Carmelo Anthony is helping the Knicks win, but the numbers say he's far from an MVP candidate.
When evaluating a player, it's very important to register the player's fundamentals in a vacuum. You must break down his success and failure rate within the context of how his team is doing and his impact on that team.
And certainly it's great to see the New York Knicks surge into the spotlight, recovering from the loss of the excitement Jeremy Lin brought last season and the difficult coaching change. The team is morphing into a solid though not yet spectacular contender thanks to brilliant shooting from a host of players -- including Anthony on the perimeter -- and an offense that gets a shot on almost 90 percent of possessions. That is a deadly combination, and it has added up to the second-best offense in the league.
However, making grand observations about a player typically revolves around the success or failure of his team. Right now, the Knicks are taking the league by storm, and in doing so they are forcing most fans and many experts to assume Carmelo Anthony has suddenly become the pre-eminent player we all thought he was going to be when he entered the league in 2003.
However, based on what I am watching, and the corresponding numbers and metrics, I'm not seeing it.
By the numbers
First, let's look at some numbers. Thanks more or less to his full-time move to power forward, Anthony is making 46.3 percent of his field goals. It's the best he's done in years since he made 47.6 percent or better three consecutive seasons (2005-06 to 2007-08).
However, Anthony is attempting far more 3-pointers than he ever has -- and making them. The two 3-pointers he's hitting per game in just over five attempts per game has him on pace to best his former record from 2007-08 when he posted a 51.1 field goal efficiency percentage (eFG%) from that distance. Making 38.6 percent of 3-pointers this season drives his field goal percentage down but raises his eFG% to 51.4.
The increase in perimeter shots comes at a cost, however, as his free-throws-per-game average is down to almost an all-time low. Only in his rookie season has he taken fewer free throws per game.
The increase in perimeter shots comes at a cost, however, as his free-throws-per-game average is down to almost an all-time low. Only in his rookie season has he taken fewer FTs per game (6.4 compared to 6.3 in 2003-04). All told, his 25.7 points per 36 minutes is strong for him, but he has done better than that in four different seasons.
His journey to the perimeter has other consequences, as well, including his offensive rebound rates. His effort this season on the offensive glass is tied for just fifth-best in his career. The Knicks are in the bottom five in offensive rebound rate, while the Denver Nuggets finished top-five in that category multiple times while Anthony was leading them. But being farther away from the basket will naturally diminish his rebound rates.
Anthony has always been a decent passer. And when necessary, he has known where and when to throw the ball, and to whom. This season, it's just not part of his role, as he's currently assisting at a lower rate than he ever has. On a Knicks team that ranks third in shooting percentage from the field, their assist rate ranks just above the bottom third in the league. In other words, we know the Knicks are making a lot of shots on their own, which fits into Anthony's and his teammates' strengths. However, his turnover rate, correspondingly, is the highest it has been in four seasons.
The Knicks are winning on offense, with the league's best offensive efficiency numbers. But it feels a little hollow, as they are not winning on defense or the boards, where they range from 10th to 18th. Anthony's impact on both aspects of the game is at best average but nothing special, and certainly not MVP-caliber.
The move to power forward
Now, let's examine the impact of Anthony's move to power forward and how it's changed his game.
As he's getting more post-ups than ever, we could guess he's also getting more shots than ever near the rim, but that is not the case. His 7.4 shots inside is the most he has attempted per game since arriving in New York, but in Denver he had even more effective campaigns attacking the rim. In fact, in his last four seasons in Denver, he averaged just over 7.6 shots per game inside.
However, at power forward he's not only getting fewer free throws and fewer shots (and far fewer assists), but he's also making fewer of his shots. Anthony's worst shooting percentage inside since 2007-08 was 59.6. Three times, including his partial season in New York, he made better than 63 percent of his inside shots. This season, he's at just 51.9 percent, and the reason is clear: As a post player who is prone to drift to the perimeter or be forced there by denying defenders, Anthony is isolated in one-on-one situations more than he has been before. Consequently, he has few shot attempts that come off passes while he's moving.
[+] EnlargeCarmelo Anthony
Bruce Bennett/Getty ImagesAnthony is posting up more than ever, so his shot attempts off assists are at their lowest in seven years.
He is a brilliant player at both cutting and sealing defenders, which is why his buckets inside the paint are heavily assisted, typically ranging anywhere from 43.9 percent to 63 percent over the last six seasons. In Denver, Anthony usually was wide open and rarely contested because of his quickness and body type. That has evolved in New York -- or maybe devolved -- as last season just 41.1 percent of his baskets in the paint were assisted.
This season, stuck more in isolations, Anthony is making assisted baskets just 29.6 percent of the time. It's why his field goal percentages in the paint are down he now has to score against at least one defender with helpers waiting almost all the time. It's also why his turnovers are high; he is seeing the teeth of the defense more than he ever has before.
The move to power forward has had an impact farther out on the court, as well. Anthony was once considered one of the top midrange players in basketball, the area of the floor that is dominated by premier scorers and the place where those scorers are most often fouled. This year, Anthony is making only one shot per game from 3-15 feet (he typically made two to four in previous years) and posting horrible shooting percentages (14 percent from 3-9 feet, 30.8 percent from 10-15 feet, both his lowest percentages from those distances in seven seasons) with fewer attempts.
Two other swing forwards who are playing a lot of power forward now, LeBron James and Kevin Durant, both make more of these shots at higher percentages, and it's a reason why Durant shoots three-plus free throws per game more than Anthony, while James racks up far more assists. Getting space to shoot from that important space on the floor can be devastating to a defense, which must either help hard or compete hard (and risk fouling) to prevent the shot.
It's possible that Anthony's leadership finally has molded this team. It's also possible that he has inspired the Knicks to shoot better and pass less often but more accurately. Though that seems extreme, it's far more likely that Anthony has done a good job accepting his position change and has learned to be very effective as a power forward.
Again, very effective but not elite.
The Knicks as a unit are helped by his play, but he's not carrying them nearly as much as they are riding along with him toward the top of the Eastern Conference.