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CASTLE ROCK, Colo.— After a tough year of embarrassing scandals, Rep. Lauren Boebert’s jump to a new district may pay off Tuesday. Six months after the bombastic two-term Colorado Republican announced she would move her political fortunes from the state’s Western Slope to its Eastern plains and suburbs, Boebert has eclipsed her Republican primary rivals in fundraising and was 35 points ahead of the nearest one in a recent poll.
“The math just isn’t there for anybody to beat her,” Colorado GOP political consultant dikk Wadhams said as the primary approached.
Coloradans, who primarily vote by mail, have been casting their ballots for weeks. If Boebert is successful in securing the nomination Tuesday, she will be comfortably positioned for the general election in a district with a 13-point Republican advantage, according to the Cook Political Report.
Boebert, who first became known on the political stage for her vocal support of gun rights, has gained national recognition over the years for such attention-grabbing antics such as tweeting “Today is 1776” on the day of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack and booing President Biden during the State of the Union. Friday, she received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who called her a “trusted America First Fighter.”
While she has toned down her confrontational style, Boebert remains a member of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, which often clashes with party leadership, drawing the support of voters angry at the status quo. Retirements have left all three of Colorado’s GOP districts without incumbents this year, amid a slew of planned Republican exits that included many dealmakers and could further empower the anti-leadership wing.
In Douglas County, a wealthy suburb of Denver that makes up nearly half of the district’s Republicans, several voters pulling in to cast or drop off a ballot next to the bleachers of the local fairgrounds were supportive of Boebert.
“I know she’s controversial, but she has a lot of spirit and she’ll fight for what’s important,” said Charlie VanderLinden, a Castle Rock retiree who said national issues including immigration and crime led her to vote for Boebert. VanderLinden was one of the few people who chose to vote in person, because she said she didn’t trust her mail-in ballot.
Rival GOP candidate Deborah Flora, a radio host who has received several high-profile endorsements in the race, said it isn’t over yet. She noted that the poll showing Boebert far ahead of the others in the race still showed a minority of the district supporting the congresswoman and the bulk of voters undecided.
“That shows this is very fluid,” Flora said. “We’re hearing that there’s a lot of people wanting to move away from drama and dysfunction.”
Boebert’s eastward move came after she barely retained her seat in 2022, in the state’s Third Congressional District where voters, while Republican leaning, had grown weary of her negative headlines and tight alignment with Trump.
In Colorado’s eastern Fourth District—the most conservative in a state that has become progressively bluer in recent cycles—Boebert initially faced skepticism. She endured accusations of carpetbagging, and some voters were turned off by an incident in which she was removed from a Denver theater, with video footage showing her vaping and groping her date during the musical “Beetlejuice.” But she had widespread star power in a crowded field of lesser-known candidates.
In March, retiring Rep. Ken Buck announced that he would resign his seat immediately, forcing a special election for the last months of his term. The move was widely seen as the best opportunity for Boebert detractors to spur momentum for someone else, as the congresswoman opted not to participate in the special election.
Rather than elevating one of Boebert’s opponents, however, Republicans opted to nominate Greg Lopez, a former mayor of Parker, Colo., who vowed to hold the seat for only six months until January 2025 and not seek the nomination for the general election. Voting for that special election is happening simultaneously with the regular congressional primary.
Polling analysis in February by research firm Kaplan Strategies found that Boebert could lose if her opposition coalesced around a single challenger. This month, with six candidates still in the race, the firm found 40% of likely voters in the primary support Boebert and her opponents remain largely unknown, with none netting more than 5% support.
The firm also found that Boebert had significantly improved her favorability rating, to 47% from 38% among Republican voters.
Drew Sexton, a campaign spokesman for the congresswoman, said she was feeling good about the race and credited her work on the ground with helping answer voter concerns. “This was not necessarily a given,” he said. “People have seen she’s put in the work.”
Voter Carolyn Smith, a retired church volunteer, said the sheer persistence of Boebert’s campaign materials, and a generally positive view of her politics, led her to overlook the congresswoman’s controversies and cast a vote for her.
“Some things you have to let slide,” Smith said.
Wadhams, the political consultant, said that while he expects Boebert to prevail both Tuesday and in November, he will be closely watching her margin in a district that her predecessor won by 24 points. A narrower margin in the general election could signal tougher races in the future.
“We, Republicans, could find ourselves in the same position in 2026 as when she was in the Third District,” he said. “She all of a sudden makes a Republican district vulnerable.”
Write to Elizabeth Findell at
elizabeth.findell@wsj.com