2024 UPDATE!! Altman: prepare for AI to be "uncomfortable" 33% US jobs gone..SKYNET, AI medical advances? BASIC INCOME? 1st AI MOVIE! AI MAYOR!!

Hood Critic

The Power Circle
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
23,848
Reputation
3,610
Daps
108,377
Reppin
דעת
Elon Musk drafts in humans after robots slow down Tesla Model 3 production

The electric car maker’s chief executive said that one of the reasons Tesla has struggled to reach promised production volumes was because of the company’s “excessive automation”.

Asked whether robots had slowed down production, rather than speeding it up, during a tour around Tesla’s factory by CBS, Musk replied: “Yes, they did … We had this crazy, complex network of conveyor belts … And it was not working, so we got rid of that whole thing.”

“Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated,” Musk added later.

Even in a predictable and repeatable process such as manufacturing a car hasn't been optimized for automation YET.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

Superstar
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
12,465
Reputation
2,832
Daps
47,818
Reppin
NULL
Elon Musk drafts in humans after robots slow down Tesla Model 3 production



Even in a predictable and repeatable process such as manufacturing a car hasn't been optimized for automation YET.

It is about trends. The need for SOME human interaction does not negate the overall trend towards automation. There will always be some tasks/jobs etc that will never be automated.

SVGZ-Automation-robotics-and-the-factory-of-the-future-Ex1.ashx


Look at graph below. It took appx 30 years to get from 0-100 skus, but only 10 more years to increase that number by more than 50% (2005 to 2015); and by 2020 expected to more than double 2015 numbers.

SVGZ-Automation-robotics-and-the-factory-of-the-future-Ex2.ashx
 

BillBanneker

Superstar
Supporter
Joined
May 13, 2012
Messages
8,823
Reputation
656
Daps
19,876
Reppin
NULL
Agreed

I think automation is FAR away from some boom taking out driver jobs en masse

There are too many sensitive variables


Yeah, its being overstated. I work in an industry where one of the jobs is suppose to be extremely sensitive to automation, and we've actually hired more folks at that position. :mjgrin:

There are just so many variables and nuances (legal, regulation, consumer preferences, cost, etc), that an extreme cascade of increase of automated sectors is unlikely.:manny:
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

Superstar
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
12,465
Reputation
2,832
Daps
47,818
Reppin
NULL
Yeah, its being overstated. I work in an industry where one of the jobs is suppose to be extremely sensitive to automation, and we've actually hired more folks at that position. :mjgrin:

There are just so many variables and nuances (legal, regulation, consumer preferences, cost, etc), that an extreme cascade of increase of automated sectors is unlikely.:manny:

How much automation was in your industry 20 years ago compared to today?
 

BillBanneker

Superstar
Supporter
Joined
May 13, 2012
Messages
8,823
Reputation
656
Daps
19,876
Reppin
NULL
How much automation was in your industry 20 years ago compared to today?


Honestly, I can't give you a complete answer on that since I've only been in my industry for 5-6 years. I presume a good amount, most of the affects I've seen regarding automation has been in the form of internet (oriented) development and (internet) based companies and that can offer lower rates to customers; we've (recently) added a internet/online specific portion of the company, but we've brought on more labor (sensitive to automation LO's). This could be purely due to market conditions right now though:manny: Eventally, those jobs and even mine will be automated:sadcam: but it'll take a rapid advancement, and extremely cheaper Machine Learning/AI to happen quickly.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

Superstar
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
12,465
Reputation
2,832
Daps
47,818
Reppin
NULL
There is no productivity crisis, experts say

One of the biggest puzzles in economics is why U.S. productivity growth is so sluggish despite low unemployment and record corporate profits — apart from a spurt during the dotcom boom, the rate has been under half the historical trend since 1970.

What's going on: A group of economists say they have an answer: we are in the middle of a gigantic but invisible technological transition. And, when it's over, productivity growth will return closer to its historical trend.

Quick take: In a presentation at the Dallas Fed on Friday, Chad Syverson, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, said technological history has been one of lag-times between the launch of new technologies and their visibility in productivity numbers. In work he did with MIT's Erik Brynjolfsson and Daniel Rock, Syverson said advances in artificial intelligence in particular simply have not worked their way through the economy and into complementary products.

He cited analogies:

  • At least half of U.S. factories remained unelectrified until 1919, three decades after the invention of the first functional AC motor.
  • It wasn’t until the 1980s, more than 25 years after the invention of the integrated circuit, that computers had penetrated U.S. businesses.
  • It took two decades for e-commerce to reach 10% penetration of retail.
Syverson and his co-authors call this "diffusion" — when a big invention like electricity and internal combustion comes into its own and spawns hundreds or thousands of devices that themselves are also huge but could not otherwise exist.

  • AI will soon diffuse, they say, and produce a second wave of productivity from computerization.
How this could make productivity growth return to its trend, Syverson said:

  • Autonomous vehicles will boost annual productivity by 0.17% for a decade by making the same number of cars move people around with many fewer drivers.
  • Call centers will operate with many fewer workers as AI is installed in their place, increasing annual productivity by a full 1% for a decade.
  • If AI reduces the number of jobs at forecast scale, certain industries will see immense productivity growth, too.
 

Perfectson

Banned
Joined
Aug 9, 2014
Messages
9,613
Reputation
-1,835
Daps
12,054
It's not about full autonomy. There will always be some human intervention/participation. But there are millions of jobs right now for which we have the technical know how to replace.

It's why the fast food restaurants probably actually love the $15/hr minimum wage movement. It gives them the space/justification to start the process of automation.


If you create a robot to be sentient , what human intervention would there be? Maybe one person who controls the robot I guess?
 

Mook

We should all strive to be like Mr. Rogers.
Supporter
Joined
Apr 30, 2012
Messages
22,910
Reputation
2,420
Daps
58,538
Reppin
Raleigh
Robot could never take risks like a human. Only a human could see 99 % failure rate but still go full steam ahead cause of that 1% chance. They'll never beat us.

Yes, we will probably wipe ourselves out but not before we impover and enslave ourselves lol.

If robot is doing everything what will man do?
 

The Fukin Prophecy

RIP Champ
Joined
May 1, 2012
Messages
24,337
Reputation
5,654
Daps
95,730
first they came for the temps...
The automation implementer will always have a job especially if we're talking about tech because somebody has to manage the process...Getting rid of the implementer is begging for trouble, what do you do when the process all of a sudden stops working and nobody knows how to fix it? That's a potentially huge business impact, time is money and time wasted troubleshooting is money lost...

Even if they boot you, you will still be able to find a job as an automation implementer quickly because those skills are in high demand...

The guy who refuses to learn how it works and embrace automation will be the one whose assed out...Look at the coal industry, the guys who designed the process aren't losing their jobs...They're sitting comfortably managing the process or implementing it elsewhere...Bubbas inbred remedial trailer trash crakka ass is the one who lost his job because he'd rather bytch and smoke meth than educate himself...
 

TLR Is Mental Poison

The Coli Is Not For You
Supporter
Joined
May 3, 2012
Messages
46,178
Reputation
7,463
Daps
105,782
Reppin
The Opposite Of Elliott Wilson's Mohawk
The amount of money to house, feed, and care for a horse would not be practical in today's society. On top of that, you have to leave for work an extra hour early, and you'll be freezing, because horses don't have heat, and you have to carry around water, and carrots, and sugar cubes. And you'd have to tie the horse up at work, and it's illegal, and cruel to chain animals. Plus, you know the horse would be making horse noises and shyt while you're inside, and that would be distracting.
Now apply all those advances to automated cars. 100 years ago, people were just as fearful about human driven cars vs horses

Bottom line, in America at least, most people hate driving, and car ownership is a complete burden. Autonomous cars, once fully fleshed out, would yield all the advantages of human driven cars, with very few of the downsides. Want to own your own car? Great, you can. Want to drive your car sometimes and let it take over? Go for it. Want to not have a car at all, and just hail a ride when you need it? No problem. Want to hail a ride but not share it with anyone? Again not an issue, for a fee. Want to save money and carpool with people of your choosing? Again, no problems.

Not to mention autonomous cars don't get drunk, text or get so old they shouldn't be driving like humans do all the time. There are benefits with parking, traffic etc as well. Are we ready for prime time right now? Hell no. But they are making big strides :yeshrug:
 

Perfectson

Banned
Joined
Aug 9, 2014
Messages
9,613
Reputation
-1,835
Daps
12,054
Robot could never take risks like a human. Only a human could see 99 % failure rate but still go full steam ahead cause of that 1% chance. They'll never beat us.


you're beaten when you put an odds to 99% to 1% eventually over time that 1% of 1% of 1% drops to close to 0.

statistically speaking that 1% chance is voided over a series of interactions. You basically ethered your own defense
 

Mook

We should all strive to be like Mr. Rogers.
Supporter
Joined
Apr 30, 2012
Messages
22,910
Reputation
2,420
Daps
58,538
Reppin
Raleigh
you're beaten when you put an odds to 99% to 1% eventually over time that 1% of 1% of 1% drops to close to 0.

statistically speaking that 1% chance is voided over a series of interactions. You basically ethered your own defense


Still a chance. We're people of hope. We'll never give up bruh.
 
Top