Ecuador goes with conservative banker in presidential vote; Peru shifting leftward in its election

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QUITO, Ecuador (AP) — Voters in Ecuador appeared to turn to a conservative businessman in Sunday’s presidential runoff election, rebuffing a leftist movement that has held the presidency for over a decade marked by an economic boom and then a yearslong recession, while in neighboring Peru a crowded field of 18 candidates was virtually certain to result in a second round of presidential voting in June.

Voters in Ecuador and Peru cast ballots under strict public health measures because of the coronavirus pandemic, which has recently strengthened in both countries, prompting the return of lockdowns and heightening concerns over their already battered economies. Peruvians also were electing a new Congress.

The Electoral Council in Ecuador had not declared an official winner in the contest to replace President Lenín Moreno next month, but results released by the agency showed former banker Guillermo Lasso with about 53% of votes and leftist Andrés Arauz at 47%, with just over 90% of votes counted. Arauz had led the first round of voting with more than 30% on Feb. 7, while Lasso edged into the final by finishing about a half a percentage point ahead of environmentalist and Indigenous candidate Yaku Pérez.

Arauz was backed by former President Rafael Correa, a major force in the South American country despite a corruption conviction that sent him fleeing to Belgium beyond the reach of Ecuadoran prosecutors. Moreno was also an ally of Correa but turned against him while in office.

“Correa’s negatives outweighed the expectation of a new, unknown candidate who had no career and who did not campaign very well,” said Grace M. Jaramillo, an adjunct professor at the University of British Columbia whose research includes Latin America. “He did not speak for all audiences ... for the entire population, and he could not respond to human rights accusations of the Correista era.”

Correa governed from 2007 to 2017 as an ally of Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. He oversaw a period of economic growth driven by an oil boom and loans from China that allowed him to expand social programs, build roads and schools and pursue other projects.

But Correa increasingly cracked down on opponents, the press and businesses during his latter stage in office and feuded with Indigenous groups over development projects. Ecuador also hit an economic slowdown in 2015, largely driven by the drop in oil prices.

Lasso finished second in the previous two presidential contests. He favors free-market policies and Ecuador’s rapprochement with international organizations. During the campaign, he proposed raising the minimum wage to $500, finding ways to include more youth and women in the labor market and eliminating tariffs for agricultural equipment.

“For years, I have dreamed of the possibility of serving Ecuadorians so that the country progresses, so that we can all live better,” Lasso said before a room full of supporters despite social distancing guidelines. “Today, you have resolved that this be so.”

Accompanied by his wife, María de Lourdes Alcívar, Lasso said that from May 24 on he will dedicate himself “to the construction of a national project that continues to listen to everyone, because this project will be yours.”

Despite his declared conservative position on issues such as marriage equality, he promised to accept other points of view.

Elections officials did not plan to officially declare a winner Sunday, but at least one head of state congratulated Lasso on the election’s outcome. Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou tweeted that he had spoken with Lasso “to congratulate him on his success and to get to work together on the issues that our countries have in common.”

Ecuador is deep in a recession that many fear will worsen as lockdowns return because of a spike in COVID-19 cases. Ecuador has tallied more than 344,000 cases and over 17,200 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States.

The new president’s main task will be “to depolarize the country,” Jaramillo said. “There will be no signs of governance if the new government does not reach out and generate a platform where agreements with the (National) Assembly are possible.”

Peru’s election turned into a popularity contest in which one candidate even addressed how he suppresses his sexual desires. The crowded field of presidential hopefuls came months after the country’s political chaos reached a new level in November, when three men were president in a single week after one was impeached by Congress over corruption allegations and protests forced his successor to resign in favor of the third.

All former Peruvian presidents who governed since 1985 have been ensnared in corruption allegation, some imprisoned or arrested in their mansions. One died by suicide before police could arrest him.

Claudia Navas, a political, social and security risk analyst with the global firm Control Risks, said the fragmented election was the result of a political system that has 11 parties lacking ideological cohesiveness. She said Peruvians overall do not trust politicians, with corruption being a key driver of the disillusionment toward the political system.

Navas said the congressional elections would likely result in a splintered legislature, with no party holding a clear majority and political alliances remaining short lived. She said the new Congress also was likely to continue to exercise its impeachment authority to reinforce its own influence and block any initiative that threatens its own power.

“So, we’ll likely continue to see significant legislative populism. This implies moves that seek to satisfy the public short-term needs and demands to the detriment of medium- and long-term sustainability,” Navas said. “Regardless of who wins, we believe that the president is somewhat unlikely to complete his or her term in office because of the of the populist-type of stance of the Congress and the risk of political instability is likely to persist through the administration.

To avoid a June runoff, a candidate would need more than 50% of the votes, and an exit poll indicated the leading candidate would get only about 16% support. The poll had conservative leftist teacher Pedro Castillo as the frontrunner, followed by right-wing economist Hernando de Soto and Keiko Fujimori, the opposition leader and daughter of the polarizing former President Alberto Fujimori.

The country is among the hardest hit by COVID-19, with more than 1.6 million cases and over 54,600 deaths as of Sunday.

 

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weird stuff was listening to reports on both races tonight

 

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weird stuff was listening to reports on both races tonight

I forgot about the IMF loan Moreno got

Former banker Guillermo Lasso has declared victory in the Ecuadorean presidential election, after his challenger, left-wing economist Andres Arauz, conceded defeat in a poll that took place against a COVID-19 pandemic that has devastated an already struggling economy.

Lasso said he accepted the “challenge” of governing after winning the runoff with 52.5 percent of the vote from 97 percent of the ballots had been counted, according to figures published by the National Electoral Council.

“It’s a day in which all Ecuadoreans have decided their future, they have used their vote to express the need for change and the desire for better days,” Lasso declared at a rally where jubilant supporters chanted “Lasso President!”

Lucia Newman, Al Jazeera’s Latin America editor, said it appeared Ecuadoreans were prepared to give Lasso a “chance” after he portrayed himself as more of a “father figure” who could bring the country together.

Lasso’s supporters celebrate the former banker’s victory [Fernando Mendez/AFP]

“It was unexpected,” she said from the Chilean capital Santiago, noting that Arauz had been the frontrunner for much of the campaign. “His conservative economic policies are not that popular. But Ecuadoreans are going to give this banker and businessman a chance. He’s really going to have his work cut out for him.”


The oil-exporting nation’s economy was already weak when the coronavirus outbreak started last year, but the pandemic has pushed a third of the population of more than 17 million into poverty and left half a million people unemployed.

Austerity measures, part of a $6.5bn financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund that were imposed by President Lenin Moreno – who did not seek re-election, failed to have an effect and only caused more pain.

The election council figures show 1.6 million null votes, which were probably the result of Indigenous activist Yaku Perez calling on supporters to spoil their ballots.

Perez ran in the first-round vote in February and narrowly lost out to Lasso for a place in the runoff, which he attributed to electoral fraud despite not presenting evidence.

Left-wing economist Andres Arauz led through much of the race but conceded defeat on Sunday night [Santiago Arcos/Reuters]

 

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Far-left candidate leads Peru’s presidential race: Exit poll

Pedro Castillo thanks supporters, asks for calm after an exit poll shows the far-left candidate leading with 16.1 percent of the vote.

Pedro Castillo of Peru Libre party waves to the media after casting his vote, outside a polling station in Cajamarca, Peru April 11, 2021 [Vidal Tarqui/Andina/Handout via Reuters]

Far-left candidate Pedro Castillo is leading the Peruvian presidential race with 16.1 percent of the vote, followed by conservative Keiko Fujimori and liberal economist Hernando de Soto, who are both tied in second place with 11.9 percent, according to an exit poll.

In fourth place is social conservative Yonhy Lescano, with 11 percent of the vote, followed by ultra-conservative Rafael Lopez Aliaga with 10.5 percent and leftist Veronika Mendoza with 8.8 percent, according to the Ipsos poll released on Sunday night.

The official results are expected to start coming in at 11:30pm local time (04:30 GMT Monday).

The top two candidates will advance to a second round in June.

The election on Sunday came amid Peru’s deadliest week of the coronavirus pandemic to date, with polling queues vying with lines of people seeking oxygen supplies for infected loved ones. Many voters said they turned out, despite fear of infection, merely to avoid the fine of 88 sol ($24) for not voting.

Eighteen candidates are running for the presidency in the tight race, which analysts have called Peru’s “most fragmented election” ever.

Castillo asks for calm
In Castillo’s home city of Cajamarca, in Peru’s northern highlands, there were celebrations following the early result indicator.

“I am grateful to the Peruvian people for this result,” Castillo told supporters, “and I ask for calm until the final results.”

Castillo, 51, a primary-school teacher and union leader, put on a late surge in the polls, proposing answers for many of Peru’s poorest people, particularly in the country’s largely rural interior.

Peru – among one of the world’s hardest-hit COVID-19 hit countries – has been in recession since the second quarter of last year after a lockdown forced businesses to close and crippled the tourism sector. More than 54,600 people have died from COVID-19, while four million people have lost their jobs and a further five million dropped into poverty.

Peru has also been convulsed by political upheaval driven by claims of corruption at the highest levels.

The election on Sunday comes months after the country’s political chaos plunged to new lows in November, when three men were named presidents in a week after one was impeached by Congress for corruption allegations and then protests forced his successor to resign.


Castillo has promised to redraft the country’s 27-year-old constitution, one of the key demands of young protesters who launched last year’s anti-government demonstrations, with a view to weakening the business elite and giving the state a more dominant role in sectors such as mining, oil, hydropower, gas and communications.

Peru’s presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori of the Fuerza Popular party holds hands during a speech at party headquarters in Lima, Peru, April 11, 2021 [Sebastian Castaneda/ Reuters]

Fujimori, daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori, tweeted on Sunday that she expected to take part in the next contest. “I have great faith that in the next few hours our inclusion in the second round will be confirmed,” she wrote.

Peruvians also voted for legislators who make up the country’s 130-seat Congress.

Exit poll results for that contest released by Ipsos Peru suggested that as predicted, Congress will continue to be fragmented, with 11 parties meeting the 5-percent threshold for representation but no party holding a clear majority, a potential hurdle for effective policymaking.

The Popular Action party of candidate Lescano and Castillo’s Free Peru party each obtained 10.7 percent of the votes, the Ipsos poll of voters suggested.

They were followed by the Popular Force party of Fujimori with 9.5 percent, the Popular Renovation party of Lopez Aliaga with 8.8 percent, the Country Forward party of de Soto with 8.4 percent, the Alliance for Progress party of businessman Cesar Acuna with 7.9 percent and Mendoza’s Together for Peru party with 7.7 percent, according to the exit poll result.