Brazil’s 2018 Election: Bolsonaro defeats Haddad to become President of Brazil

[FAH1223]

Brazil poll shows jailed Lula extending lead for October election

Anthony Boadle
BRASILIA (Reuters) - Jailed former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has increased his support by 5 percentage points and would win Brazil’s October presidential election if he was allowed to run, a poll by CNT/MDA showed on Monday.

The survey, which was last taken in May, found that almost half of the leftist leader’s supporters would transfer their votes to his running mate Fernando Haddad if Lula is disqualified from Brazil’s most uncertain race in decades.

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  Brazil poll excluding Lula shows far-right candidate holding lead

The Brazilian real led losses among Latin American currencies after the poll showed investors’ favorite Geraldo Alckmin, the candidate most likely to enact fiscal reforms, lagging far behind his rivals.

Electoral authorities are expected to bar Lula from the election due to a corruption conviction. Despite that, he took 37.3 percent of voter intentions in the latest poll, up from 32.4 percent in the same poll in May.

His nearest rival was far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro with 18.3 percent, followed by environmentalist Marina Silva with 5.6 percent and business-friendly Alckmin with 4.9 percent.


Support for Marina Silva and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes has slipped since the May poll, while support increased for Bolsonaro. Alckmin, a former governor of Sao Paulo state, has also gained ground marginally.

It was the first major poll since candidacies were officially registered last week, but it did not provide results for the likely scenario of a race without Lula.

Lula’s supporters were asked who they would back if he is out of the race and 17.3 percent of the people surveyed said they would cast their vote for Haddad, a former Sao Paulo mayor who would head the Workers Party ticket.


Another 11.9 percent of the voters surveyed would migrate to Marina Silva, 9.6 percent to Gomes, 6.2 percent to Bolsonaro and 3.7 percent to Alckmin.

Lula, Brazil’s first working class president and whose social policies lifted millions from poverty in Latin America’s largest nation, was jailed in April to start serving a 12-year sentence for receiving bribes.

The nationwide survey of 2,002 people was carried out by pollster MDA for the transportation sector lobby CNT between Aug. 15-18 and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[FAH1223]

Without Lula, Bolsonaro is the clear favorite. Expect a right wing military style authoritarian regime in Brasil to take power soon.

 

[88m3]

Without Lula, Bolsonaro is the clear favorite. Expect a right wing military style authoritarian regime in Brasil to take power soon.

That seems to be the wave a lot of the population is on.

Brazil is an odd place.

 

[ZoeGod]

That seems to be the wave a lot of the population is on.

Brazil is an odd place.

A myriad of reasons. There is little trust to politicians so the military is the only force the populace trust plus crime is sky high in Brazil. They have around 65,000 dead from homicides even though the number is much more higher. Plus the economy is in total shyt. So this creates an environment for far right support in Brazil.

Without Lula, Bolsonaro is the clear favorite. Expect a right wing military style authoritarian regime in Brasil to take power soon.

The murder rate in Brazil will double to 120,000 if that happens because the right wing militias that control the outskirts of Rio have local govt support. With Bolsonaro they will have federal support and this means the military and police will openly work with them to wage war against the favela gangs. These militias are filled with former and current military and police, prison guards and firemen. They will move into the main favelas in the major cities of Northern Brazil which will lead bloody clashes and attoricites towards Afro and pardo Brazilians.

 

[Baka's Weird Case]

if lula cant run all of those supporters need to vote for haddad. bolsonaro looks up to the dictatorship of the 60s-70s :rihfukkyou:

 

[FAH1223]

 

[DrBanneker]

Jair Bolsonaro is dangerous but a lot of his appeal comes from the relatively new evangelical right in Brazil. Evangelical Christianity is huge there now and is largely displacing Catholicism in political power. Granted it has the same politically connected pastor and megachurch bullshyt as the US but it can mobilize voters. A lot of Blacks and Pardos are evangelical but many preachers have a bit of an anti-Negro bent. Evangelicals have been caught raiding and destroying shrines/temples of traditional African religions like Umbanda as part of their war against 'idols' (a bit Taliban-ish, no?)

Most voters now weren't really alive before 1985 during the ditadura (military dictatorship) and don't realize the restriction of rights and brutality that accompanied it (or fall prey to propaganda claiming that criticism of the military is left wing fabrication). Crime is horrible. I lived and worked in Brazil for a stint and two of the Brazilians in my work group were carjacked in front of their homes. Granted crime will never go away unless larger social issues are fixed but walking and living in fear, like you do in many Brazilian cities, wears on the psyche.

Don't forget Josef Mengele, the Holocaust doctor found refuge amongst the Brazilian elites. The White elites of Brazil have always basically never been about greater social equality. Brazil's founding philosophy is positivism not Enlightenment egalitarianism. "Ordem e Progreso" on their flag "Order and Progress" is a reflection of this. They want Bolsonaro to bring order, whatever the cost, so they can have what they consider 'progress' (at least for some).

If they want to bring back an authoritarian government, I would rather it be the imperial Bragança family that ruled Brazil for most of the 19th century when Brazil was a constitutional monarchy. Ironically, Black folks had better mobility and a fairer shake under that system according to some accounts. Republican Brazil was founded in part when irate former slaveholders backed the revolution against the Empress after her unilateral emancipation of slaves in 1888,

 

[Yehuda]

Jair Bolsonaro is dangerous but a lot of his appeal comes from the relatively new evangelical right in Brazil. Evangelical Christianity is huge there now and is largely displacing Catholicism in political power. Granted it has the same politically connected pastor and megachurch bullshyt as the US but it can mobilize voters. A lot of Blacks and Pardos are evangelical but many preachers have a bit of an anti-Negro bent. Evangelicals have been caught raiding and destroying shrines/temples of traditional African religions like Umbanda as part of their war against 'idols' (a bit Taliban-ish, no?)

This ain't the first time I've seen you doing this but the few polls I've seen show Black people overwhelmingly reject Bolsonaro and religious intolerance, but yeah the Neopentecostal church is neoliberal in its essence and pushing prosperity theology concurrent with the country's economic growth helped them get popping among this new middle class.

Most voters now weren't really alive before 1985 during the ditadura (military dictatorship) and don't realize the restriction of rights and brutality that accompanied it (or fall prey to propaganda claiming that criticism of the military is left wing fabrication). Crime is horrible. I lived and worked in Brazil for a stint and two of the Brazilians in my work group were carjacked in front of their homes. Granted crime will never go away unless larger social issues are fixed but walking and living in fear, like you do in many Brazilian cities, wears on the psyche.

As for crime being horrible and walking and living in fear, people have to be careful when discussing this... there's a huge "fear industry" that capitalizes on scaring mf's into supporting the most reactionary politicians. You got these white hoes holding signs on Avenida Paulista calling for military intervention cause they're tired of violence they never actually experienced, all that's doing is feeding into a classist/racist discourse. The fact is crime/violence in urban areas is being "outsourced" to smaller cities and poorer regions of the country, due in part to the middle class in the cities taking the easy route and just paying for security instead of actually demanding their government do something about social inequality.

If they want to bring back an authoritarian government, I would rather it be the imperial Bragança family that ruled Brazil for most of the 19th century when Brazil was a constitutional monarchy. Ironically, Black folks had better mobility and a fairer shake under that system according to some accounts. Republican Brazil was founded in part when irate former slaveholders backed the revolution against the Empress after her unilateral emancipation of slaves in 1888,

Black people having better mobility and a fairer shake at a time when 15% of the population was still enslaved and more than 80% was illiterate doesn't mean much imo. That probably had more to do with the fact they still weren't being replaced by European workforce, which was started by the monarchy itself with the support of plantantion owners who wanted cheap labor for the coffee industry. And republican Brazil would still have to ditch slavery due to pressure from Britain, irate former slaveholders backed the Republicans against Pedro II cause back when abolition was being discussed there was a small sector of abolitionists that was considering land reform and they weren't having it, they also thought they'd be compensated after emancipation but the law made clear that no one would be getting paid. Anyway neither side was really trying to properly integrate former slaves into society.

 

[DrBanneker]

This ain't the first time I've seen you doing this but the few polls I've seen show Black people overwhelmingly reject Bolsonaro and religious intolerance, but yeah the Neopentecostal church is neoliberal in its essence and pushing prosperity theology concurrent with the country's economic growth helped them get popping among this new middle class.

Not the first time doing what? I never said Bolsonaro was good for Black people or that they overwhelmingly will support him. I wish Black people as a block would turn out reject his politics but some are going to get fooled by this whole baptism/Bible thumping campaign, especially if their preacher supports it. Black people will vote overwhelmingly for PT if Lula can run but it's not a 90% solid block like Blacks voting democratic in the US. The people claiming parda/morena can sometimes play that "democracia racial" . I don't want it to be that way but you know what I mean.

As for crime being horrible and walking and living in fear, people have to be careful when discussing this... there's a huge "fear industry" that capitalizes on scaring mf's into supporting the most reactionary politicians. You got these white hoes holding signs on Avenida Paulista calling for military intervention cause they're tired of violence they never actually experienced, all that's doing is feeding into a classist/racist discourse. The fact is crime/violence in urban areas is being "outsourced" to smaller cities and poorer regions of the country, due in part to the middle class in the cities taking the easy route and just paying for security instead of actually demanding their government do something about social inequality.

Indeed, they can live in gated communities or have 24/7 security and avoid the issues that the poor get. I understand crime is a dog whistle--just like here in the US. But it is bad and the solutions they are calling for (military intervention, etc.) are just going to make things worse. Killing poor Blacks has not helped the crime rate for 50 years so acting like upping the ante will help is . That being said, the crime and insecurity has many people shook for good reasons. Just cause the Whites are using it to pump racism doesn't mean we can act like things are all good, they aren't and I love Black Brazil.

Black people having better mobility and a fairer shake at a time when 15% of the population was still enslaved and more than 80% was illiterate doesn't mean much imo. That probably had more to do with the fact they still weren't being replaced by European workforce, which was started by the monarchy itself with the support of plantantion owners who wanted cheap labor for the coffee industry. And republican Brazil would still have to ditch slavery due to pressure from Britain, irate former slaveholders backed the Republicans against Pedro II cause back when abolition was being discussed there was a small sector of abolitionists that was considering land reform and they weren't having it, they also thought they'd be compensated after emancipation but the law made clear that no one would be getting paid. Anyway neither side was really trying to properly integrate former slaves into society.

No one of Brazil's greatest failures were no Reconstruction type initiatives or institutions to help integrate ex-slaves. Not claiming otherwise.

I mean fairer in a relative sense to other authoritarian policies. I don't act like Pedro II was some kind benevolent character or slave era Brazil was "good" but we are talking about the idiots advocating authoritarianism as an alternative to Brazil's problems. If someone was going to take republicanism from Brazil, I'm not sure if the people inspired by Pedro II would be worse than those inspired by Costelo Branco or Emílio Médici?

 

[ineedsleep212]

Tweet from a protected account so I just copied it

In which a candidate for president in brazil jokes about mass murdering people of the left opposition party...to cheers.

(Note: this is shortly after one of his fans threatened (with a gun) campaign staff of another left party)

 

[FAH1223]

 

[88m3]

unfortunate choice of weapon

 

[ZoeGod]

This is going to help his campaign smh. President Jair Bolsonaro is going to be a reality. Militias, military and police are about to be let loose in the favelas. If he wins I’m going to stop rooting for the Brazil national team until he is out of office.

 

[FAH1223]

This is going to help his campaign smh. President Jair Bolsonaro is going to be a reality. Militias, military and police are about to be let loose in the favelas. If he wins I’m going to stop rooting for the Brazil national team until he is out of office.

Brazil's far-right candidate Bolsonaro would lose in runoffs: poll


SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil’s far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro leads in first-round voting for October’s presidential election, but would lose to most rivals in a likely runoff ballot, according to a poll by Ibope released on Wednesday.

Bolsonaro took 22 percent in the first-round scenario of the survey, the first released since a court ruled jailed leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could not run.

Environmentalist Marina Silva and leftist Ciro Gomes were tied in second with 12 percent.

Business-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin had 9 percent while Fernando Haddad, who will likely replace Lula on the Workers Party ticket, had 6 percent in the Sept. 1-3 poll released by TV Globo.

Next month’s election is the most unpredictable since Brazil’s return to democracy three decades ago. Political corruption investigations have jailed scores of powerful businessmen, politicians and alienated voters who are infuriated with their representatives.


Despite Bolsonaro’s strong first-round polling, Ibope found that in simulated second-round votes, he would lose by 11 percentage points to Gomes, 10 percentage points to Marina Silva, and 9 percentage points to Alckmin, and would beat Haddad by 1 percentage point.

The poll of 2,002 voters has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.