Both teams have big-name free agents (Chris Jones, Chase Young) and extensions (Brandon Aiyuk, Creed Humphrey) to navigate. Can they make it work?
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The Chiefs theoretically could use the franchise tag on Jones this offseason, but it would cost them $32.16 million. They also have to account for the $4.25 million option bonus they just picked up. With the way that works, that charge is spread out over five years from 2023 to '27 for cap purposes. But since the remaining years on Jones' contract void next week, the remaining 80% of it ($3.4 million) accelerates onto their 2024 cap. So the Chiefs would have to carry a salary cap charge of $35.56 million for Jones if they franchised him.
That all means the preference would be doing a long-term extension that kept the 2024 cap number more manageable. If they tag Jones, the general belief is that they won't have enough money to re-sign Sneed, who could fetch upward of $18-19 million per year on a new deal if he hit the open market.
What about Sneed: Sneed is one of the league's top corners and a key part of the Chiefs' defense (nine pass breakups last season and 10 career interceptions), so he wouldn't be easy to replace. But the Chiefs have drafted four cornerbacks in the past two drafts, including 2022 first-rounder Trent McDuffie, who appears more than ready to take over as the No. 1 corner if Sneed leaves. Their draft strategy has been preparing them for the possibility of this happening. Jones, who is the key to their pass rush and a top-five defender in the league, seems to be more difficult to replace than Sneed.
As of now, according to Roster Management System, the Chiefs project to be about $21.2 million under the 2024 cap. (The 2024 cap number isn't set yet, but most teams around the league seem to be working with a projected cap of $242 million.) They'd need to clear space if they wanted to fit in Jones' franchise tag.
The Mahomes factor: One of the best assets the Chiefs have at their disposal for these moves is Mahomes' contract, which has eight years left on it and affords them the perpetual ability to convert salary to bonuses and clear cap room. If the Chiefs did a full restructure on his 2024 compensation -- converting all but the required $1.21 million veteran minimum salary to a signing bonus and also converting his $34.9 million roster bonus to a signing bonus -- they'd reduce his 2024 cap number from its current $58.6 million to around $23 million. That savings alone would increase their projected cap space to about $57 million. Put simply, the savings from that restructuring of Mahomes' contract, which is inevitable, is almost exactly the same as the cap cost of Jones if they franchise him.
So once that's done (and again, this assumes the Chiefs don't get an extension done with Jones and have to franchise him), the Chiefs would be back down to roughly that original $21.2 million in cap space. This would easily afford them enough room to re-sign Sneed if they wanted. We can use last year's Trevon Diggs extension with the Dallas Cowboys as an example. Diggs got a five-year, $97 million extension with $33.3 million fully guaranteed at signing, including a $21.25 million signing bonus. Let's be generous and say Sneed gets $1 million more per year, giving him five years and $102 million with, say, a $25 million signing bonus. His cap number for 2024 on a structure like that would be $6.125 million.
The Chiefs might not want to do a top-of-market deal for Sneed -- they've been preparing for his potential exit for the past couple of years and may just let him walk. I'm just trying to explain how they could keep both Jones and Sneed. In our example, with Jones on the franchise tag and Sneed on a fat new contract, the Chiefs still have just over $15 million in cap space with which to operate the rest of their offseason.
More moves needed: Of course, just returning Jones and Sneed isn't enough. If the Chiefs want to bring back some of those other free agents -- Gay, Townsend, Edwards, Nnadi and more -- that cap space will dry up quickly. And teams generally need to hold open something like $5 million to $6 million to account for their draft picks. Plus, the Chiefs have other needs. If Donovan Smith isn't re-signed, they will need a left tackle. They could use more help at wide receiver. Those aren't cheap positions to fill in free agency. And there's no cap room to be found in potential extensions for 2022 draft picks Bolton, Humphrey and Trey Smith, each of whom at this point is entering the fourth year of his relatively low-cost rookie contract.
That's where other avenues for potential savings come in. Releasing Valdes-Scantling would save $12 million in cap space, though it would also deepen their need at wide receiver. Releasing Reid would save $10.75 million in cap space (they've drafted two safeties over the past two years as well). Omenihu, who tore an ACL in the AFC Championship Game and might not be ready to start the regular season as a result, has no guaranteed money left on his contract, and as cold as it might be, they would save $7.22 million if they cut him. (Note: $2 million of Omenihu's $6.74 million salary becomes guaranteed on March 16, so Kansas City would have to make this decision fairly soon.)
I'm not saying the Chiefs will or even should cut all three of those guys, but if they did, that's another nearly $30 million in cap space. That takes them back up to around $45 million, which they could use to sign free agents, extend their own guys and sign their draft picks. And that number could go higher if they were to restructure the contracts of guard Joe Thuney (about $7.5 million more in cap savings) and right tackle Jawaan Taylor (about $12.6 million more) and/or restructure or extend tight end Travis Kelce ($5.5-8 million more).
A couple of additional notes before we move on to San Francisco:
You might be yelling, "Kadarius Toney!" Why not cut the struggling receiver? Well, they might. His performance was that bad (five drops and just 169 total yards last season). But the Chiefs wouldn't save any cash or cap space by cutting him. As a 2021 first-round pick, Toney's entire four-year rookie contract was fully guaranteed. So the Chiefs have to pay him his $2.53 million salary for 2024 (and count it against the cap) even if they release him.
The contract of Taylor is worth a mention, too, because the right tackle and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, did a pretty sweet job on this one. Taylor is owed $20 million in guaranteed money in 2024, which means it would actually cost the Chiefs more against the 2024 cap to cut him than it would to keep him. But where Taylor really won here was with this little beauty: As of the third day of the 2024 league year (March 16), Taylor's $20 million in 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed. This effectively ties the Chiefs to Taylor (who was flagged for 19 penalties last season) through at least 2024, and likely longer. Their best play here may be to move him to left tackle to replace Donovan Smith and find a cheaper option to play on the right side.
The most likely outcome: Even though it's possible for the Chiefs to keep both Jones and Sneed, the prediction here is that they won't. I think they will find a way to keep Jones, since he's just that irreplaceable, even if it's just taking his franchise tag number and doing a one-year deal with four void years on the end of it to lessen the short-term cap impact.
If that happens, my prediction is Sneed leaves and gets his big deal elsewhere. Kansas City let Charvarius Ward leave in free agency at the end of his rookie contract three years ago in part because Sneed was on the way. Now, with McDuffie and others ready to move up, it feels like the Chiefs are prepared to let Sneed leave and use that money elsewhere. Circle of life.
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