2024 Congressional Elections: U.S. House is a jump ball; GOP will re-take U.S. Senate?

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CASTLE ROCK, Colo.— After a tough year of embarrassing scandals, Rep. Lauren Boebert’s jump to a new district may pay off Tuesday. Six months after the bombastic two-term Colorado Republican announced she would move her political fortunes from the state’s Western Slope to its Eastern plains and suburbs, Boebert has eclipsed her Republican primary rivals in fundraising and was 35 points ahead of the nearest one in a recent poll.

“The math just isn’t there for anybody to beat her,” Colorado GOP political consultant dikk Wadhams said as the primary approached.

Coloradans, who primarily vote by mail, have been casting their ballots for weeks. If Boebert is successful in securing the nomination Tuesday, she will be comfortably positioned for the general election in a district with a 13-point Republican advantage, according to the Cook Political Report.

Boebert, who first became known on the political stage for her vocal support of gun rights, has gained national recognition over the years for such attention-grabbing antics such as tweeting “Today is 1776” on the day of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack and booing President Biden during the State of the Union. Friday, she received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who called her a “trusted America First Fighter.”

While she has toned down her confrontational style, Boebert remains a member of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, which often clashes with party leadership, drawing the support of voters angry at the status quo. Retirements have left all three of Colorado’s GOP districts without incumbents this year, amid a slew of planned Republican exits that included many dealmakers and could further empower the anti-leadership wing.

In Douglas County, a wealthy suburb of Denver that makes up nearly half of the district’s Republicans, several voters pulling in to cast or drop off a ballot next to the bleachers of the local fairgrounds were supportive of Boebert.

“I know she’s controversial, but she has a lot of spirit and she’ll fight for what’s important,” said Charlie VanderLinden, a Castle Rock retiree who said national issues including immigration and crime led her to vote for Boebert. VanderLinden was one of the few people who chose to vote in person, because she said she didn’t trust her mail-in ballot.

Rival GOP candidate Deborah Flora, a radio host who has received several high-profile endorsements in the race, said it isn’t over yet. She noted that the poll showing Boebert far ahead of the others in the race still showed a minority of the district supporting the congresswoman and the bulk of voters undecided.

“That shows this is very fluid,” Flora said. “We’re hearing that there’s a lot of people wanting to move away from drama and dysfunction.”

Boebert’s eastward move came after she barely retained her seat in 2022, in the state’s Third Congressional District where voters, while Republican leaning, had grown weary of her negative headlines and tight alignment with Trump.

In Colorado’s eastern Fourth District—the most conservative in a state that has become progressively bluer in recent cycles—Boebert initially faced skepticism. She endured accusations of carpetbagging, and some voters were turned off by an incident in which she was removed from a Denver theater, with video footage showing her vaping and groping her date during the musical “Beetlejuice.” But she had widespread star power in a crowded field of lesser-known candidates.

In March, retiring Rep. Ken Buck announced that he would resign his seat immediately, forcing a special election for the last months of his term. The move was widely seen as the best opportunity for Boebert detractors to spur momentum for someone else, as the congresswoman opted not to participate in the special election.

Rather than elevating one of Boebert’s opponents, however, Republicans opted to nominate Greg Lopez, a former mayor of Parker, Colo., who vowed to hold the seat for only six months until January 2025 and not seek the nomination for the general election. Voting for that special election is happening simultaneously with the regular congressional primary.

Polling analysis in February by research firm Kaplan Strategies found that Boebert could lose if her opposition coalesced around a single challenger. This month, with six candidates still in the race, the firm found 40% of likely voters in the primary support Boebert and her opponents remain largely unknown, with none netting more than 5% support.

The firm also found that Boebert had significantly improved her favorability rating, to 47% from 38% among Republican voters.

Drew Sexton, a campaign spokesman for the congresswoman, said she was feeling good about the race and credited her work on the ground with helping answer voter concerns. “This was not necessarily a given,” he said. “People have seen she’s put in the work.”

Voter Carolyn Smith, a retired church volunteer, said the sheer persistence of Boebert’s campaign materials, and a generally positive view of her politics, led her to overlook the congresswoman’s controversies and cast a vote for her.

“Some things you have to let slide,” Smith said.

Wadhams, the political consultant, said that while he expects Boebert to prevail both Tuesday and in November, he will be closely watching her margin in a district that her predecessor won by 24 points. A narrower margin in the general election could signal tougher races in the future.

“We, Republicans, could find ourselves in the same position in 2026 as when she was in the Third District,” he said. “She all of a sudden makes a Republican district vulnerable.”

Write to Elizabeth Findell at elizabeth.findell@wsj.com
 

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EXCLUSIVE: VA Senate candidate says he was 'blown up' in combat. His record doesn’t show that.​

Elizabeth Beyer Tom Vanden Brook

USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — The Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, a decorated Navy veteran, has made repeated references to becoming disabled after he was “blown up” in combat, and has stressed that he has scars from his military service while Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine got rich from the safety of Capitol Hill.

Yet the Navy service record for Hung Cao, who won the GOP primary in June, does not show a Purple Heart award, the commendation given to troops who have suffered wounds from “direct or indirect result of enemy action” that required medical attention. Nor does his record indicate that he received the Navy’s Combat Action Ribbon, which requires that a sailor "must have rendered satisfactory performance under enemy fire while actively participating in ground or surface combat engagement.” USA TODAY obtained Cao's record from the Navy.

Cao, 52, through his campaign, declined to answer specific questions about his military service. He has not claimed to have been awarded a Purple Heart or the Navy's Combat Action Ribbon. His record shows that he was awarded a Bronze Star and that he deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq. The Bronze Star is awarded to sailors who distinguish themselves by "heroic or meritorious achievement or service."

The Navy designated him a "special operations explosive ordnance disposal/dive officer." He retired as a captain in 2021.

“Capt. Hung Cao is a retired Navy Captain with twenty-five years of honorable service to his country. His service is a matter of public record under his DD 214, as with any retired member of our armed forces," his campaign said in a statement Wednesday, referring to his military personnel form.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

In a statement, a Navy spokesperson said there was not a narrative description in the record of why Cao was awarded the Bronze Star. Asked why there was neither a Purple Heart or Combat Action Ribbon, spokesperson Ferry Gene Baylon said the Navy cannot discuss criteria or reasons "someone would or would not have a certain award."

Hung Cao, Republican candidate from Virginia, running for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, appears in an undated handout photo provided October 11, 2022.

Cao has been more expansive about his service during campaign appearances. When he ran an unsuccessful bid for Congress in 2022, Cao told an audience that combat wounds had fully disabled him.

"I'm 100% disabled, you know, because just from being blown up in combat many times and everything else, you know, knee, shoulders," Cao said on April 22, 2022. “I've got more surgeries than you could possibly imagine.”

In his campaign against Kaine, Cao has continued to stress his military service on radio shows, podcast episodes and in television news segments. Cao has said that he’s been “shot at,” “blown up,” and has “scars” from his time in the military. He often refers to combat deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia as the origin of those combat wounds.

On a June 21 episode of the podcast Talk of Delmarva with Jake Smith, Cao said he "was getting shot at and blown up in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia."

Again, on a June 21 episode of the podcast The Schilling Show, Cao said, "Are you telling me your air-conditioned office where the worst thing that can happen for you is having a paper cut is the same as me getting, you know, blown up and shot at in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia?"

Four retired Navy and Army officers who reviewed Cao’s service record said it was unusual for a sailor severely wounded in combat in Iraq or Afghanistan not to have received a Purple Heart or the Navy’s Combat Action Ribbon.

Cao, in a Facebook post, criticized USA TODAY for asking about his service record and listed questions posed to him by reporters. USA TODAY reporters called, texted and emailed his campaign manager Tuesday and Wednesday seeking comment on Cao's military record.

The campaign has not addressed the questions directly, issuing only the short statement.

"I want to give you all a window into what it's like being a combat veteran who had the gall to run for public office against a career politician," Cao posted. "Any veteran will read this with the same disgust. Imagine being asked to provide documentation of the dates and times Al Qaeda shot at you. Imagine being asked, if you're a disabled veteran, why don't you have a Purple Heart?"

The contest between Cao and Kaine is one of several across the U.S. that will determine which party controls the closely divided Senate.

Cao, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, won the primary decisively. He garnered over 60% of the vote in the field of five candidates, which included retired Army Ranger Eddie Garcia, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Chuck Smith, who served in the U.S. Marine Corps during the Vietnam War.
 

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Greg Sargent/

July 5, 2024

UNHINGED


MAGA Gov Candidate’s Ugly, Hateful Rant: “Some Folks Need Killing!”​


Mark Robinson, the GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, has a long history of incendiary comments. But he may have topped himself this time.​

Mark Robinson speaks with finger raised in the air

ANNA MONEYMAKER/GETTY IMAGES

North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson speaks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference in Washington, D.C., on June 21.

Mark Robinson, the extremist GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, appeared to endorse political violence in a bizarre and extended rant he delivered on June 30 in a small-town church.

“Some folks need killing!” Robinson, the state’s lieutenant governor, shouted during a roughly half-hour-long speech in Lake Church in the tiny town of White Lake, in the southeast corner of the state. “It’s time for somebody to say it. It’s not a matter of vengeance. It’s not a matter of being mean or spiteful. It’s a matter of necessity!”

Robinson’s call for the “killing” of “some folks” came during an extended diatribe in which he attacked an extraordinary assortment of enemies. These ranged from “people who have evil intent” to “wicked people” to those doing things like “torturing and murdering and raping” to socialists and Communists. He also invoked those supposedly undermining America’s founding ideals and leftists allegedly persecuting conservatives by canceling them and doxxing them online.

In all this, Robinson appeared to endorse lethal violence against these unnamed enemies, particularly on the left, though he wasn’t exactly clear on which “folks” are the ones who “need killing.”

Robinson, a self-described “MAGA Republican,” has a long history of wildly radical and unhinged moments. He has linked homosexuality to pedophilia, called for the arrest of trans women, pushed hallucinogenic antisemitic conspiracy theories, endorsed the vile “birther” conspiracy about Barack Obama, described Michelle Obama as a man, hinted at the need to violently oppose federal law enforcement and the government, and posted memes mocking and denying the brutal, violent assault on Nancy Pelosi’s husband, among many other things.

His latest rant is yet another example of an ugly game widely played on the MAGA right, one supercharged by Donald Trump. It entails hinting that right-wing political violence is necessary and justified because a ubiquitous, all-seeing, all-powerful leftist threat—one that is pure invention—is already supposedly attacking and persecuting conservatives on a mass scale.

Here’s what Robinson said (bold mine):

We now find ourselves struggling with people who have evil intent. You know, there’s a time when we used to meet evil on the battlefield, and guess what we did to it? We killed it! … When the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, what did we do? We flew to Japan! And we killed the Japanese Army and Navy! … We didn’t argue and capitulate and talk about, well, maybe we shouldn’t fight the Nazis that hard. No, they’re bad. Kill them. Some liberal somewhere is going to say that sounds awful. Too bad. Get mad at me if you want to.

Some folks need killing!
It’s time for somebody to say it. It’s not a matter of vengeance. It’s not a matter of being mean or spiteful. It’s a matter of necessity! When you have wicked people doing wicked things, torturing and murdering and raping. It’s time to call out, uh, those guys in green and go have them handled. Or those boys in blue and have them go handle it.…

We need to start handling our business again.Don’t you feel it slipping away? … The further we start sliding into making 1776 a distant memory and the tenets of socialism and communism start coming into clearer focus. They’re watching us. They’re listening to us. They’re tracking us. They get mad at you. They cancel you. They dox you. They kick you off social media. They come in and close down your business. Folks, it’s happening … because we have forgotten who we are.

Robinson might try to argue that he only meant that our enemies during World War II—and torturers and murderers and rapists today—deserve “killing.” But the sum total of his remarks plainly suggests otherwise. He seemed to analogize the need to kill World War II enemies to the need to kill enemies in the present, enemies who harbor “evil intent,” enemies conservatives are struggling against “now.”

What’s more, Robinson described those enemies in very broad terms. He suggested that conservatives will lose the spirit of 1776 (meaning their country) to enemies who harass them on social media and elsewhere unless they are prepared to unleash the army and cops to “handle” (i.e., kill) them. These appear to be the “folks” who “need killing.”

Indeed, when Robinson predicted that liberals will say “that sounds awful,” and “too bad,” he himself appeared to anticipate that his call for “killing” would be perceived as a call for political violence.

The Reverend Cameron McGill, the Pastor of Lake Church, confirmed to me that he and Robinson expected these remarks about “killing” to be “scrutinized,” but defended them.

“Without a doubt, those he deemed worthy of death [were] those seeking to kill us,” Pastor Cameron said in an email, adding that Robinson “certainly did not imply the taking of any innocent lives” and that the rest of his speech was “non-controversial.” There was no formal media presence during the speech, the Pastor confirmed.

Video of the speech was clipped by a Democrat, who took it off Lake Church’s video of the event on Facebook, which is still there in full. The Democrat flagged it for The New Republic. You can watch it here:

LAKE CHURCH FACEBOOK PAGE

This tendency on the right to invoke an infinitely hallucinogenic and malleable leftist enemy to justify in advance the political violence that the right itself wants to unleash on its enemies is a near-daily occurrence. Another ripe example came just this week from Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, the brain trust behind Project 2025’s radical blueprint for MAGA authoritarian rule under a second Trump presidency.

“We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” Roberts declared.

In this, Roberts essentially said that if liberals and Democrats too vehemently resist MAGA’s intent to stock the government with corrupt loyalists to Trump and unleash mass persecution of the opposition, violence will be necessary to crush them—and if so, it will be their fault for not meekly accepting what they have coming to them. Meanwhile, Trump himself recently suggested that political violence may erupt if the presidential election isn’t conducted with “fairness” and is stolen from him, by which he really means, “if I don’t win.”

Robinson’s new comments are also notable for political reasons. They’re a reminder that the GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina is so extreme that the race to replace term-limited Governor Roy Cooper—Robinson is running against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein—may prove competitive, even in this red-leaning state.
 
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