WHO WINS?


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iceberg_is_on_fire

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I'm of the belief that a good deal of you all are chicken littling for no reason. I believe that Kamala is up higher in the polls than what's being reported. Nate Silver, showing his ass and hedging every other minute is scaring y'all. These gop polls pushing narratives and phony numbers.

There are some things that you have to put wishful or wishless thinking aside and start looking at numbers and data.

Democrats have finally been awaked to the fact that we vote every year, not every four years. Numbers bare this out.


Elected Republican white men have publicly come out in favor of Kamala. Why is that significant? It is significant because they know that they can publicly say this and not fear retribution from their constituents because a good deal of them feel the same way.

Haley Republicans, by far and large, have a visceral reaction to Donald Trump. Even after Trump won the nomination, people were still voting 20-25% for Haley in the primary. That means something. They don't want him, his kind and how he's hijacked and b*stardized their party. Watch the number of how many Republicans vote for kamala over trump. I fear that it has nearly all to do with him versus her but I'll takes the results either way.

It has been shown time and time again that Trump is being overcompensated for in the polls this year, to not have a third cycle of him being underrepresented.

Abortion is still on the ballot and the person responsible for Roe being off the books is at the top of the ballot.

The democratic ground game is stronger than what Obama had during his tenure. It's the largest get out the vote campaign in history. They are still opening offices and pouring money into this initiative.

Paralysis of 2016. Elections since then have shown that democrats are getting out in numbers over the polls. Red waves have been muted puddles. Make no mistake about it, MAGA is a cult but just like how he turns out his followers, the detractors are out in full force too.

I think it's going to be a blowout for Kamala Harris and we will get to see her fine sister all up in the pics. :shaq:

Also, I do believe that media outlets are p*ssy because they know Trump will come after them, that's why they aren't saying everything about his current abnormal speeches and behaviors. Watch after Kamala wins, all of the news and rhetoric comes out shytting on MAGA and the GOP because Deebo didn't win the election.
 

The ADD

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lol says who? nobody cares about these archaic norms anymore. this would be a common sense way for the Biden corpse to use his bully pulpit but they won’t.
I don’t think he can walk down the hall and pull that database from Tom in IT.

I get your sentiment but let’s use some common sense.
 

Long Live The Kane

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Crazy how conservative areas down south and parts of the Midwest, its easy as hell to vote.

I think that’s partially because of population density…and not having things made worse by red state legislators deliberately making it harder to vote like they do in their liberal big cities

In this case is St. Peter’s is a largely conservative outer rim white flight suburb of STL….the population has exploded the past couple of decades and the infrastructure (in what used to be more rural sparsely developed areas) for everything from commuter traffic to early voting polling stations hasn’t caught up …and if only two locations were open they’re probably getting people from the exurbs (Ofallon, Wentzville) even further out too… STL and KC metro are pretty much the only liberal enclaves in Missouri, but if the outskirts are super engerized my dreams of Hawley getting beat are even more far fetched
 

King Static X

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I'm of the belief that a good deal of you all are chicken littling for no reason. I believe that Kamala is up higher in the polls than what's being reported. Nate Silver, showing his ass and hedging every other minute is scaring y'all. These gop polls pushing narratives and phony numbers.

There are some things that you have to put wishful or wishless thinking aside and start looking at numbers and data.

Democrats have finally been awaked to the fact that we vote every year, not every four years. Numbers bare this out.


Elected Republican white men have publicly come out in favor of Kamala. Why is that significant? It is significant because they know that they can publicly say this and not fear retribution from their constituents because a good deal of them feel the same way.

Haley Republicans, by far and large, have a visceral reaction to Donald Trump. Even after Trump won the nomination, people were still voting 20-25% for Haley in the primary. That means something. They don't want him, his kind and how he's hijacked and b*stardized their party. Watch the number of how many Republicans vote for kamala over trump. I fear that it has nearly all to do with him versus her but I'll takes the results either way.

It has been shown time and time again that Trump is being overcompensated for in the polls this year, to not have a third cycle of him being underrepresented.

Abortion is still on the ballot and the person responsible for Roe being off the books is at the top of the ballot.

The democratic ground game is stronger than what Obama had during his tenure. It's the largest get out the vote campaign in history. They are still opening offices and pouring money into this initiative.

Paralysis of 2016. Elections since then have shown that democrats are getting out in numbers over the polls. Red waves have been muted puddles. Make no mistake about it, MAGA is a cult but just like how he turns out his followers, the detractors are out in full force too.

I think it's going to be a blowout for Kamala Harris and we will get to see her fine sister all up in the pics. :shaq:

Also, I do believe that media outlets are p*ssy because they know Trump will come after them, that's why they aren't saying everything about his current abnormal speeches and behaviors. Watch after Kamala wins, all of the news and rhetoric comes out shytting on MAGA and the GOP because Deebo didn't win the election.
I don't think that Kamala will win "in a blowout", but I agree with everything else you said.

I think that Kamala will win, and by bigger than most polls suggest.
 

The ADD

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What is "TLR level discourse"? You're just randomly saying that for no reason.
Your elementary replies and reasoning:
  • Essentially saying that nothing in 2016 worked because she lost
  • Inferring I said things I didn’t say and when challenged not being able to produce the quote
 

Bleed The Freak

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Hillary's ground game in 2016 was horrible. Robby Mook actively disdained traditional GOTV activities and was obsessed with data analytics. The campaign even actively discouraged people from going door to door in some instances. Pathetic.

Biden's GOTV was severely hampered by COVID, obviously.

This will be the first time Trump faces the full Democratic machine on the ground and unhampered.

Had the Obama playbook handed to them and threw it in the trash
 

good pups

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this is an interesting read and covers some notable features this year: fewer polls, particularly state polls, because they're more expensive than ever



aggregators still have to aggregate and make their predictions, that's their business model. but they don't have as much data as they did even in 2020.

man I gotta stop paying attention to any of it
 
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