Box Office: 'Ant-Man' Has Topped 'Green Lantern'

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Now what that other poster said

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Wednesday, Walt Disney's DIS -0.02%Ant-Man has earned $116.8 million at the domestic box office and $234 million at the worldwide box office. That puts the Marvel adventure just past the $116.6m US and $219m worldwide take of Green Lantern from 2011. Why am I even discussing this, beyond the clickbait headline? Well, aside from the clickbait headline (and the reassurance that I have other stuff in the pipeline today), it brings up a fun way to briefly discuss a few minor points in terms of apples-to-apples comparison in terms of box office punditry. And yeah, that headline too. As you all probably know,Ant-Man opened two weeks ago in America with a $57 million opening weekend. That was the second-lowest debut in Marvel Studios history, playing less like Guardians of the Galaxy and more like (non MCU films) X-Men: First Class, The Wolverine, Fantastic Four, and yes, Green Lantern and Watchmen. Yet despite the fact that all of these films opened just over/under $55m, they had vastly different box office trajectories and their overall performance led to wholly different long term outcomes.

As of now, the closest comparison point is X-Men: First Class, which 20th Century Fox opened in glorious 2D with $55 million on its way to an eventual $146m domestic cume (and $353m worldwide) on a $160m budget. Despite a relatively soft number, it earned rave reviews and jumpstarted fan faith in the long-running franchise and that goodwill paid off withX-Men: Days of Future Past last summer. Fantastic Four, which dropped ten years ago, was actually a pretty big hit in its day. It opened with $56m (more than the Fri-Sun $48m debut of Batman Begins) and eventually earned $157m domestic and $330m worldwide on a $100m budget. Let’s just say Fox will be thrilled if The Fantastic Four manages to more-than-triple its $120m budget next month. It spawned a sequel (Rise of the Silver Surfer) two years later that cost a little more ($130m), opened a little bigger ($58m) but did a little worse here and abroad ($131m/$288m).

Watchmen opened with $55 million in March of 2009, which normally would be a fantastic debut for a 2.75 hour R-rated comic book movie based on a cult property. But the Zack Snyder film cost $150m and we all knew that the legs would be nonexistent, and they were worse than that with a $107m domestic total and $185m worldwide cume. Same withGreen Lantern, which opened with $53m in June of 2011. Again, this was a heavily troubled production based on a B-list DC Comics character just before so-called geek media basically took control of the mass media at large. So under normal circumstances a $53m debut would be pretty solid. But again, we all knew the movie wasn’t just bad but relatively unentertaining and thus the writing was on the wall, and the film collapsed with $116m/$219m total on a $200m+ budget. And to this day, considering how many big budget disasters still manage to scrape up $250m-$300m worldwide, I’m still shocked at how poorly Green Lantern did not just here but overseas as well.

Yet like many movies that find themselves on the defensive after opening weekend, Ant-Man did not wither and die after its first three days. At $234m and counting, it will soon surpass the $263m worldwide cume of The Incredible Hulk. It will eventually surpass the $353m cume ofX-Men: First Classand the various totals of the first two Fantastic Four movies. Heck, inflation and 3D bump aside, it will likely surpass the $374m total of BatmanBegins, the $391m total of Superman Returns, and the $385m cume of the first Star Trek. All of this, by the way, on a mere $130m budget, making it one of the cheaper “big” comic book superhero movies of the last fifteen years. And it’s not quite done yet. Domestically, it’s heading towards a $150m-$175m total, and worldwide is a frustratingly open question since it doesn’t open in Greece, China, and Japan until September. And this will be among the lower-grossing Marvel Studios films thus far. So much for superhero fatigue.

And that’s really the point to all of this, aside from the occasional reminder that not every film that scores a vaguely similar opening weekend to another film will perform exactly like the latter picture. We’ve heard copious amounts of how the Marvel brand is damaged, or that Avengers: Age of Ultron only making $455m domestic and $1.4b worldwide and now Ant-Man openly opening with $57m means that the end is coming and the company is on a downward slope. Maybe they are. Maybe, beyond all reason to presume otherwise, Captain America: Civil War will “underperform” and the various Phase 3 films will basically be a waiting game for Avengers: Infinity War part II. But that’s a bridge that has yet to be crossed. For the moment, one of the lowest-grossing Marvel Studios movies is set to out-gross several X-Men films, and nearly every non-MCU comic book superhero movie not based around Batman, Superman, Wolverine, or Spider-Man on a budget about the size of what Sam Raimi spent on Spider-Man back in 2002. And they are doing that on an opening weekend that was all-too-similar to a number of lower-profile or outright lower-grossing comic book superhero movies from the last decade. Marvel’s alleged failures are still the envy of everyone else. Superhero fatigue indeed…


A Look At Marvel's Box Office History


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Box Office: 'Ant-Man' Has Topped 'Green Lantern'
 
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