Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Next five: Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks; Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors; Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks; Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Chicago Bulls
Ellis and Thompson have both shot up the rankings since the summer. Ellis has replaced many of his bad 3-point attempts with drives to the basket, and he's thriving in Dallas. Thompson has been much more efficient inside the arc, and his defensive profile is beginning to live up to his reputation.

Also notable: Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers (17); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (18); Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (25); Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets (26); Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks (31)

Stephenson is having his best season by far, but he's still dragged down by his replacement-level first three seasons in the league. As is, Stephenson's 15.0 PER is exactly league average, and he probably has more value to the Pacers than he would have on another team. Gordon is having a solid season, but on the guard-rich Pelicans roster, he's taking on less of the load. Gordon's usage rate is down 6.5 percent from last season. Beal was forecast to be one of this season's breakout players and while he has shown flashes, he has done little overall to augment his great 3-point shooting.

How Top 10 rankings were derived

1. Players are based on TrueWARP, which is an attempt to measure the current actual value of each player's performance at this point of their career. The "WARP" part of the moniker comes from wins above replacement, while the "True" was added because you have to call it something. Henry Abbott was not consulted during the process of naming this metric, but hopefully he won't mind.

2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.

3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it. Obviously in the real world, the durability issues regarding players like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Brook Lopez have to be carefully considered.

4. Grouping players by position is always an inexact science, but I focused on how players have been deployed this season. The stats website 82games.com uses play-by-play data to track the percentage of time a player is used at each position, and I've used that as the basis for my grouping. Position classification is nebulous, but think of it like this: Players occupy a certain space on the floor, and the space they are assigned is usually determined by the players they share the court with. So Carmelo Anthony may be a natural 3, but the majority of the time the Knicks put him in lineups in which he is a 4.

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...y-kevin-durant-unseated-lebron-james-mvp-hunt

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...y-kevin-durant-unseated-lebron-james-mvp-hunt

Kevin Durant's torrid MVP pace

LeBron James, you officially have company.

James might be the best basketball player on the planet, but so far this season, someone else has been better by almost any measure.

And his name is Kevin Wayne Durant.

James led the NBA in player efficiency rating for most of the season by a wide margin and generally hasn't been challenged in that metric for years. But Durant, in his age-25 season, has finally closed the gap and eclipsed James' rate after a ridiculous weekend of hooping. Durant torched the Minnesota Timberwolves for 48 points and seven assists in a narrow victory on Saturday and then put up 21 and eight assists in just 27 minutes of action during a blowout win the very next day against the visiting Boston Celtics. Pity the Utah Jazz, who face Durant's wrath Tuesday.

Glance at the PER leaderboard and you'll see that Durant is now king with a 29.1 rating, which currently betters James' rate of 29.0. Remember, PER is a per-minute metric that adjusts for playing time, so the fact that Durant has played an extra game doesn't affect the standings. WARP, the all-in-one metric of my Per Diem colleague Kevin Pelton, also puts Durant in the lead with a 9.0 rating. Win shares, found at Basketball-Reference.com, point to Durant as the season's best as well.

Traditional numbers also gush about Durant's campaign. So far, Durant has been the NBA's scoring leader by far with 29.0 points per game (only Kevin Love is within striking distance, at 26.4), but he's shooting 49.6 percent from the floor, 42 percent from downtown and 88.4 percent from the free throw line. Not only that, Durant continues to expand his game in other areas, pulling down rebounds (12 percent of all available boards) and collecting assists (assisting an estimated 23.4 percent of his teammates' baskets while on the floor) at career-high rates.

Put it all together and you have the NBA's finest player thus far, even better than James, whose shooting efficiency is still at an all-time rate although the rest of his numbers are down. Looking at the big picture, the Thunder remain the class of a loaded Western Conference with a sparkling 27-7 record and haven't missed a step without Russell Westbrook, who has missed OKC's past six games after getting his right knee scoped Dec. 27. Since the bad news on Westbrook, the Thunder have gone 4-2 with narrow defeats at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers and the Brooklyn Nets.

And here's the thing about the Westbrook injury: The numbers say Durant hasn't missed his co-pilot at all. In fact, Durant has been playing at superhuman levels without his star point guard. In the past six games, Durant is averaging 32.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists on 51.9 percent shooting from the floor and 40.5 percent shooting from downtown. This follows a fascinating trend that has been true all season: Durant has played much better with Westbrook on the bench.

Get this: According to the NBA's StatsCube database, Durant has put up a 35.4 PER in the 488 minutes with Westbrook riding pine.

I repeat, 35.4 PER.

Here are Durant's per-36-minutes numbers this season as well as his PER, usage rate and true shooting percentage depending on whether Westbrook is in or out of the game.

MinsPtsRebAstPERUSG%TS%
Westbrook off48831.19.44.635.433.765.1
Westbrook on78925.77.04.825.428.361.6


The highest PER figure of all time, by the way, is 31.8, set by Wilt Chamberlain in 1962-63, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Durant has exceeded that and then some with Westbrook sidelined.

In those situations, Durant has become more prolific and more deadly with his shot, posting a LeBron-like 65.1 true shooting percentage (a shooting percentage that incorporates free throw shooting and the added value of 3-pointers) and a 33.7 percent usage rate, which would lead the league. His rebounding numbers jump to 9.4 boards per 36 minutes, which make sense given that Westbrook is an elite rebounder at his position.

So what happens to that number when Westbrook checks into the game? Durant's numbers slide pretty much across the board.

Durant's PER drops to a 25.4 figure, which would rank eighth in the league. His true shooting percentage drops from 65.1 percent to a less-ridiculous-but-still-really-good 61.6 percent. His rebounding numbers fall to just seven boards every 36 minutes and his usage rate drops to 28.3 as he shares the ball with Westbrook, who actually has the highest usage rate in the NBA at 31.9 percent.

But the big thing here is that the Thunder, as a team, have been able to weather the storm without Westbrook. Durant's numbers are way up, but more importantly, the Thunder's offense looks nothing like the overwhelmed squad that the Memphis Grizzlies mauled in the playoffs last season.

In the Western Conference semifinals, the Thunder put up just 95.4 points per 100 possessions in the 4-1 defeat and generally looked overwhelmed by the Griz. Sure, Durant & Co. got away with simple stuff against the Houston Rockets in the first round, but against an elite defense with the benefit of playoff prep, the Westbrook-less Thunder got smoked.

This season's a different story. The Thunder are scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions with Durant on the floor and Westbrook off of it, which is actually slightly better than their offensive efficiency with the two playing together (107.0).

Why no drop-off?

For one, Westbrook wasn't sharp immediately upon arrival this season, so even with Westbrook the Thunder weren't exactly running on all cylinders. Secondly, the Thunder have had an entire offseason to adjust to the hypothetical of a world without Westbrook, unlike the postseason run. Preparation is kind of a big deal.

Together, the salaries of Jackson, Lamb and Adams combine for less than what the Timberwolves are paying Martin this season. That's how you build a roster on a tight budget.

Lastly and most importantly, the development from third-year point guard Reggie Jackson, who has been one of the league's most improved players this season, has changed the game. No longer can opposing defenses constantly throw four players onto Durant and expect to live to tell the story. Jackson's outing on Sunday, when he scored a career-high 27 points, wasn't a fluke; Jackson has been brilliant on both ends so far playing off of Durant and vice versa.

Multiple times in Sunday's game, even Avery Bradley looked helpless trying to stay in front of Jackson as the rest of the C's defense kept its eyes on Durant. With three treys on Sunday, Jackson has raised his 3-point conversion rate to a solid 33 percent and has already made more 3-balls than he did all of last season in 129 fewer minutes.

Jackson isn't the only member of Durant's supporting cast who has kept defenses more honest. Rookie Steven Adams, who was drafted using Houston's pick in the James Harden deal, has also given Scott Brooks even more reason not to play Kendrick Perkins, though the veteran still inexplicably starts for an elite team. Jeremy Lamb, the Kevin Martin successor, is scoring 17 points per 36 minutes and drilling 40 percent of his 3s.

Together, the salaries of Jackson, Lamb and Adams combine for less than what the Timberwolves are paying Martin this season. That's how you build a roster on a tight budget.

In the end, Durant has taken the lead in the MVP race thanks in no small part to the improvement of his teammates. They allow him to do his MVP-caliber work even without Westbrook. A rising tide raises all ships in basketball as well. Though the Thunder will need Westbrook for the title run, the ever-growing talents of Durant have kept Oklahoma City afloat. If things hold, Durant won't finish second behind James in the MVP vote yet again. For now, Durant has James beaten with better numbers and, with Westbrook out, a better story.

 

[GreatestLaker]

11 most interesting trade targets
Looking for a shooting big, wing defender or high-volume scorer?

Luol Deng | SF | Chicago Bulls

The next few months could determine if the Bulls are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. If they decide to make Deng available, there will be plenty of suitors for a two-time All-Star who doubles as an expiring contract. TheCleveland Cavaliers, for example, might see Deng as a low-risk option who allows them to compete for a playoff spot this season while maintaining the ability to change directions next summer.

They called it.

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/travis-haney/post?id=1678

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...layoffs-biggest-coaching-fears-denver-broncos

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/travis-haney/post?id=1678

Takeaways: Picks for the 2014 playoff
PASADENA, Calif. -- So long, BCS. Hello, College Football Playoff.

That’s where we begin the BCS version of Takeaways, after witnessing the Florida State Seminoles beat the Auburn Tigers 34-31 in a tremendous final game to send off the BCS.

Who will be the first participants in the final four? Will FSU or Auburn return? Will there be a surprise team (hint: I have one from the left coast)? Which team is the SEC's best chance, and will it get two teams in?

Other Takeaways include a potential pitfall for the playoff selection committee, the next Jameis Winston storyline and where Louisville and Penn State go from here.

1. A look ahead at the 2014 playoff

Who ya got? Here's a sneak peek at my early picks for the four-team bracket.

1. Florida State Seminoles
If you bring back the Heisman winner to a national championship team, chances are you're going to again be a factor. FSU will have plenty to replace, including important defensive leaders such as linebacker Christian Jones and nickelback Lamarcus Joyner. But Jimbo Fisher's past four recruiting classes have been ranked an average of fourth, according to RecruitingNation, so talent gets replaced with more talent. Plus, Fisher seems to have hit home runs with his new staff hires, particularly defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt.

Oh, and then there's another year of Winston (before what our NFL draft experts believe will likely be his No. 1 overall selection in the 2015 NFL draft). Perhaps we will learn just how good he is if top targets Kelvin Benjamin, Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary turn pro. With third-leading receiver Kenny Shaw exhausting his eligibility, 5-foot-7 true freshman Levonte "Kermit" Whitfield, whose fourth-quarter 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown played a critical role in Monday night's outcome, could be the next star receiver in the offense.

"It's a statement," Whitfield told me, referring to the season to again elevate the program. "It says a lot about where we are and where we’re going."

Title path is another reason you have to like the Seminoles in ’14. Who will be their chief ACC competition? Clemson, without QB Tajh Boyd and WRs Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant, sure looks as if it will take a step back. Louisville will enter the conference with a new coach and without this season's star QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Miami struggled late in the year, but at least it appears to have kept head coach Al Golden (even if buzz connecting him and the open Penn State head-coaching job remains).

It’s difficult to envision a conference team beating the Noles, let alone taking the league crown from them. They open with a neutral-site game against Oklahoma State, another team replacing a ton of players, and later play pseudo-ACC opponent Notre Dame at home. They figure to start the season at the top of the polls, and it's hard to find a game (as we look in January, mind you) where they won't be favored.


2. Ohio State Buckeyes
I have held all along that the Buckeyes, close as they were in 2013, were built for '14.

The talented 2013 freshman class that Urban Meyer brought in (ranked third in the nation according to ESPN's RecruitingNation) had bright spots, such as Joey Bosa at defensive end, but it'll really start to have an impact next season. The defense could quickly go from liability to strength, with young players such as Bosa, safety Vonn Bell and end Noah Spence becoming bigger pieces. Braxton Miller's decision to return was obviously huge to the team's success, though the staff simply has to figure out ways to limit the number of hits he takes when he runs. Carlos Hyde will be sorely missed, but the running back position could get more versatile and dynamic with a bigger role for sophomore Dontre Wilson.

The schedule isn't much tougher than the one that was mostly ripped in '13, although Virginia Tech visits Columbus and the Buckeyes do have to travel to avenge their Big Ten title game loss to Michigan State. I see a team that has likely learned a lot from the past two seasons and can build on that for a sustained run.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Another season-long duel between Alabama and Auburn will manifest itself in 2014. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see the Tide and Tigers playing in another ultimate Iron Bowl, the winner advancing to Atlanta -- and eventually the playoff (both participants in this year's game could have made it to a four-team playoff, were there one in effect for 2013).

I give Alabama the edge because the game is in Tuscaloosa and, let's face it, following up a season like this one will be difficult for the Tigers. I agree with AD Jay Jacobs that they won't again be a "one-hit wonder" and sink back to the pack, but it will be tougher playing with expectations when there were none in 2013 (or 2010, for that matter). It's a different challenge altogether.

As for Bama, yes, there will be a lot of roster turnover -- including the QB position. But that's not always a bad thing. The thud of a 2010 season created great hunger for Nick Saban and the Tide, and it resulted in consecutive titles. I'd expect a similar edge to return for Bama, and there's still plenty of talent abound. Did you see running back Derrick Henry against Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl (eight carries, 100 yards, 1 TD)? He was a freshman who couldn’t even get on the field, given the other talent in front of him on the depth chart. That's alarming, and yet another reminder of just how deep and talented the Crimson Tide are.


4. UCLA Bruins
Every season has its surprises -- see Auburn in '13, Notre Dame in '12 -- and I believe the Bruins have a great shot to be that team in '14. They held on to their coach, Jim Mora, and their quarterback, Brett Hundley, when both seemed unlikely in the past week or so. Those close to the Texas coaching hunt believe Mora was the candidate who had Longhorns athletic director Steve Patterson and president Bill Powers most excited (they announced the hire of Louisville's Charlie Strong this week). Hundley was rated as one of the top QB prospects by our draft analysts, and I had a hunch that his size (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) would have given him the chance to vault even higher.

Mora has won 19 games in his first two seasons, including 12 in a very tough league. What I know, too: The Bruins have played a whole bunch of younger players at key positions, including both lines and the secondary, and they are a very talented group. With building experience -- and a blossoming star in linebacker and part-time running back Myles Jack -- I like them to win the Pac-12.

Some will be higher on Oregon and Stanford, but those teams will have more questions in 2014 than they have the past two seasons. UCLA is on the way up.

What would early selections for the playoff be without some game predictions as well? UCLA upsets FSU, Alabama knocks out Ohio State. Alabama defeats UCLA in the title game, reasserting itself and the SEC in the first edition of the playoff.

 

[Skooby]

2. Are Auburn and FSU built for the long haul?

As I indicated above, it would come as a surprise to me if neither Auburn nor FSU are a part of the first playoff. Really, both will enter the year as favorites to return and potentially play for another title. I'd sign up for it, if it could be as entertaining as Monday's game.

An Auburn coach's wife dried her kids' eyes after Monday night's loss and reminded them that the Tigers weren't even supposed to be at the title game, or anywhere near it. Gus Malzahn, the national coach of the year, was able to milk quite a bit from a roster that didn't look close to being national championship-caliber in the preseason, but really came together as the 2013 campaign unfolded. And seeing as how it's a younger team than most that advance this far, with a lot of key up-and-comers coming back, there's a lot of promise for this program in 2014 and beyond.

That should be a pretty scary thought to Alabama fans, or anyone in the SEC. (How good will the SEC West be going forward? Think about this: The division currently has five of its teams in the top 14 of ESPN RecruitingNation's 2014 class rankings.) As long as this staff stays together, Auburn should remain a real threat. The Tigers are systematically sound and their coaches are both innovative and adaptive. There will be a lot of continuity in what the Tigers do next season. You saw good and bad moments Monday from quarterback Nick Marshall, and he can certainly improve in his second year. As crazy as it sounds, he'll be the first college QB to work with Malzahn for a second season. Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams look like future stars on the defensive line. A team that was a mystery even as late as November learned a lot about itself, and its incredibly bright coaches, by the New Year.

"It gives us confidence," Marshall said of a season that included nine more wins than the previous one. "With this team that we've got, we believe we can get back to this point."

And maybe one step further, where FSU just ventured. I thought Malzahn and defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson were sharp enough to make Auburn a factor -- I said it as far back as a year ago -- but I never imagined it would amount to this, coming to the precipice of a national championship. In fact, the Tigers will enter the offseason feeling as if they outplayed the FSU team that did win the title.

As far as the Seminoles, Karlos Williams could emerge as a star now at running back with fewer carries to share. On defense, the presence of sophomores Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams (whose interception of Marshall in the second half was huge for the Noles) and freshmen Nate Andrews and Jalen Ramsey will help compensate for several key personnel losses in the secondary. The line will be terrific, with Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards Jr. back for their junior seasons.

3. So how's this playoff going to work again?
This wasn't discussed much, but the new playoff folks -- especially the selection committee -- really dodged a bullet that this wasn't the first year of the new system.

The 1-2 would have worked out rather fluidly, as we know. But the 3-4? It would have been a mess, a hypothetical debacle that some of us bantered about before Monday's title game. We agreed that Stanford, by virtue of its schedule and winning the most difficult conference in the country, would likely have been the No. 3 seed. But who would the No. 4 seed have been? A Michigan State team that had played virtually no one until the conference title game, one that didn’t fully identify itself until the Rose Bowl win over Stanford? Or Alabama, the two-time defending champs but a team that didn't win its division or league (just as it did two seasons ago when it won the BCS title)?

I’m inclined to believe the committee will favor conference champs from power leagues, even though it has said conference champions will not earn automatic admission just based on that fact. But it would have been very difficult to leave out an Alabama team (pre-Sugar Bowl loss) that had just one loss in the SEC -- on a last-second TD to another team in the field -- and had the recent championship success that it has enjoyed.

The committee had better hope for smoother sailing, or disgruntlement could prompt an expansion to eight teams as fast as anything to do with money.

4. The story of the spring: Winston playing baseball

Prepare yourself for the inevitability that the Heisman Trophy winner will play college baseball this spring. Winston already has hinted at it, and it's unlikely anyone will deter him. Some will have a problem with it, and it's likely to become a "thing" during the spring, but you have to remember that Winston went to FSU in large part because he wanted to play baseball. He's passionate about it.

It's far from the norm that a Heisman winner would split his time like that, even the spring. But, you know, the FSU coaching staff signed off on it. It knows the "other" sport is a big reason why he landed there; many of the team's assistants didn’t think they had a chance at the Birmingham-area native. So they'll live if he wants to platoon.

It might make NFL GMs and scouts nervous, but it'll likely be his last time to play anything other than football.

5. What’s next for Louisville and Penn State?

The groundswell for bringing back former Louisville coach Bobby Petrino, who is at Western Kentucky after his firing because of off-field issues at Arkansas, is already building at Louisville, but AD Tom Jurich's recent track record has been to hire high-profile coordinators for their first head-coaching jobs. Jurich struck gold with that in the cases of Petrino and Strong. Could Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris be the next standard for the Cardinals, someone who could pick the program up where it is and carry it into this new, ACC era?

I'm sure Louisville would have some concern about how long Morris, a native Texan, would stay, but the interim would likely be pleasant. Morris is overdue for a head job. Similarly, Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi would be a nice fit; he's likewise overdue for a promotion to have his own program. In fact, those I talk with believe Narduzzi would be a better candidate at Penn State than those it's more seriously considering, including former Titans coach Mike Munchak. Munchak, who has never coached in college, has insisted that he would be fine making that switch, but why not go with someone who not only knows college ball but the league in which PSU plays? Like Bill O'Brien, Narduzzi has a positive spirit about him and he wouldn't be looking to return to the NFL in a year.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...layoffs-biggest-coaching-fears-denver-broncos

Biggest coaching fears for Denver

In my 30-plus years as a player and coach, I was fortunate enough to have made the NFL playoffs many times. There is simply a different energy in the postseason, because of the finality of it: If you lose, you're going home. There is no tomorrow.

If you've been to the postseason before as a team, you recognize that. And a team like the Denver Broncos that was a Super Bowl favorite and fell short last season understands it even more. They know what to expect when they take the field against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. There is certainly increased pressure on Denver to reach the Super Bowl, and against a Chargers team that has now won five straight games, there is much for John Fox and his staff to be concerned about.

One thing Fox won't be concerned about is pressure. Pressure is an overrated concept, because there's only pressure when you're not prepared. Fox is a veteran coach, with a veteran playoff team, so they know how big this game is. And Fox's staff knows that they are unlikely to be fired if they don't win the game, so it's not like they're coaching for their jobs.

Although Denver shouldn't be nervous or lacking energy to start the game, one issue will be starting fast. You can't replicate the tempo of a playoff game in practice, and there has to be legitimate concern at falling behind early. The Chargers have been playing in playoff-type games for five weeks now. Denver's first drive is critical, even if they just get a couple of first downs, to get back into the rhythm of the game.

But the bigger concern is what happens if the Broncos aren't leading in the fourth quarter or, worse, if they're behind by more than one score. That is when Denver's players may start to feel pressure. And the reason for that is twofold: expectations and past history.

The expectations part is simple: This team is supposed to reach the Super Bowl, so losing at home in the divisional round would be a huge disappointment. And the past history refers both to what happened last season and to Peyton Manning's playoff record. Don't think those players have forgotten what happened against the Baltimore Ravens in the 2013 divisional round. That will be in the back of Manning's head, and if he thinks that he has to win the game on his own, that's when he will press and make mistakes.

Here's what Fox and Denver's coaches need to be most worried about to make sure that an upset doesn't happen:

Can they control San Diego's pass rush?

San Diego's defense has really come on the past six weeks, allowing less than 24 points in each game, and the pass rush took over the second half of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals on wild-card weekend. Defensive coordinator Joe Pagano did a fantastic job shifting fronts (3-4, 4-3, 4-2-5 nickel and others) and utilizing blitzes, especially fire zone schemes to confuse Andy Dalton.

The Chargers have the pass-rushers and athletes in Melvin Ingram, Donald Butler, Jarret Johnson and others to win one-on-one matchups and get pressure on Manning. More importantly, Manning struggles when you can get him off his spot, and Corey Liuget and Kendall Reyes have the ability to get a strong push inside. Denver can't allow San Diego to make Manning uncomfortable in the pocket.

Can they disrupt the Chargers' offensive game plan?

San Diego led the NFL in time of possession during the regular season, and successfully kept the ball away from Manning in the two regular-season meetings between the two teams, limiting his possessions. That will be the Chargers' game plan again this weekend, and Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead are two of the big third-down targets.

With Von Miller injured, Denver should move Shaun Phillips around to get him one-on-one matchups, and should also blitz to get pressure on Philip Rivers. However, when Denver blitzes, it must be sure that Woodhead is forced to pick up one or more of the blitzers. If he slips out, that will be trouble for the Broncos. Denver must also trust that Champ Bailey or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can run with Allen in man coverage, which they'll have to play if they want to bring those big blitzes. If they can't keep up with him in crossing routes, it could be a long day for Denver's defense.

In the first two meetings between these teams, the Chargers had 308 total rushing yards. San Diego likes to get the running game going with Ryan Mathews and Woodhead to keep the clock moving and time of possession in its favor, so disrupting that rhythm is vital for Denver's defensive line. The Broncos need to play some form of man coverage on the back end to get eight men in the box and stop the Chargers' rushing attack.

Will Manning force the issue?

Denver wants this game to be in the 30s or higher, because its offense is more explosive than San Diego's. Manning loves lining up in "11" personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), with Wes Welker in the slot, or "12" personnel (with an extra TE), shifting Julius Thomas out wide. Either way, he will survey what the defense is doing and look to attack inside-out.

He will keep attacking inside the numbers until the Chargers prove they can stop it. And if they stack the box to stop the run, he'll beat them deep. But he must be patient and take what the defense gives him. San Diego will mix coverages and try to limit Manning to underneath throws. If Manning gets greedy or impatient, or if San Diego builds a lead, he may try to make throws that aren't there. That's when he has made mistakes in past playoff games.

The Broncos know they have a shrinking window to win a title with Manning. While he's an unbelievable quarterback, and the playoff losses aren't all his fault (see: Rahim Moore last season), he is only 9-11 in the postseason, and eight of those losses came in the first postseason game his team played (his favorite third-down target, Welker, has had his own trouble with drops in big spots in big games).

If Denver can jump out early and hold a lead going into the fourth quarter, they should move on to the next round. But if San Diego can hang around, the ghosts of Manning's and Denver's playoff past could come out, and anything could happen. That's exactly what Fox & Co. want to avoid.

 

[GreatestLaker]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...drew-wiggins-joel-embiid-candidates-no-1-pick

@Skooby

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10268024/nba-miami-heat-sign-andrew-bynum

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/play...layoffs-weak-links-remaining-postseason-teams

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...drew-wiggins-joel-embiid-candidates-no-1-pick

@Skooby

Who should go with the top pick?

Who's No. 1?

This was supposed to be easy. Andrew Wiggins was going to be the consensus No. 1 pick, the prize of a super-loaded 2014 NBA draft.

It's been far from easy. Not only has Wiggins not quite lived up to the hype, but a number of other contenders, led by Duke's Jabari Parker, Kentucky's Julius Randle, Kansas big man Joel Embiid and Australian combo guard Dante Exum, have emerged for the No. 1 pick. Every GM has a different opinion about who would best fit his team. Every scout can pick these guys apart or sing their praises.

There are five to six players who are getting serious looks with the No. 1 pick. Though, based on my latest intel, it looks like Parker, Wiggins and Embiid are the heavy favorites to take home the No. 1 pick.

Who do you take No. 1?

With the debut of our annual Lottery Mock Draft, Insider spoke to scouts or executives from almost every team projected to be in the draft lottery in an effort to determine their individual draft order for the lottery generator.

When there is no clear No. 1 pick, teams tend to focus on team needs instead of overall talent. As we expected, that means that teams had various answers to that question.

Here's what I learned:


Milwaukee Bucks
Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

The Bucks' biggest need is a power forward who can draw a double-team, so Randle will get a long look from them. But the Bucks are also super intrigued with Parker and feel he can play both the 3 and the 4 for them. Wiggins and Exum are also possibilities, but both are riskier picks for a team that needs to show major improvement next year. Parker is the most NBA-ready player in the draft, and I think he's the favorite if Milwaukee gets the No. 1 pick.


Orlando Magic
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins

The Magic loved Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart last season and could still take him No. 1 this year. However, I'm hearing lately that the Magic believe Victor Oladipo can make the transition to the point and want to swing for the fences with a player with a huge upside like Wiggins. Wiggins is less NBA-ready than several of the other players in consideration for the No. 1 pick, but his upside is so great, the Magic would have a hard time passing on him given their developmental curve.


Utah Jazz
Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

You can write this one in stone. If the Jazz get the No. 1 pick, they're taking Parker. The Jazz have always had worries about re-signing a marquee-type draft prospect. With Parker, there wouldn't be any worries.


Sacramento Kings
Odds of winning the lottery: 11.9 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

The Kings' biggest need is at point guard, but sources say the Kings would be reluctant to pull the trigger on either Smart or Exum with the No. 1 pick. The team did just trade for Rudy Gay, but the early returns aren't great and the chances they would re-sign him long-term aren't great. Besides, in virtually every way, Parker would be an upgrade from day one and bring the sort of high-character, team-first player to the roster that the team desperately needs.


Cleveland Cavaliers
Odds of winning the lottery: 7.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Joel Embiid

Parker looked like an absolute no-brainer for the Cavs until the team traded for Luol Deng on Tuesday. Deng fills a big hole at small forward and was the high-character player they were looking to pair with Kyrie Irving. That means it's unlikely the Cavs will have much of a shot at the No. 1 pick by the end of the season. But what if they continue to stink? All signs point to the team re-signing Deng, which means the Cavs could use their pick to fill another hole. The two players to watch are Embiid and Wiggins. Wiggins would add length and athleticism to their backcourt. Embiid would give them a potential franchise center, and the Cavs are one of the teams that really believe he's worthy of the No. 1 pick.


Philadelphia 76ers
Odds of winning the lottery: 7.5 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins

The Sixers' front office can't be thrilled about that 7.5 percent chance of winning the lottery. The Sixers thought (and we thought too) they'd be closer to 25 percent than 4 percent. The team feels like it has its big man (Nerlens Noel) and point guard (Michael Carter-Williams) of the future. What the Sixers would like is a wing who can fly up and down the floor with them. Wiggins, Parker and Randle will all get looks here, but I've been hearing all year that the Sixers are all in on Wiggins.


Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins

The Knicks forfeited this pick years ago to Denver as part of the Carmelo Anthony trade. Now it will come back to bite them. The Nuggets have needs at several positions, but sources say it would likely come down to Parker and Wiggins. Give Wiggins the slight edge here. The Nuggets want a long, athletic wing to pair in the backcourt with Ty Lawson and think Wiggins might be the perfect complement.


Boston Celtics
Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

If the Celtics somehow manage to land the No. 1 pick, I think it will be hard for Danny Ainge to pass on Parker. Ainge is a fan, and while he loves to draft upside, Parker is a great long-term fit for them. Ainge can pretty easily trade Jeff Green and get more assets back, which is a bonus. The dark horse is Embiid. The Celtics need a big man, and Ainge is intrigued.


Detroit Pistons
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.5 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

With the Pistons shopping Greg Monroe so that they can move Josh Smith to the 4, the Pistons should eventually have an opening at the 3. Parker would be a great fit. Not only is he unselfish, he's also a good shooter.


Los Angeles Lakers
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.4 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Joel Embiid

The Lakers haven't found themselves in this position for a long time. If they somehow manage to snag the No. 1 pick, I wouldn't be surprised if they swing for the fences with Embiid or Wiggins. There are safer bets, but with Kobe Bryant on his last leg, they desperately need a potential star in L.A. and Embiid and Wiggins have the most "it" potential of any of the prospects in this draft.


New Orleans Pelicans
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

The Pelicans must send their pick to the 76ers if it falls between six and 30. However, if the Pelicans win the lottery, they get to keep the pick and could put the finishing touches on a team that could have dynasty potential. Put Parker on the floor with Anthony Davis and a very strong backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon, and the Pelicans are going to win a lot of basketball games for a long, long time.


Memphis Grizzlies
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.7%
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

This pick might change a bit if the Grizzlies find a taker for Zach Randolph at the trade deadline, but as of right now, it's down to Parker and Wiggins. The need for Parker (especially after the Courtney Lee trade) is higher and given the Grizzlies' title aspirations, they'll want a player who can help that cause from opening night.


Minnesota Timberwolves
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Jabari Parker

The Wolves really don't want to be in this position, but if they are there, I think you'll see them make a strong move for Parker. This team is also in win-now mode, and adding the most NBA-ready college player in the country would do wonders for its offense.


Denver Nuggets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins

The Nuggets must send the lesser of their own pick or the pick they acquired from the Knicks to the Magic. If they win the No. 1 spot from here, they would keep this pick and the Magic would get the Knicks' pick.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10268024/nba-miami-heat-sign-andrew-bynum

Should Heat sign Andrew Bynum?

Heat president Pat Riley has a thing for really tall reclamation projects.

The soft spot becomes understandable once you realize that he has coached several current or future Hall of Fame centers in his lengthy NBA career. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning all have manned a frontcourt with Riley roaming the sideline. So when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade andChris Bosh combined forces to play in Miami, and Riley needed a big man, he sought out several who were down on their luck and tried to rehabilitate them into a key cog in the Heat machine.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Erick Dampier. Eddy Curry. Ronny Turiaf. Chris Andersen. Greg Oden.

Most of the reclamation projects haven't panned out. Some did. One still is a work in progress. Is Andrew Bynum the next Riley reclamation project?

Does Bynum fit?

The Heat have been tossed around as a logical destination for Bynum and his services. After being waived by the Chicago Bulls upon arrival following his trade from Cleveland, Bynum is a free agent who can sign with any team of his choosing.

Of all the suitors -- and there are eight of them, according to ESPN's Chris Broussard -- Miami seems to have garnered the most curiosity in and around the league. They are the two-time defending champions after all. How much talent could they possibly need?

Let's pause here and throw some cold water on the Bynum-to-Miami hype. For one, the Heat already have their hands full with Oden and fellow league castoff Michael Beasley. Though Beasley came to the Heat this offseason under vastly different circumstances than Oden, the Heat have had to juggle not one, but two reclamation projects as it is. Adding Bynum would be a Riley heat check and possibly an Erik Spoelstra nightmare.

Secondly, Bynum has looked rough this season. On the whole, this is what you'd expect from a 7-foot, near-300-pounder who hadn't played basketball in a year after multiple knee injuries. The only consistency is inconsistency. Twice he has put up 20 and 10 with multiple blocks, looking like the skilled All-Star we saw in LakerLand. Other nights he shoots 0-for-11 and barely saunters back on defense, functioning as the worst version of himself.

On balance, Bynum has not been destructive. He has an above-average 15.4 player efficiency rating and he's putting up 15.1 points and 9.5 points per 36 minutes, rates which are commensurate with Roy Hibbert, though Bynum's scoring rate has been fueled by high usage rather than high efficiency. Like Hibbert, Bynum's shooting percentages are lower than you'd expect for a big man of gargantuan size, shooting 44.1 percent in his past 10 games (and that includes his 0-for-11 stinker against the Detroit Pistons).

You can consider Bynum a brittle, poor man's Hibbert at this point. Bynum isn't nearly as focused and willing on the defensive end, but he's also limited in his mobility like the Indiana big man and would be forced to protect the basket area with his size, rather than stunting pick-and-rolls. According to SportVU tracking data, opponents are shooting just 37.6 percent at the rim when Bynum is within five feet, which is one of the best rates in the league for a big man. The sample size qualifications apply, but there's no denying that Bynum is really good at being large.

That element of Bynum's game could be problematic for the Heat because he's the last big you would want in Spoelstra's system, one that predicates itself on smothering pick-and-rolls with speed. There is no bringing Bynum into that scheme. There is only temporarily abandoning it and opting for Indiana's sag-to-the-basket defense. And that might not sit well with Spoelstra.

The talent is there, but it's hard getting past the fact that Bynum represents an ill fit with the Heat's pace-and-space system. Bynum could be Oden insurance, but he's not the same player. Bynum's value tilts on the offensive end whereas Oden, if remotely healthy, is more a rebounding defensive force better aligned for Hibbert duty in the playoffs. And it's worth wondering if Bynum would be happy coming off the bench in a specialist role as it's a good bet that Spoelstra won't forgo surrounding his star trio with sharpshooters.

It's an ill fit on the books as well. After guaranteeing the contracts of Roger Mason Jr. and Beasley earlier this week, the Heat have no open roster spots and cannot waive a player without eating a contract. Yes, the Heat do still have the taxpayer's midlevel exception available, which, at full, would be $3.2 million for this season. After tax payouts, signing Bynum could cost upwards of $8 million the rest of the season because of the punitive tax structure.

Does that sound like a likely investment for a team that amnestied Mike Miller this offseason?

It's also worth pointing out that the Heat typically do not outbid other teams with salary; they outbid other teams with opportunity. This is why the taxpayer's midlevel exception is an unlikely carrot.

Remember, the Heat got Andersen on two 10-day contracts before he was signed for the rest of the season and re-signed him at a below-market deal at the minimum this offseason. And they signed Oden for the minimum as well. Ray Allen did not opt out and seek more money this offseason; he stayed under the player option. If the Heat decide to go after Bynum, expect them to play hard to get.

Ultimately, bet on Riley to bet on talent. As we've seen in the past, he's willing to take a gamble on a player looking for a rebirth. Given their capped-out status, it's hard to nab players like Bynum in the offseason for the championship run. The question is whether Bynum is willing to make the necessary sacrifices to make it work. And that goes for Spoelstra and his pace-and-space system, too.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/play...layoffs-weak-links-remaining-postseason-teams

Weakest links on playoff teams

The NFL is all about matchups and weaknesses, and this is even more true come playoff time.

Once those weaknesses are diagnosed, exploiting them is the next step, then doing so relentlessly until the opponent makes a tactical or personnel change to help cure what ails it. Of course, such changes expose another weakness, as no team is perfect.

With eight teams left in the NFL's postseason tournament, here's a look at one player from each team that is his club's weakest link -- a player that the opponent will try to exploit this weekend.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Considering Kaepernick is one of the game's most talented and athletic young quarterbacks, and has somewhat quietly had a very good season, including him here might seem a little odd. But I have to think the Panthers' plan will be to make him beat them as a pocket passer.

That's not so much a slight to Kaepernick as it is a compliment to the rest of the Niners' team. The Niners are among the most difficult rushing offenses to deal with for 60 minutes; not only is Frank Gore a great player -- and Kaepernick an obvious threat as a runner -- but they are also highly diverse in terms of personnel groupings and formations.

The shortcoming has been in the passing game this season, particularly without Michael Crabtree, who missed most of the season due to injury. When I watch Kaepernick on film, I see him particularly struggling in the red zone. This is because defenses will try to bottle him up, the field becomes smaller and his options are more limited due to the lack of space. Decisions have to be made quicker and the ball has to be more accurate in the red zone, which are things the young quarterback continues to struggle with. Red-zone woes almost derailed the 49ers' postseason hopes last week, and in a 10-9 Week 10 loss to Carolina, San Francisco could manage just three field goals as Kaepernick threw for a measly 91 yards.

The Panthers' red-zone defense ranked third in the NFL during the regular season. To that end, I could see the Panthers trying to force Kaepernick into making quicker decisions, especially in the red zone. And they may not even have to blitz to do it. The Panthers were highly effective getting to Kaepernick and forcing him to hurry in their first meeting, using four rushers much of the time. Doing so again is likely their best shot to slow down the team in the NFL with the fewest weaknesses.


Brandon LaFell, WR, Carolina Panthers

Quite simply, more is needed from LaFell. The 34-year-old Steve Smith is battling a knee injury, and his status for this game is presently up in the air. And if he does play, which seems probable, it seems unlikely that he will be as effective as usual. Even with a healthy Smith, the Panthers are a little light on difference-making receivers. Greg Olsen is an above-average receiving tight end, but not one of the more threatening players at his position, or a true No. 1 option in a passing game.

LaFell has been up and down and Ted Ginn has shown up here and there with some huge plays, but neither excel at getting away from man coverage, which the Panthers will see frequently against the 49ers, whose base coverage is "2 Man." With Cam Newton being such a dangerous runner, San Francisco might employ more zone looks or have one of its outstanding inside linebackers spy Newton, but overall, it could be a long day for the Panthers' receiving corps.

LaFell has the prerequisite size and speed for the position, but he is an average route-runner without a discernible trait that sets him apart, and he hasn't improved dramatically since entering the league. Also, while Newton is ultra-talented and is a superb playmaker, he remains inconsistent as a passer, and should be under quite a bit of pressure against San Francisco. Both teams are very strong on defense and will stay dedicated to their running games, while each quarterback makes big plays through the air and with his legs. It could come down to which team has the superior playmakers, which favors San Francisco.


Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson's play dropped off quite a bit during the final four weeks of the regular season, a stretch in which Seattle went 2-2, with Wilson averaging a meager 171 passing yards per game. His protection has been problematic for much of the season, but with his outstanding pocket presence and mobility, he was often able to make up for it. However, Wilson has been light on weapons of late.

The return of Percy Harvin could be exactly the kick-start this passing game needs, which would make Golden Tate a quality second option instead of being Wilson's No. 1. And while Baldwin is reliable and does the little things well, he is truly suited for less playing time. If Harvin proves ineffective, the Saints can put Keenan Lewison Tate and dare Wilson to feed Baldwin against lesser cover men. Baldwin is capable of exploiting such coverage, but would that be enough to outscore Drew Brees & Co.? I have my doubts.

Marshawn Lynch remains the foundation of this offense. But led by an excellent and underrated defensive line, the Saints did a great job of limiting LeSean McCoy last week. Lynch might have some tough sledding this weekend. The passing game needs to step up.


Roman Harper, S, New Orleans Saints

As noted above, the Seahawks' passing game has been quite pedestrian of late. A week's rest and Harvin's return could spark it to rebound in a big way, as could some holes in the back end of New Orleans' defense.

While the Saints rush the passer very well and should have success pressuring Wilson in this contest, injuries have done a number on their secondary. Lewis has been an exceptional addition via free agency, but after he left last week's game with a concussion, DeSean Jackson came to life. Lewis could return this weekend, but the Saints are stuck with Harper, who is a very good blitzer and is effective in the run game, but consistently gets exploited the farther away from the line of scrimmage he gets. He is a liability even against an average tight end like Zach Miller, who led the Seahawks in receiving when these teams met during the regular season.

Corey White and Rod Sweeting also are not equipped to handle a high number of snaps at the cornerback position, but could be forced to do so, which would tilt the advantage further toward Seattle.