Dem 'Lytics Been Good to a Morey - FiveThirtyEight Release NBA Projections, Rockets W Clips L, more

[GoddamnyamanProf]

If you've noticed that the national media narrative around the final big aftershock of NBA free agency has shifted in the last few days - from "Lol that aint gone work" to "Hold on they could actually be really good" - you are correct, and here is why.

Multiple sources confirm that ever since the Cliff for Sabo trade went down, these new NBA cacs have been crunching the numbers in their analytics machines And it turns out, the results are more than a little surprising!

Fivethirtyeight.com is one of the premier purveyors of analytics for damn near everything in life. Last year they projected Lakers would miss the playoffs and everyone thought they were nuts

Here is how they have it shaking out in the 19-20 season:

Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season

 

[GoddamnyamanProf]

West is pretty shocking

Rox 36% chance to make the Finals, nobody else close

Clipset lost. After all that, the 6 seed? 5% to win it all?

Warriors still top 4?

Mavs in, Pels in...Spurs and Blazers OUT? @Serious might have to fire up that Neg Train for Nate Silver

 

[GoddamnyamanProf]

My Suns nearly double last year win total

Kings what happened brehs?

 

[GoddamnyamanProf]

East not as crazy

 

[NoMorePie]

They clearly took this using 2k's myleague simulator

 

[F K]

What Our Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

last year's predictions. some good calls (raptors 3rd highest chance to win finals, jazz and nuggets high up) and some big misses (lakers 72% chance to make playoffs, kings in last place, bucks lower than the wizards)

 

[Don Homer]

If you've noticed that the national media narrative around the final big aftershock of NBA free agency has shifted in the last few days - from "Lol that aint gone work" to "Hold on they could actually be really good" - you are correct, and here is why.

Multiple sources confirm that ever since the Cliff for Sabo trade went down, these new NBA cacs have been crunching the numbers in their analytics machines And it turns out, the results are more than a little surprising!

Fivethirtyeight.com is one of the premier purveyors of analytics for damn near everything in life. Last year they projected Lakers would miss the playoffs and everyone thought they were nuts

Here is how they have it shaking out in the 19-20 season:

Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season

They mustve projected lebron gets hurt

FOH with analytics

But GSW being 4th seed is what i like to see

 

[Inertia Creeps]

Clippers winning only 4 more games than the Mavericks??

The Mavericks winning more games than the Blazers and Spurs??

Disgruntled old CP3 carrying OKC to the same number of wins as Dame and CJ in their primes all by himself??

Suns winning 35 games in this historically stacked West?? Lowkey this the most unlikely one of them all

The playoff picture they're painting don't look all that unfathomable, but then you look at the actual projected wins and some of the teams they have coming in in that 9-12 range and the whole model goes wack. And that's all because of them going off of that trash ass CARMELO bullshyt they created. Goofies had Benamin Simmons projected to be the undisputed best player in the NBA by like 2018 using that "metric"; might be the single WOAT example of analytics in all of blogboidom

 

[Bigblackted4]

Clippers are a playoff team this regular season means nothing as long as they are a top 5 seed.

 

[god shamgod]

The clippers added pg and kawhi and this wakk model has them winning the same amount of games they won without them

Those fraud rockets aren’t winning jack and won’t get out the 2nd round

 

[DonKnock]

The clippers added pg and kawhi and this wakk model has them winning the same amount of games they won without them

Those fraud rockets aren’t winning jack and won’t get out the 2nd round

Paul George is coming off surgery on both shoulders and won’t play for the first few weeks of the season and Kawhi will likely miss 20 whatever games to load manage again.

Paul George also falls off a cliff annually in March.

Since you think CP3 is still a top tier workhorse and Harden (who will make his 5th WCF this year) isn’t, put your money on OKC to win 50 games

 

[god shamgod]

Paul George is coming off surgery on both shoulders and won’t play for the first few weeks of the season and Kawhi will likely miss 20 whatever games to load manage again.

Paul George also falls off a cliff annually in March.

Since you think CP3 is still a top tier workhorse and Harden (who will make his 5th WCF this year) isn’t, put your money on OKC to win 50 games

The rockets added arguably the worst fit next to the most ball dominant player in the nba, a bottom 5 shooter in the league and a low iq turnover machine only 2nd in the league to harden in turnovers and this dumb model has them 1st in the west.

I don't give a fukk how many games kahwi or george misses the clippers will be better than last years team and better than houston, especially in the playoffs

 

[Remote]

No Spurs love....

Well this is going to be interesting.

 

[storyteller]

What Our Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

last year's predictions. some good calls (raptors 3rd highest chance to win finals, jazz and nuggets high up) and some big misses (lakers 72% chance to make playoffs, kings in last place, bucks lower than the wizards)

I feel like that's always been the case with these purely analytics based takes. They hit on some really impressive picks but then they get some things incredibly wrong. Those Clippers projections for this upcoming season just seem off base to me (largely because I just don't think analytics for defensive play have caught up to offense based analytics yet).

 

[Dwight Howard]

The rockets added arguably the worst fit next to the most ball dominant player in the nba, a bottom 5 shooter in the league and a low iq turnover machine only 2nd in the league to harden in turnovers and this dumb model has them 1st in the west.

I don't give a fukk how many games kahwi or george misses the clippers will be better than last years team and better than houston, especially in the playoffs

Westbrook is still better for Houston than CP3 was last year based off health alone.