal.

Two-thirds of Gray’s supporters say they will definitely vote for him. For Bowser, whose supporters are less loyal and in many cases have only recently turned their attention to her, only 44 percent say the same.

Marvin Lee Battle Sr., a 75-year-old Congress Heights resident and retired postal worker, said he is determined to vote for Gray and will urge members of his family to join him. He cited the federal investigation into the embattled mayor’s 2010 campaign as one reason for his strong support.

“If you’ve been in D.C. for a while, you know what happened to Marion Barry,” said Battle, referring to the former mayor’s 1990 prosecution on drug charges. “They’re doing the same thing to Gray. I’m really not supporting Gray so much as I disagree with what the government is doing.”

He added, “They’ve been investigating this man for three years, and all of a sudden come election time, they come with out all this? . . . It’s not fair.”

That sentiment is more common in parts of the city where Gray’s support is strongest — notably his home turf, Ward 7.
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Bowser has room to grow

Should Gray prevail, his political future would by no means be assured. Most years, winning the primary in heavily Democratic Washington is tantamount to winning the mayoralty. But this month, Council member David A. Catania (I-At Large) has launched an independent mayoral campaign to challenge the Democratic nominee in the fall general election.

As in January, Gray continues to run even with Catania, at 41 percent apiece among all registered voters — potentially setting the city up for its most competitive general election ever.

But should Bowser prevail, Catania’s fortunes would reverse. Bowser leads Catania by more than 30 percentage points — 56 percent to 23 percent, suggesting that Democrats will be much less willing to look past their party’s nominee if it isn’t Gray.

Still, some Democrats, such as Bill Bortz, a 69-year-old federal retiree living in Adams Morgan, said they’d be willing to give the former Republican a chance.

“I’m comforted by this idea that I’ll get another shot at the apple later,” he said. “If I have regrets or hear something about Bowser that makes me unhappy, I’ll vote for David Catania.”

The poll indicates that Bowser has more room to grow. Asked whom they prefer as their second choice, 22 percent of likely voters pick Bowser, while only 7 percent choose Gray. And nearly half (48 percent) of likely voters say there is a chance they could change their minds — far more uncertainty than four years ago at an earlier stage. Among those who say they could change their minds, more say Bowser is their second choice (24 percent) than Gray (10 percent).

Much of Bowser’s new support comes from voters who were previously undecided — and much comes from those who previously supported Council member Jack Evans (D-Ward 2), who has lost more support since January than any other candidate, according to the poll.

Bowser has gained more among likely white voters (22 percentage points from January) than likely black voters (12 points), joining Wells as a favorite among whites and running a strong second to Gray among African Americans. Gray leads Bowser 40 to 27 percent among black voters, while Wells and Evans stand at 2 and 4 percent, respectively.

And she is the biggest beneficiary of the split among black voters when it comes to Gray’s honesty. Among the 41 percent of African Americans who see Gray as honest, he wins about three-quarters of the vote, but Bowser wins nearly half of those who do not.

Yari Lorenzo, a 39-year-old Takoma resident, said she is most attracted to an outsider candidate, restaurateur Andy Shallal, and would vote for him if Gray weren’t on the ballot.

“But I’m voting for Muriel Bowser,” the homemaker said, saying she felt Bowser had the better chance to unseat Gray. “It sounds awful, but it comes down to that.”

Stephanie Ortoleva, a Dupont Circle lawyer, said she is not inclined to support Gray based on his handling of the investigation as well as stances that she said were “too pro-business.”

She said she was impressed by Wells’s record and platform but “ultimately decided for strategic reasons” to back Bowser.

Support for Evans has fallen off

None of Gray’s six other challengers have seen their support grow appreciably, according to the poll.

Wells showed a slight but statistically insignificant uptick, from 12 to 14 percent. A campaign message focused on ethics and good government has not translated into broad support beyond those focused on those issues.

Support for Evans slipped from 13 percent to 6 percent, putting him in a dead heat for fourth place with Shallal, a first-time candidate. No other candidate shows support above 3 percent.

Evans may have been harmed by his refusal to take a hard line on the corruption allegations facing Gray: In January, 17 percent of those who doubted Gray’s honesty backed Evans. During a period in which, in forums and other public appearances, Evans has repeatedly praised Gray’s leadership and declined to make an issue of the investigation, that number declined to 9 percent. Voters who say the investigation is a major factor in their choice are no more likely to back Evans than Gray.

The Post survey reached 1,402 D.C. adults between March 20 and 23 on both land-line and mobile telephones. Of those, 863 are registered Democratic voters and 391 are likely voters in the April 1 primary. The margin of error for the former group is 4.5 percentage points; for the latter group, it is 6.5 points.
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