DrBanneker
Space is the Place
So the 2023 consolidated birth number data is out from the CDC. I was going to do a post on IR births (Blacks still lowest but fastest growing) and such but I found something interesting regarding births by education and the immigrant backgrounds of mothers.
Birth certificates track whether the mother (but not the father) was born in the US or not. So I looked at 2023 data for Black couples (both people are Black) and education by birth location. What is interesting is that while Black immigrants are only 10% of the US Black population, Black families with a Black immigrant mother birthed 24% of all non-mixed Black children in 2023. So they have a higher fertility. It is unknown what percent of the fathers are domestic born or immigrant but it is obviously a mix. Second gen Black folks then will likely be at least 1 out of 4 of all kids with two Black parents in the coming generation. Combine this with about 1 out of 6 in the coming generation being mixed, it seems the traditional "ADOS/FBA" parentage will only be about 64% of Blacks in the next generation.
On one hand, the overwhelming majority of Black kids born to parents with little to no education have immigrant moms. Then it dips and starts increasing again towards the higher end of education. Basically, for all education levels from bachelor's on up, on average about a third of the kids born to Black couples have an immigrant mom (and probably usually an immigrant dad). At the highest level, about 37% of kids from Black families with a highly educated (MD/JD/PhD) Black mom are from an immigrant mom.
Despite the diaspora wars etc., the next generation of Blacks may be more like the 1940s and 1950s Whites who had a bunch of newly assimilated immigrants and an expanded idea of "White". There will probably have to be an expanded idea of "Black" unless we want to be riddled with tribalism.
There is also a large implication for the next generation in higher education. Black kids from traditional backgrounds will not only compete against top tier immigrant Blacks but a large number of their own American cohort will come from the background of at least one immigrant parent. This does not count the children of second gen kids who are US born. Benign neglect has been a bytch but it could be worse if the educated and upper class of Black folks has a huge component that may or may not identify with the traditional Black struggle. Don't get me wrong, most Black immigrants do, but the whole ADOS/FBA thing may be seen has a mark of lower class in an internal Black caste system if we aren't careful and try to plan now.
Birth certificates track whether the mother (but not the father) was born in the US or not. So I looked at 2023 data for Black couples (both people are Black) and education by birth location. What is interesting is that while Black immigrants are only 10% of the US Black population, Black families with a Black immigrant mother birthed 24% of all non-mixed Black children in 2023. So they have a higher fertility. It is unknown what percent of the fathers are domestic born or immigrant but it is obviously a mix. Second gen Black folks then will likely be at least 1 out of 4 of all kids with two Black parents in the coming generation. Combine this with about 1 out of 6 in the coming generation being mixed, it seems the traditional "ADOS/FBA" parentage will only be about 64% of Blacks in the next generation.
On one hand, the overwhelming majority of Black kids born to parents with little to no education have immigrant moms. Then it dips and starts increasing again towards the higher end of education. Basically, for all education levels from bachelor's on up, on average about a third of the kids born to Black couples have an immigrant mom (and probably usually an immigrant dad). At the highest level, about 37% of kids from Black families with a highly educated (MD/JD/PhD) Black mom are from an immigrant mom.
Despite the diaspora wars etc., the next generation of Blacks may be more like the 1940s and 1950s Whites who had a bunch of newly assimilated immigrants and an expanded idea of "White". There will probably have to be an expanded idea of "Black" unless we want to be riddled with tribalism.
There is also a large implication for the next generation in higher education. Black kids from traditional backgrounds will not only compete against top tier immigrant Blacks but a large number of their own American cohort will come from the background of at least one immigrant parent. This does not count the children of second gen kids who are US born. Benign neglect has been a bytch but it could be worse if the educated and upper class of Black folks has a huge component that may or may not identify with the traditional Black struggle. Don't get me wrong, most Black immigrants do, but the whole ADOS/FBA thing may be seen has a mark of lower class in an internal Black caste system if we aren't careful and try to plan now.
Education | % of births from two Black (alone) parents - BW domestic born | % of births from two Black (alone) parents - BW foreign born |
8th grade or less | 12.2% | 87.8% |
9th through 12th grade with no diploma | 71% | 29% |
High school graduate or GED completed | 81.1% | 18.9% |
Some college credit, but not a degree | 84% | 16% |
Associate degree (AA, AS) | 74.8% | 25.2% |
Bachelor's degree (BA, AB, BS) | 67.5% | 32.5% |
Master's degree (MA, MS, MEng, MEd, MSW, MBA) | 71.4% | 28.6% |
Doctorate (PhD, EdD) or Professional Degree (MD, DDS, DVM, LLB, JD) | 62.8% | 37.2% |
