When Major League Baseball's All-Stars convened in Kansas City earlier this week, one notable name was nowhere to be found: Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been an All-Star 14 times, more than any active player. He leads all active players in career value, according to traditional stats (home runs, runs, RBIs) and advanced stats (WARP). Only a handful of players in history have done as much to help their teams win, but career accomplishments mean only so much.
To be considered one of the best players in baseball, you have to continue to play like one. And lately, A-Rod hasn't looked a lot like an All-Star.
A-Rod's Decline
Rodriguez's plate appearances and true averages from 2007 to the present.
Year
PA
TAv
2007
708
.349
2008
594
.324
2009
535
.308
2010
595
.297
2011
428
.286
2012
350
.278
Rodriguez won his third American League MVP award in 2007. Since then, his performance has declined in five straight seasons (see chart). Most players can expect to see their numbers take a tumble after an MVP season, but A-Rod's decline goes beyond routine regression. He's not coming back down to earth. He's falling off the face of it.
Since 2007, Rodriguez has lost an average of 14 points of true average per season. Not only is he not playing as well, he's not playing as often. After making more than 700 plate appearances for the sixth time in 2007, he has yet to reach 600 in any season since. That combination of increasing infirmity and faltering offense culminated in a career-low 2.8 WARP in 2011.
There's nothing unusual about the fact that A-Rod isn't as dangerous or as durable at 36 as he was at 31. What is unusual is how fast and how far he has fallen.
When the Yankees re-signed Rodriguez to a 10-year, $275 million deal in December 2007 that would take him through his age-41 season, they knew his play probably wouldn't be worth an annual salary of $20 million or more toward the end of the contract. Their hope was that he'd be playable for the duration of the deal, do well enough early on to make the total expenditure tolerable and rewrite the record books along the way.
It's still conceivable that their hope could come true, but to borrow a line from Yogi Berra, it's getting late early for A-Rod.
[+] Enlargetk
Ben Lindbergh
The graph to the right (click to enlarge) shows the TAv trajectory by year for average players, Hall of Fame-eligible players, Hall of Famers and "inner-circle" Hall of Famers along with a best-fit curve for Rodriguez based on his performance so far. All five curves have been baselined to be equal at age 27, allowing us to compare their trajectories. What's important isn't the TAv of each, but the decline in the TAv from year to year.
What we see is that the performance of Hall-eligible hitters -- those who play for at least 10 seasons -- tends to decline more gradually than that of average hitters. Even though A-Rod is a member of that group, he is not declining like one. His aging curve places his rate of decline roughly halfway between that of the Hall-eligible players and that of the average ones.
Interestingly, average Hall of Fame hitters and "inner-circle" Hall of Famers age at roughly the same rate as players who are eligible for the Hall but aren't inducted. Because those inner-circle Hall members have such high peaks, they tend to remain productive well into their late 30s, and sometimes beyond.
If A-Rod's offense continues to decline along the path predicted by the curve, it won't be long before he is a liability. PECOTA projects his TAv to bounce back to .306 in the second half. In that case, he would finish 2012 with a .290 mark. Even in that relatively rosy scenario, Rodriguez projects to be a significantly below-average hitter for at least the final two years of his contract. If he can't continue to play third, his bat will be even less valuable.
A-Rod's health, which may have caused some of his struggles, is an equally serious problem. From 2001-07, he avoided the disabled list entirely. From 2008-12, he has been on the DL four times and had surgeries on his hip and knee. Last winter, Rodriguez traveled to Germany to undergo an experimental Orthokine procedure on his knee and shoulder, and he has played in all but three of the Yankees' games this season. But the larger trend is disturbing.
[+] Enlargetk
Ben Lindbergh
Almost from the start, A-Rod made many more trips to the plate than the average major leaguer his age (see graph, click to enlarge), but during the past few seasons, the gap has almost disappeared. The average player makes 18 percent fewer annual plate appearances from ages 32-35 than he does from ages 25-29. Rodriguez's average annual plate appearances during that period declined by 25 percent.
Some might attribute A-Rod's accelerated aging to his admitted use of steroids, but any connection is speculative. Rodriguez says he has been clean since 2003. Since then, he has two more MVP awards than failed drug tests. It's impossible to prove that his past PED use is unrelated to his recent performance, but he is hardly the first player to decline more quickly than expected. Before blaming A-Rod's history for his present problems, consider that clean-living anti-steroid crusader Dale Murphy, a Hall of Fame-caliber player in his prime, was essentially finished at age 32. Player aging isn't completely predictable, and there are no absolutes. We know when most players reach their peaks and start to decline, but not every player follows the pattern.
A-Rod's Future
Projecting Rodriguez's true averages from 2012 to 2017.
Year
Age
TAv
2012
36
.290
2013
37
.283
2014
38
.274
2015
39
.265
2016
40
.255
2017
41
.244
Regardless of the reason for his atypical aging, A-Rod's recent play has hurt his chances of making history (and the additional $30 million he stands to make in milestone incentives). From 2010-12, Rodriguez has hit 59 home runs in 1,200 at-bats, roughly one every 20. He remains 120 home runs behind Barry Bonds on the all-time list. Even assuming A-Rod suffers no further performance decline and continues to hit home runs at the same rate he has since 2010 -- an iffy assumption -- he'd need more than 2,450 at-bats to pass Bonds.
If he stays healthy, he could make that mark by the time he turns 40. But if he averages 462 at-bats per season, as he did from 2008-11, he won't get to 2,450 until the final weeks of his age-41 season, the final one of his current contract. That sounds like the perfect setup for a storybook ending -- an ancient A-Rod limping around the bases and becoming baseball's home run king just before the book closes on his contract -- but it's more likely to be fiction than fact.
The Yankees are the one team that could afford to give A-Rod his contract, and they're the one team that can continue to compete even after it becomes a burden. But they couldn't have expected it to become a burden so soon.
Ben Lindbergh is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus. He has contributed to three BP annuals, and he served as assistant editor of Baseball Prospectus 2011 and the two-volume Best of Baseball Prospectus collection. He daylights as a baseball analyst for Bloomberg Sports, has interned for multiple MLB teams and recently became a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.
To be considered one of the best players in baseball, you have to continue to play like one. And lately, A-Rod hasn't looked a lot like an All-Star.
A-Rod's Decline
Rodriguez's plate appearances and true averages from 2007 to the present.
Year
PA
TAv
2007
708
.349
2008
594
.324
2009
535
.308
2010
595
.297
2011
428
.286
2012
350
.278
Rodriguez won his third American League MVP award in 2007. Since then, his performance has declined in five straight seasons (see chart). Most players can expect to see their numbers take a tumble after an MVP season, but A-Rod's decline goes beyond routine regression. He's not coming back down to earth. He's falling off the face of it.
Since 2007, Rodriguez has lost an average of 14 points of true average per season. Not only is he not playing as well, he's not playing as often. After making more than 700 plate appearances for the sixth time in 2007, he has yet to reach 600 in any season since. That combination of increasing infirmity and faltering offense culminated in a career-low 2.8 WARP in 2011.
There's nothing unusual about the fact that A-Rod isn't as dangerous or as durable at 36 as he was at 31. What is unusual is how fast and how far he has fallen.
When the Yankees re-signed Rodriguez to a 10-year, $275 million deal in December 2007 that would take him through his age-41 season, they knew his play probably wouldn't be worth an annual salary of $20 million or more toward the end of the contract. Their hope was that he'd be playable for the duration of the deal, do well enough early on to make the total expenditure tolerable and rewrite the record books along the way.
It's still conceivable that their hope could come true, but to borrow a line from Yogi Berra, it's getting late early for A-Rod.
[+] Enlargetk
Ben Lindbergh
The graph to the right (click to enlarge) shows the TAv trajectory by year for average players, Hall of Fame-eligible players, Hall of Famers and "inner-circle" Hall of Famers along with a best-fit curve for Rodriguez based on his performance so far. All five curves have been baselined to be equal at age 27, allowing us to compare their trajectories. What's important isn't the TAv of each, but the decline in the TAv from year to year.
What we see is that the performance of Hall-eligible hitters -- those who play for at least 10 seasons -- tends to decline more gradually than that of average hitters. Even though A-Rod is a member of that group, he is not declining like one. His aging curve places his rate of decline roughly halfway between that of the Hall-eligible players and that of the average ones.
Interestingly, average Hall of Fame hitters and "inner-circle" Hall of Famers age at roughly the same rate as players who are eligible for the Hall but aren't inducted. Because those inner-circle Hall members have such high peaks, they tend to remain productive well into their late 30s, and sometimes beyond.
If A-Rod's offense continues to decline along the path predicted by the curve, it won't be long before he is a liability. PECOTA projects his TAv to bounce back to .306 in the second half. In that case, he would finish 2012 with a .290 mark. Even in that relatively rosy scenario, Rodriguez projects to be a significantly below-average hitter for at least the final two years of his contract. If he can't continue to play third, his bat will be even less valuable.
A-Rod's health, which may have caused some of his struggles, is an equally serious problem. From 2001-07, he avoided the disabled list entirely. From 2008-12, he has been on the DL four times and had surgeries on his hip and knee. Last winter, Rodriguez traveled to Germany to undergo an experimental Orthokine procedure on his knee and shoulder, and he has played in all but three of the Yankees' games this season. But the larger trend is disturbing.
[+] Enlargetk
Ben Lindbergh
Almost from the start, A-Rod made many more trips to the plate than the average major leaguer his age (see graph, click to enlarge), but during the past few seasons, the gap has almost disappeared. The average player makes 18 percent fewer annual plate appearances from ages 32-35 than he does from ages 25-29. Rodriguez's average annual plate appearances during that period declined by 25 percent.
Some might attribute A-Rod's accelerated aging to his admitted use of steroids, but any connection is speculative. Rodriguez says he has been clean since 2003. Since then, he has two more MVP awards than failed drug tests. It's impossible to prove that his past PED use is unrelated to his recent performance, but he is hardly the first player to decline more quickly than expected. Before blaming A-Rod's history for his present problems, consider that clean-living anti-steroid crusader Dale Murphy, a Hall of Fame-caliber player in his prime, was essentially finished at age 32. Player aging isn't completely predictable, and there are no absolutes. We know when most players reach their peaks and start to decline, but not every player follows the pattern.
A-Rod's Future
Projecting Rodriguez's true averages from 2012 to 2017.
Year
Age
TAv
2012
36
.290
2013
37
.283
2014
38
.274
2015
39
.265
2016
40
.255
2017
41
.244
Regardless of the reason for his atypical aging, A-Rod's recent play has hurt his chances of making history (and the additional $30 million he stands to make in milestone incentives). From 2010-12, Rodriguez has hit 59 home runs in 1,200 at-bats, roughly one every 20. He remains 120 home runs behind Barry Bonds on the all-time list. Even assuming A-Rod suffers no further performance decline and continues to hit home runs at the same rate he has since 2010 -- an iffy assumption -- he'd need more than 2,450 at-bats to pass Bonds.
If he stays healthy, he could make that mark by the time he turns 40. But if he averages 462 at-bats per season, as he did from 2008-11, he won't get to 2,450 until the final weeks of his age-41 season, the final one of his current contract. That sounds like the perfect setup for a storybook ending -- an ancient A-Rod limping around the bases and becoming baseball's home run king just before the book closes on his contract -- but it's more likely to be fiction than fact.
The Yankees are the one team that could afford to give A-Rod his contract, and they're the one team that can continue to compete even after it becomes a burden. But they couldn't have expected it to become a burden so soon.
Ben Lindbergh is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus. He has contributed to three BP annuals, and he served as assistant editor of Baseball Prospectus 2011 and the two-volume Best of Baseball Prospectus collection. He daylights as a baseball analyst for Bloomberg Sports, has interned for multiple MLB teams and recently became a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.
Yankees to the death
lets not act like Pujols is worth his contract.Pujols is declining at 32. A Rod declined in 2010 at age 35.