Elon Musk is staking Tesla’s very future on..

[RageKage]

on his Oct. 10 robotaxi unveil!​

Robotaxis..awesome..lol

Elon Musk is staking Tesla’s very future on his Oct. 10 robotaxi unveil

'This will be one for the history books,' says Musk, as he transforms his carmaker into an AI and robotics company.

www.yahoo.com

When Elon Musk unveils Tesla’s robotaxi concept car on Oct. 10 in Los Angeles, it will be the first new product reveal since his prototype Optimus robot two years ago.

In a sign of just how grand the scale should be, he’s reportedly rented out the full Warner Bros. studio lot outside Hollywood. The stakes couldn’t be higher, with Wedbush Securities tech analyst Dan Ives calling the event nothing short of a “linchpin day for the Tesla story.”

While Musk notably tempered expectations going into the Optimus event, this time he’s setting the bar high right from the get-go. “This will be one for the history books,” he posted on Wednesday.


The Tesla CEO has boiled his investment case down to a binary bet on whether his team can crack the code for unsupervised full self-driving (FSD)—a technology so complex he’s likened it to a baby form of artificial general intelligence.

Anyone who doesn't believe should get out of the stock​

Currently his cars can already drive on their own using a sophisticated onboard computer trained on video data harvested from Teslas already on the road. But they may do the wrong thing at the worst time and require constant supervision, like a teenager with a learner’s permit. Eliminating this risk would be akin to Tesla’s very own ChatGPT moment, according to Musk.

This breakthrough would lead to what he has called the single biggest overnight increase in asset value history has ever seen as millions of existing Teslas across the U.S. could be taught to drive unsupervised on their own at the push of download button. Once activated, they could earn $30,000 in robotaxi fares every year for their owners while they eat, sleep or work—and that’s a figure Tesla cited in April 2019, so it would be closer to $37,000 in today’s dollars.

That’s why Musk recently had a message to any Tesla investors still skeptical about its autonomous driving ambitions — if this isn’t the stock for you, get out.

“Anyone who doesn’t believe that Tesla would solve vehicle autonomy […] should sell their Tesla stock,” he told shareholders in July. “If you believe Tesla will solve autonomy, you should buy Tesla stock.”

$5 trillion dollar market cap opportunity​

Musk estimates the technology is easily worth $5 trillion to investors, a sum that would make Tesla the most valuable company in the world by far.

Robotaxis would also begin shifting Tesla’s profits and losses from being dependent on the sale of cars to being more indicative of a software company: licensing out his FSD at high margins with predictable recurring revenue.

Will McDonough, chairman and CEO of asset manager Corestone Capital, argues this kind of subscription-based turnover is just what institutional investors like himself love.

“A car sale is a single moment in time,” he tells Fortune. “This is monthly revenue in perpetuity, and predictive cashflows is what Wall Street wants.”

 

[RageKage]

Competition for Uber and Lyft​

But Musk’s ambitions go further. What better car would there be for the job of ferrying passengers back and forth than one built strictly for that purpose? It wouldn’t even need a steering wheel or pedals. That’s the kind of visionary concept he will likely be presenting on Oct. 10.

Such a car could economically compete with an Uber without the hassle and cost of paying the driver. Just the mere mention of Musk’s robotaxi ride hailing plans in April sent shares in the market leader tumbling.

Brad Ferguson, president of Halter Ferguson Financial, says research by his firm has shown the rideshare market is underserved in the U.S., a gap Tesla can step into if if can narrow the 10-year lead of its competitors. He hopes the robotaxi reveal will raise awareness among customers and even companies interested in running fleets of Tesla robotaxis.

“There is a significant market opportunity for a new entrant to offer rides at scale at $2 per mile or less,” he tells Fortune. “People think of Uber and Lyft as for tourists, but we’ve found most of the ridership is local—they use rideshares to get to and from work.”

Sentiment on the rise​

One of the reasons so much is riding on the outcome of Oct. 10 is that optimism around the robotaxi event has helped build a floor in the stock, propping up a price that should in theory have tracked this year’s decline in profits.

Current estimates for next year’s earnings only foresee a return to 2023 levels around $3.12 a share, still well below its record $4.07 record from 2022. And yet the stock is roughly flat for the year so far, trading at more than 80 times next year’s consensus earnings per share. Nicholas Colas, cofounder of market analysis firm DataTrek, called it a “faith-based stock.”

Fortunately, the timing of the unveil is perfect.

Sentiment has been improving ever since the Federal Reserve lowered rates by a half percent and signalled more was to come. High borrowing costs have limited consumers' ability to afford the high monthly payments for a car loan. Moreover, next week’s quarterly vehicle sales data are expected to show the first increase over the previous year since 2023.

Some notable Tesla bulls like Future Fund managing partner Gary Black have warned the event will likely be just another buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact event if history is anything to go by. But Musk doesn’t seem to think so.

Roadster unveiling?​

This might also be because the Tesla CEO has something else up his sleeve. When he delayed the unveil by two months to make an important design change, he added it would also give the team time to “show off a few other things.”

This could include a second Tesla Roadster. Back in February he promised to unveil it before the year was out following what he called a radical redesign of the 2017 concept car. One aspect that supports this is the fact that Tesla has no current two-seater whose sales it could cannibalize. If the company does reveal it, there would be little risk customers would cancel the purchase of an existing model in favor of waiting for the Roadster.

The invite also has the words “We Robot.” That might indicate Musk could also show off the latest iteration of his Optimus prototype he believes will transform Tesla into an AI and robotics company first.

Tesla didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Corestone Capital’s McDonough could even imagine more news dropping, much like what investors expect at an Apple event, possibly with ties to other parts of Musk’s empire. Integration of his xAI chatbot Grok in Tesla vehicles is a widely speculated rumor. There’s so many possibilities given the breadth of Musk’s businesses.

“The ticker should be E-L-O-N, not T-S-L-A,” McDonough says, “because people are trying to own Elon Inc.”

 

[RageKage]

FYI, was going to say, I don't think even Elon is delusional enough to think this is the bet investors want to see or think its practical (its not) , likely another stunt to get it into the news when they have nothing else on horizon (that I am aware of) that will draw interest. Current tesla product lines has been described as 'dated' with no new major redesigns in a long while and the cybertuck being a meme vehicle.

 

[The Pledge]

 

[fact]

If this thread really trying to prop up this white supremacist piece of shyt that deserves to be put down like a dog?

 

[Diunx]

"The hassle of paying a driver"

The dream of these fukking CEOs is a complete AI/robot workforce.

Then they also come spend millions lobbying againts stuff line UBI, the world is going into a dark fukking place for most people.

 

[Hawaiian Punch]

 

[Robbie3000]

Another day, another con by the greatest conman in history.

 

[Windows 91]

They late, Google/Waymo already got this in operation. I can call a driverless ride to my house right now.

And Waymo was training those cars in this city for nearly a decade before they went fully driverless, but I should believe Elon got it right around the corner?

 

[RageKage]

If this thread really trying to prop up this white supremacist piece of shyt that deserves to be put down like a dog?

I realize sarcasm doesn't translate well always to internet

​

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Independent Testers Disturbed by Results When They Drive Tesla FSD for 1,000 Miles​

Independent Testers Disturbed by Results When They Drive Tesla FSD for 1,000 Miles

Benign Intervention A team of researchers at the independent firm AMCI Testing drove a Tesla in Full-Self Driving mode for over 1,000 miles, finding its capabilities to be "suspect" at best. In one case, the system even ran a red light. They walked away unconvinced that the system, although...

www.yahoo.com

Benign Intervention​

A team of researchers at the independent firm AMCI Testing drove a Tesla in Full-Self Driving mode for over 1,000 miles, finding its capabilities to be "suspect" at best — because of dangerous and unpredictable infractions like running a red light.

They walked away unconvinced that the system, although impressive in some respects, is ready to be fully autonomous — a rebuff to Tesla CEO Elon Musk's ambitions of launching a driverless robotaxi service.

According to the firm, its testers were forced to intervene over 75 times while Full Self-Driving was in control. On average, that's once every 13 miles. Given that the typical driver in the US travels about 35 to 40 miles per day, that's an alarmingly frequent rate of requiring human intervention.


"What's most disconcerting and unpredictable is that you may watch FSD successfully negotiate a specific scenario many times — often on the same stretch of road or intersection — only to have it inexplicably fail the next time," AMCI director Guy Mangiamele said in a statement.

Road Warrior​

As shown in three videos summing up the findings, Full Self-Driving did manage several types of scenarios admirably.

In one instance, in which a Tesla was driving down a tight, two-way road lined with parked cars, the vehicle cleverly pulled into a gap on the right hand side to allow oncoming traffic to pass.

But in an activity where safety should be paramount, Full Self-Driving needs to be next to flawless. It definitely was not that.

During a night drive in the city, the Tesla with the driving mode engaged straight-up ran a red light that was clearly visible, seemingly because it was following other motorists who also disregarded the light.

In another dangerous scenario, Full Self-Driving failed to either recognize or follow a double yellow line around a curve. The Tesla veered into oncoming traffic, and only avoided a potential collision after the driver intervened. (This is almost exactly what Musk experienced first-hand way back in 2015, and it's still an issue now.)

Taxi Truths​

Musk has teased the launch of a driverless robotaxi service, which would reportedly use a new vehicle that fans have nicknamed the "Cybercab." Yet if AMCI's testing is anything to go by, the company's autonomous driving tech may not be safe enough for the task.

It's unclear, though, how its safety record would stack up against the capabilities of competitors like Waymo, a veteran in the robotaxi industry.

But even with a human behind the wheel, Full Self-Driving poses significant risks, according to Mangiamele, because it "breeds a sense of awe that unavoidably leads to dangerous complacency."

"When drivers are operating with FSD engaged, driving with their hands in their laps or away from the steering wheel is incredibly dangerous," he added. "As you will see in the videos, the most critical moments of FSD miscalculation are split-second events that even professional drivers, operating with a test mindset, must focus on catching."

 

[RageKage]

They late, Google/Waymo already got this in operation. I can call a driverless ride to my house right now.

And Waymo was training those cars in this city for nearly a decade before they went fully driverless, but I should believe Elon got it right around the corner?

How well is that working out?

CCP can gamble and experiment on its people in real life, Tesla doesn't have that opportunity here.

 

[Windows 91]

How well is that working out?

CCP can gamble and experiment on its people in real life, Tesla doesn't have that opportunity here.

I was skeptical as hell until I actually rode in one. It's a really smooth experience overall and I use them exclusively for shorter rides that don't require the freeway.

They pull up and are locked until you unlock them on your phone, so no one can steal your ride. You can play music on your phone through the speakers and don't have to make awkward small talk with a driver (some of these drivers be talking crazy). They're all spotless inside, I've never had a dirty car.

They drive a bit slow though because they obey all posted speed limits and never go over. And they are really cautious around pedestrians so they can take a while to turn if there are lot of people in a crosswalk. Overall they feel lot safer than Uber and Lyft, but humans will get you to your destination faster.

 

[Apollo Creed]

They late, Google/Waymo already got this in operation. I can call a driverless ride to my house right now.

And Waymo was training those cars in this city for nearly a decade before they went fully driverless, but I should believe Elon got it right around the corner?

Do it and live stream for the coli

 

[chineebai]

Anything Elon says, take it with a grain of salt. Look at the cyber truck, it’s a death trap

 

[Robbie3000]

They late, Google/Waymo already got this in operation. I can call a driverless ride to my house right now.

And Waymo was training those cars in this city for nearly a decade before they went fully driverless, but I should believe Elon got it right around the corner?

Must could have taken this approach and made incremental progress. But nah, he would rather
Scam people with fake promises. Every single year since 2016, he has promised that FAD will be available next year.