Last year, they were the darlings of the Western Conference, nearly everyone's pick to reach -- and according to many pundits -- win, the NBA Finals. I say nearly everyone because I was one of the few who did not pick the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the West.
Instead, I went with the Los Angeles Clippers. Go ahead, laugh. Of course, I also have an excuse for why the Clippers didn't live up to my hype -- Chauncey Billups' Achilles injury. Do I believe a healthy Billups would have helped the Clippers reach the Finals? No comment. But it's a built-in, ready-made excuse, so I'll take it.
But I digress.
Back to the Thunder. Despite logic telling us this young, talented team will only improve, they have seemingly been knocked down a notch. ESPN.com's own Summer Forecast and its panel of experts think doesn't think they'll win the West. With the Los Angeles Lakers snagging Dwight Howard away from the Orlando Magic, most onlookers appear to be penciling in that much-awaited, long-predicted, forever longed-for Finals matchup between LeBron James' Miami Heat and Kobe Bryant's Lakers.
But not so fast. Don't count out the Thunder just yet. There are several reasons to hold off on anointing the Lakers kings of the West this early. Chief among them being the Lakers themselves.
Lakers' issues
First of all, there's Howard's back. I have no doubt that he will eventually return to All-Star form, but will that be in November, when he's likely to start playing, or much later in the season, say after he shakes off the rust of months of relative inactivity. Remember that Howard, who had surgery April 20, said at his Lakers news conference a few weeks ago that he hasn't even started running yet.
Granted, even if it takes Howard until the second half of the season to reach 100 percent, the Lakers will still be a formidable club come playoff time, but with four stars who are used to having the ball in their hands, it'd be better for the Lakers' chemistry to adjust to a tip-top Howard sooner rather than later.
Then there is that familiar foe known as Father Time. As the saying goes, he is undefeated, though the Lakers' backcourt is putting up a heck of a fight. Bryant, 34, and Steve Nash, 38, have proved to be physical freaks, but at some point they're going to start playing their age. Bryant is fifth among active players in games played (1,161) and Nash (1,152) is sixth. And that's not even to mention all the playoff games they've logged. None of the players ahead of them -- Jason Kidd, Kevin Garnett, Juwan Howard and Derek Fisher -- is anywhere near their prime level of play, so a decline is coming. We'll see if it's this season.
While Bryant's ability to average 27.9 points last season was beyond commendable, it should be noted that he shot just 43 percent from the floor. That was his lowest FG percentage since his second season, when he was just 19. With Howard and Nash aboard, his league-leading 23 shots per game is sure to drop, so if he can't up his accuracy, his scoring will fall off quite a bit.
And while Nash was also strong last season, he did shoot the second-lowest percentage of his career (.390) from beyond the 3-point arc while averaging just 12.5 points, his lowest output since becoming a full-time starter back in 2000. Of course, Nash won't be called on to score much and his assist game was as strong as ever last season (10.7). Still, he'll turn 39 in February and greatness is rarely seen at that age.
Kobe Bryant & Steve Nash
Getty ImagesBryant and Nash both love having the ball. Can they share?
Finally, there is the question of chemistry. That has never been a problem on a Nash-led team, but it certainly has been on Bryant-led squads. And while Bryant has just about seen it all in his 16 seasons, the one thing he's rarely had to do is play with a ball-dominating point guard. Of course, Nash's shooting ability means he can play off the ball, but he's grown used to handling the rock 90 percent of the time. While both players might be mentally willing to play off the ball more, it will still be a tough adjustment after playing one way for so many years.
And don't forget about Howard. He didn't think he got the ball enough in Orlando, where he was the clear focal point of the offense (for the most part). How will he handle being the third or sometimes fourth option on some nights?
The Lakers are smart and experienced enough to figure it out, especially with top coaches like Mike Brown and his new offensive coordinator, Eddie Jordan, running things. But don't be surprised if there are growing pains.
Thunder's issues
While they desperately tried to win it all last season, the Thunder were simply too young and too unscathed. If they had won the title, they would have become the first champion in NBA history whose top four players and scorers were all under 24 years of age. But it didn't happen because that simply doesn't happen.
What also doesn't happen, at least not very often, is a team winning a title without experiencing some pain first. Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Isiah Thomas, Shaquille O'Neal and of course LeBron James all suffered through a crucible of torment before claiming the crown. Should Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook expect any different?
I do fully expect both of them to return as better, stronger and more seasoned players in 2012-13. Plus, backup point guard Eric Maynor will be back from injury. That should bolster the Thunder's perimeter advantage over the Lakers.
There's no doubt the Lakers are stronger up front. Howard and Pau Gasol will be what Andrew Bynum and Gasol were last season -- the best center-power forward combo on earth -- only better. But while OKC's bigs are offensively challenged (though Serge Ibaka is improving by leaps and bounds on that end of the floor), they are terrific defenders.
Ibaka's excellence goes without saying, but Kendrick Perkins will be the key against the Lakers. The fact that Perkins can defend Howard one-on-one with great success will be monumental for OKC. His ability to slow down Howard without help was a big reason the Boston Celtics had such great success against Howard's Magic in the Eastern Conference.
Finally, those who are worried about James Harden because he vanished in the Finals should relax. So he had a bad series against the Heat, averaging 12.4 points on 37 percent shooting. It doesn't mean he's not clutch; it doesn't mean he froze on the big stage. He simply played poorly. It happens, especially to 22-year-olds, which was Harden's age during the Finals.
Larry Bird averaged just 15 points and had back-to-back eight-point games in his first Finals appearance. So don't count out Harden at all. In fact, like Durant and Westbrook, expect him to be better. Expect the Thunder as whole to be better, too, perhaps even better than the Lakers.
Instead, I went with the Los Angeles Clippers. Go ahead, laugh. Of course, I also have an excuse for why the Clippers didn't live up to my hype -- Chauncey Billups' Achilles injury. Do I believe a healthy Billups would have helped the Clippers reach the Finals? No comment. But it's a built-in, ready-made excuse, so I'll take it.
But I digress.
Back to the Thunder. Despite logic telling us this young, talented team will only improve, they have seemingly been knocked down a notch. ESPN.com's own Summer Forecast and its panel of experts think doesn't think they'll win the West. With the Los Angeles Lakers snagging Dwight Howard away from the Orlando Magic, most onlookers appear to be penciling in that much-awaited, long-predicted, forever longed-for Finals matchup between LeBron James' Miami Heat and Kobe Bryant's Lakers.
But not so fast. Don't count out the Thunder just yet. There are several reasons to hold off on anointing the Lakers kings of the West this early. Chief among them being the Lakers themselves.
Lakers' issues
First of all, there's Howard's back. I have no doubt that he will eventually return to All-Star form, but will that be in November, when he's likely to start playing, or much later in the season, say after he shakes off the rust of months of relative inactivity. Remember that Howard, who had surgery April 20, said at his Lakers news conference a few weeks ago that he hasn't even started running yet.
Granted, even if it takes Howard until the second half of the season to reach 100 percent, the Lakers will still be a formidable club come playoff time, but with four stars who are used to having the ball in their hands, it'd be better for the Lakers' chemistry to adjust to a tip-top Howard sooner rather than later.
Then there is that familiar foe known as Father Time. As the saying goes, he is undefeated, though the Lakers' backcourt is putting up a heck of a fight. Bryant, 34, and Steve Nash, 38, have proved to be physical freaks, but at some point they're going to start playing their age. Bryant is fifth among active players in games played (1,161) and Nash (1,152) is sixth. And that's not even to mention all the playoff games they've logged. None of the players ahead of them -- Jason Kidd, Kevin Garnett, Juwan Howard and Derek Fisher -- is anywhere near their prime level of play, so a decline is coming. We'll see if it's this season.
While Bryant's ability to average 27.9 points last season was beyond commendable, it should be noted that he shot just 43 percent from the floor. That was his lowest FG percentage since his second season, when he was just 19. With Howard and Nash aboard, his league-leading 23 shots per game is sure to drop, so if he can't up his accuracy, his scoring will fall off quite a bit.
And while Nash was also strong last season, he did shoot the second-lowest percentage of his career (.390) from beyond the 3-point arc while averaging just 12.5 points, his lowest output since becoming a full-time starter back in 2000. Of course, Nash won't be called on to score much and his assist game was as strong as ever last season (10.7). Still, he'll turn 39 in February and greatness is rarely seen at that age.
Kobe Bryant & Steve Nash
Getty ImagesBryant and Nash both love having the ball. Can they share?
Finally, there is the question of chemistry. That has never been a problem on a Nash-led team, but it certainly has been on Bryant-led squads. And while Bryant has just about seen it all in his 16 seasons, the one thing he's rarely had to do is play with a ball-dominating point guard. Of course, Nash's shooting ability means he can play off the ball, but he's grown used to handling the rock 90 percent of the time. While both players might be mentally willing to play off the ball more, it will still be a tough adjustment after playing one way for so many years.
And don't forget about Howard. He didn't think he got the ball enough in Orlando, where he was the clear focal point of the offense (for the most part). How will he handle being the third or sometimes fourth option on some nights?
The Lakers are smart and experienced enough to figure it out, especially with top coaches like Mike Brown and his new offensive coordinator, Eddie Jordan, running things. But don't be surprised if there are growing pains.
Thunder's issues
While they desperately tried to win it all last season, the Thunder were simply too young and too unscathed. If they had won the title, they would have become the first champion in NBA history whose top four players and scorers were all under 24 years of age. But it didn't happen because that simply doesn't happen.
What also doesn't happen, at least not very often, is a team winning a title without experiencing some pain first. Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Isiah Thomas, Shaquille O'Neal and of course LeBron James all suffered through a crucible of torment before claiming the crown. Should Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook expect any different?
I do fully expect both of them to return as better, stronger and more seasoned players in 2012-13. Plus, backup point guard Eric Maynor will be back from injury. That should bolster the Thunder's perimeter advantage over the Lakers.
There's no doubt the Lakers are stronger up front. Howard and Pau Gasol will be what Andrew Bynum and Gasol were last season -- the best center-power forward combo on earth -- only better. But while OKC's bigs are offensively challenged (though Serge Ibaka is improving by leaps and bounds on that end of the floor), they are terrific defenders.
Ibaka's excellence goes without saying, but Kendrick Perkins will be the key against the Lakers. The fact that Perkins can defend Howard one-on-one with great success will be monumental for OKC. His ability to slow down Howard without help was a big reason the Boston Celtics had such great success against Howard's Magic in the Eastern Conference.
Finally, those who are worried about James Harden because he vanished in the Finals should relax. So he had a bad series against the Heat, averaging 12.4 points on 37 percent shooting. It doesn't mean he's not clutch; it doesn't mean he froze on the big stage. He simply played poorly. It happens, especially to 22-year-olds, which was Harden's age during the Finals.
Larry Bird averaged just 15 points and had back-to-back eight-point games in his first Finals appearance. So don't count out Harden at all. In fact, like Durant and Westbrook, expect him to be better. Expect the Thunder as whole to be better, too, perhaps even better than the Lakers.
billups and they win the series? 
