godkiller
"We are the Fury"
Derek Carr garbage time analysis taken from Reddit:
"Garbage time skewed Carr's stats considerably.
Not just 6 TDs, he improved his yardage and efficiency stats too.
Defining garbage time as trailing by 9 or more points when starting a drive with less than 5 minutes to play (a situation where the defense doesn't mind allowing a dink and dunk TD drive that bleeds the block), the Raiders had 6 TD drives in garbage time last year, while the rest of the league combined had only 24.
They had 14 drive opportunities that met those criteria, meaning they scored on 43% of their drives in garbage time -- http://pfref.com/tiny/wO0ac -- (Packers were #1 in TD scoring per drive for the season as a whole at 33%).
The Raiders 6 garbage time TD drives -- http://pfref.com/tiny/hHAOb -- averaged 10.2 plays per drive and covered 76.7 yards in 2:21. That's 460 yards in total.
Oakland ran 81 passing plays (including sacks and some plays where McGloin was the QB late in the Miami game) in garbage time, the most in the league -- http://pfref.com/tiny/JsN5r -- and 12 rushing plays (including 3 by Carr) in that situation -- http://pfref.com/tiny/Nm6ej
Considering the Carr rushes as scrambles that were probably called passes, that means they had 84 pass plays compared to 9 run plays in garbage time, nearly a 90% pass rate.
No surprise that Carr put up the biggest numbers of attempts and yardage in the league in garbage time --http://pfref.com/tiny/JsN5r . Here are his stats: 42/68 (61.8%) for 444 yards (6.5 YPA), 6 TDs, 2 INTs, PR 97.9
Compared to his stats for the year as a whole, those numbers are almost all better (the INT% alone is worse).
Removing the garbage time numbers, Carr's stats otherwise: 302/531 (56.9%) for 2826 yards (5.32 YPA), 15 TDs, 10 INTs, PR 73.2
Carr's YPA was already one of the worst in league history, especially compared to the league average in that given year.
Looking for all QBs with 300+ attempts since 1970, Carr had the 16th lowest YPA with 5.46 (one of only 81 QBs to finish with a YPA below 6.1, what Vikings fans can think of as the Christian Ponder line) -- http://pfref.com/tiny/gV08P. On that table, a YPA of 5.32 (Carr without the bump in his stats from garbage time) would tie AJ Feeley for the 10th worst YPA season of all time.
Adjusting that same search to control for era (normalized against the league average YPA for each given year), Carr's 5.46 YPA is converted to a YPA+ (YPA index) of 61 -- where 100 is average. That's 3rd worst in league history --http://pfref.com/tiny/ddXBM -- behind only Rusty Hilger 1988 and Mark Rypien 1993 (Vikings fans, Ponder 2012 ends up 35th).
Take away Carr's yardage from garbage time, and he would've had the worst YPA+ season of all time.
"Garbage time skewed Carr's stats considerably.
Not just 6 TDs, he improved his yardage and efficiency stats too.
Defining garbage time as trailing by 9 or more points when starting a drive with less than 5 minutes to play (a situation where the defense doesn't mind allowing a dink and dunk TD drive that bleeds the block), the Raiders had 6 TD drives in garbage time last year, while the rest of the league combined had only 24.
They had 14 drive opportunities that met those criteria, meaning they scored on 43% of their drives in garbage time -- http://pfref.com/tiny/wO0ac -- (Packers were #1 in TD scoring per drive for the season as a whole at 33%).
The Raiders 6 garbage time TD drives -- http://pfref.com/tiny/hHAOb -- averaged 10.2 plays per drive and covered 76.7 yards in 2:21. That's 460 yards in total.
Oakland ran 81 passing plays (including sacks and some plays where McGloin was the QB late in the Miami game) in garbage time, the most in the league -- http://pfref.com/tiny/JsN5r -- and 12 rushing plays (including 3 by Carr) in that situation -- http://pfref.com/tiny/Nm6ej
Considering the Carr rushes as scrambles that were probably called passes, that means they had 84 pass plays compared to 9 run plays in garbage time, nearly a 90% pass rate.
No surprise that Carr put up the biggest numbers of attempts and yardage in the league in garbage time --http://pfref.com/tiny/JsN5r . Here are his stats: 42/68 (61.8%) for 444 yards (6.5 YPA), 6 TDs, 2 INTs, PR 97.9
Compared to his stats for the year as a whole, those numbers are almost all better (the INT% alone is worse).
Removing the garbage time numbers, Carr's stats otherwise: 302/531 (56.9%) for 2826 yards (5.32 YPA), 15 TDs, 10 INTs, PR 73.2
Carr's YPA was already one of the worst in league history, especially compared to the league average in that given year.
Looking for all QBs with 300+ attempts since 1970, Carr had the 16th lowest YPA with 5.46 (one of only 81 QBs to finish with a YPA below 6.1, what Vikings fans can think of as the Christian Ponder line) -- http://pfref.com/tiny/gV08P. On that table, a YPA of 5.32 (Carr without the bump in his stats from garbage time) would tie AJ Feeley for the 10th worst YPA season of all time.
Adjusting that same search to control for era (normalized against the league average YPA for each given year), Carr's 5.46 YPA is converted to a YPA+ (YPA index) of 61 -- where 100 is average. That's 3rd worst in league history --http://pfref.com/tiny/ddXBM -- behind only Rusty Hilger 1988 and Mark Rypien 1993 (Vikings fans, Ponder 2012 ends up 35th).
Take away Carr's yardage from garbage time, and he would've had the worst YPA+ season of all time.
