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Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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5-on-5: Who wins Heat-Raptors? Can either team win the East?
The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors survived Game 7s to advance.
Which team has the advantage in this series? And can Dwyane Wade's Heat or Kyle Lowry's Raptors challenge for a spot in the Finals?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast how this series plays out.
1. What is the most important thing to watch in this series?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: The defensive work by the Heat's backcourt. This is a fascinating scenario where the two best wing defenders on the Heat also happen to be rookies: Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow. Can they duplicate George Hill and Paul George's success on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan? And will Erik Spoelstra let them?
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN.com: Whether Lowry and DeRozan can finally play closer to their regular-season form in the playoffs -- they're both in the bottom 25 in playoff true shooting percentage (minimum 200 FGA) since 2001. DeRozan shot a disastrous 44-for-138 in Round 1. If he doesn't improve, it'll be a short series.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The winner of this series will be determined by a battle for the paint that comes in several guises. Can Miami defend Toronto's dribble-drive game without fouling? Can Jonas Valanciunas keepHassan Whiteside occupied by muscling him and help mitigate the latter's ability to erase shots? Can Valanciunas protect the rim well enough to keep his playing time split with Bismack Biyombo heavily tilted in his favor?
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The performance of the Toronto backcourt. This looks like a much better matchup for Lowry and DeRozan to get going, because Miami's starting perimeter defenders aren't stoppers. (A cross-match withLuol Deng on DeRozan and reserves Richardson and Winslow look like Spoelstra's best options.) But DeRozan still must score in the paint over Whiteside and Lowry will have to make some 3s after shooting just 16.3 percent from downtown against the Pacers.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Which Whiteside shows up? When he's active and engaged, he's an intimidating presence in the paint and an elite finisher offensively. When he's disinterested or overly concerned with his own personal well-being, the layup lines commence undeterred and the offense bogs down. He's got an advantage over his counterparts Valanciunas and Biyombo, but only if he's out there playing the right way.
2. Fact or fiction: Playoff experience will matter in this series.
Pelton: Fiction. It might be a slight edge for the Heat, but Miami had a much bigger experience advantage in the opening round against Charlotte and still fell behind in the series 3-2. The moment is unlikely to be too big for the Raptors, whose core has a few years of playoff experience, albeit entirely in the first round.
Doolittle: Fact. The Heat have more individuals with more high-level playoff experience, but their current group hasn't been together that long. The Raptors have been together for a while but haven't experienced anything beyond the first round. Those things even out. However, Miami has an edge on the bench, where Spoelstra has more of a track record than Dwane Casey.
Elhassan: Fact. Nothing the Raptors did in the first round, even in Game 7, indicates that they should feel comfortable about their level of execution. Their two stars in DeRozan and Lowry both struggled mightily from the field and beyond the arc, and they got to the foul line a lot less (particularly DeRozan). On the other end of the floor, while Miami possesses a clear advantage in players such as Wade, Deng, Tyler Johnson and even Udonis Haslem -- who got dusted off last series -- they still rely heavily on young players such as Whiteside, Winslow and Richardson.
Engelmann: Fact. I'm generally not a big believer that playoff experience matters, but the Raptors' struggles in first-round series in which they even have home-court advantage -- three straight years -- can't just be brushed up as random occurrence anymore. On the other hand, now that they got the first-round monkey off their back it may not be an issue from now on.
Haberstroh: Fiction. While it's true that Wade, Joe Johnson and Deng have playoff experience, most of the Heat's core is making their maiden voyage to the postseason. For me, the Heat's experience edge is too small to really matter.
3. If the Heat pull off the upset, how did they do it?
Pelton: That assumes it would be an upset! A similar formula to how they beat the Hornets: a dominant performance from Whiteside controlling the paint, enough 3-point shooting to clear driving lanes for Goran Dragic and Wade and an opposing guard (or two, perhaps) missing a lot of shots like Kemba Walker did in Game 7.
Doolittle: Given recent trends I don't think it would be an upset if either team won. If Miami wins, Whiteside will have outplayed Valanciunas over the course of the series. Also, Lowry and DeRozan will have shot more like they did in the first round than they did during the season -- in terms both of accuracy and shot location.
Engelmann: Deng continued to shoot lights out from 3-point territory after hitting 51 percent of his 39 attempts in the Charlotte series. Whiteside's shot-blocking ability made it tough for Valanciunas and the whole Raptors team to score, and Joe Johnson and Wade came up clutch.
Haberstroh: Dragic has to keep attacking like he did in Game 7 against Charlotte. Not only does it save the Heat from devolving into Wade and Joe Johnson iso-ball that can strangle the offense, but it relieves the reliance on Richardson, who is battling a sore shoulder, for too many minutes in his rookie campaign.
Elhassan: "If"? "Upset"? I'm not familiar with these terms. Heat Island is right where it wants to be. With Tyler Johnson returning from a shoulder injury, the Heat have a plethora of perimeter defenders who can harass the Raptors backcourt and keep them off the line, funneling them to midrange jumpers or toward Whiteside's shot-blocking. Meanwhile, Johnson and Deng continue to reap benefits in small-ball lineups, taking advantage of slower bigs offensively while not giving up anything defensively.
4. Which team would provide a bigger challenge for the Cavs or Hawks?
Elhassan: Heat Island! For many of the reasons outlined above: Miami has been the best small-ball team in the East over the second half of the season, and the Heat are always going to enjoy an advantage on the offensive end while being able to matchup defensively.
Haberstroh: I'll say the Heat. They're 5-2 in the regular season against those teams with the two losses coming well before Thanksgiving. I still don't think I'd pick the Heat over the Cavs. (LeBron is too good.)
Engelmann: The Raptors are still the better team on paper -- Lowry is a top-10 player in the league and the Raptors' bench, plus Lowry, was a top-five unit during the regular season. Casey will have to take a long, hard look at his rotations, though. They're very suboptimal.
Doolittle: The Heat would be the tougher challenge for Cleveland, mostly because of Whiteside. The extra baggage that would come with a LeBron vs. Miami matchup would play into the Heat's favor, given their lower expectations. Still, the bottom line is whether it's the Heat or Raptors, the Cavs are going to be the heavy favorites to win the East.
Pelton: I lean Miami under the assumption the Cavaliers will be the opponent. While both teams won the season series with Cleveland 2-1, the Heat did so in more convincing fashion (albeit without LeBron on the court for one of those matchups) and I think their combination of size on the perimeter and athleticism at power forward could pose the Cavaliers some problems.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games? Why?
Haberstroh: Heat in 7. Lowry and DeRozan will rediscover their abilities to put the ball in the hoop, but it won't be enough as a disciplined Whiteside will ultimately limit their attacks into the paint.
Elhassan: Heat in 6. I'm skeptical of the Raptors' ability to consistently produce offense and they struggled to keep Indiana's anemic offense in check. Miami is better, deeper and more experienced.
Engelmann: The numbers favor the Raptors, with the most likely outcome being Raptors winning in five games. But with the Raptors struggling so mightily to close out the series against a 7-seed, my gut says this series will be closer than that. Raptors in 7.
Doolittle: Raptors in 7. Toronto's first-round difficulties are irrelevant here. The Raptors have the right mix of perimeter defenders to guard Miami's spread attack -- if Casey doesn't mess too much with Luis Scola. Also, Valanciunas will emerge as a higher-profile player because of his matchup with Whiteside. And the Raptors have that extra home game.
Pelton: Miami in 6. I've gone back and forth on this pick more than any other in the playoffs. I don't want to overreact to Toronto's series against Indiana. The Raptors have been the better team over the course of the season, and that's usually the most important factor. Still, I'm worried about Lowry's shooting and how Toronto will deal with the Heat's physical guards -- a recurring problem for the Raptors in the postseason. So, with apologies to Drake, I'm giving Miami the narrow advantage.
Yeah I read it earlier.
The Portland Trail Blazers' season is over -- a lot later than nearly anyone expected.
How do they make the leap to title contention? What's missing?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast the future for the Blazers.
1. What do you foresee and advise for the Blazers this offseason?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Staying the course. We've seen teams try to prematurely accelerate the rebuilding process after an unexpected playoff appearance (cough, cough Milwaukee), but I'd hope the Portland front office doesn't overreact to the fifth-seed status. Remember, the team's 44-38 record in 2015-16 wouldn't have even made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Honestly? Status quo. Portland needs to be patient with the growth of its players. Sure, a bona fide stretch 4 or a 3-and-D guy would be optimal. But patience is the biggest variable.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: With Moe Harkless, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard restricted free agents, the Trail Blazers can go fishing in the broader free-agent market and come back and match any outside offers for those young guys. Money isn't generally an issue in Portland, and there's a good bet the Trail Blazers will opt to retain at least two of those guys.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Blazers don't need to rush their roster building and there's no reason to overpay a free agent, though it's fine to kick the tires on someone like Al Horford or Chandler Parsons. Portland has to deal with the restricted free agencies of Leonard, Harkless and Crabbe this summer, then C.J. McCollum and Mason Plumlee next year. I'd keep them all. Most of this roster is on the upswing and the next big improvement in Portland probably stems from someone like Noah Vonleh breaking out.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Blazers have ample depth, so I think the best plan for them is to exclusively pursue first- and second-tier free agents who would actually be an upgrade on the players currently on the roster. To clear enough cap space for such players, Portland might have to let Gerald Henderson and Meyers Leonard walk, and re-sign Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless.
2. What's missing in Portland?
Arnovitz: The Trail Blazers need some paint presence/rim protection for a defense that finished the season ranked 20th overall. And no complaints if that addition had a goon-ish streak. They also could use a third scorer who can create a shot for himself, preferably one with a little more size who can hold down one of the forward spots.
Pelton: I think the playoffs have exposed a couple of shortcomings. The Blazers could use one more perimeter player who can create shots for himself or others when defenses take away Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They could also use an upgrade in terms of rim protection, though that might mean sacrificing the playmaking Mason Plumlee provided from the center spot.
Doolittle: As well as the Lillard-McCollum-Crabbe backcourt played, in the long run the Blazers are going to need a dynamic defensive presence in the middle to make it work on both ends. Also, you'd like to see a little more of an offensive standout at small forward, though I really like the way Al-Farouq Aminu has come along.
Haberstroh: An Andrew Bogut to anchor the defense. The Blazers ranked 20th in defensive rating this season and gave up a ton of fouls in the paint. A true defensive ace would allow perimeter shooters to gamble a bit more defensively, where they ranked 25th in opponent turnover rate.
Elhassan: Patience is what they need, as I mentioned, but two-way players would help as well.
3. Who should be the primary center for Portland going forward?
Pelton: Leonard doesn't provide enough rim protection, so while using him at center juices the offense, I don't think it's workable defensively on a full-time basis. Davis is a great part of a rotation, not necessarily the leader of one. Plumlee was a revelation this season but struggled as a finisher and to control the paint defensively against playoff competition.
I remain intrigued by the possibility of Hassan Whiteside playing a DeAndre Jordan-style role in pick-and-rolls with Lillard and McCollum. If Whiteside isn't a cultural fit or wants to play elsewhere, I don't see a realistic young free agent who's a clear upgrade over Plumlee.
Doolittle: Portland is positioned fairly well to woo the bigger free agents and some of the centers might be a good fit -- Horford especially, given his ability to both defend and work as a screener for Lillard and McCollum. That said, if the Blazers don't make a splash with a new center, their current crew will again share court time according to matchups.
Haberstroh: Ed Davis probably gives me the most hope, but I still don't know if he's strong enough to be a premier rim protector in the NBA. I'd take a look at Ian Mahinmi and see if he can fill that spot at a reasonable price.
Elhassan: Plumlee, because he has shown the ability to not only finish but also make decisions and make the simple pass. Perhaps he can become more sophisticated in his passing, but even at his rudimentary level it makes life easier for the Blazers' backcourt.
Arnovitz: I still think Davis can be a starting center in the NBA, provided he were paired with a 4-man who can stretch the floor and give Lillard and McCollum the driving lanes they need to get to the rim. Leonard has the size, but I'm not sold that there's enough of a defensive presence there to make it work. In that respect, he and Davis make up a respectable frontcourt, but I suspect the Trail Blazers' primary center going forward might be someone who isn't currently on the payroll.
4. Where will the 2016-17 Blazers finish in the standings?
Elhassan: Absent a major offseason acquisition, probably a seven or eight seed. That's not a knock on them, but rather acknowledgement that the Jazz dealt with serious injuries and Houston seriously underachieved.
Haberstroh: Fifth. Remarkably, this team hasn't played a 30-year-old for more than 50 minutes here in the playoffs. This entire roster is entering its prime, so they'll improve on development alone. But I worry that Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum might burn out a bit if they don't get a third scorer.
Pelton: Despite their youth, I think more likely sixth through eighth than part of the top five again. Naturally, that can change dramatically this summer, but my sense is the West's second (or perhaps) third tier will be much deeper next season than it was this season. Odds are 44 wins won't be nearly enough to finish fifth with several lottery teams likely to contend for playoff spots.
Arnovitz: This question can never be answered in a vacuum. The Warriors and Spurs are locks ahead of them next season. If the Clippers keep the core together, they're good for 50-plus wins next season. The Thunder, Rockets and Pelicans are the big wild cards here, depending on how their rosters shape up. So throw Portland into the mix with Utah, Dallas and Memphis. With all that in mind, the over-under is a 6 1/2 seed.
Doolittle: Seventh. The Blazers should be a little better, but they benefited this season from various misfortunes suffered by teams elsewhere in the West. Also, Portland will be hard-pressed to repeat the excellent health of this season's roster.
5. Fact or Fiction: Damian Lillard will win the West as a Blazer.
Arnovitz: Fiction, though not unthinkable. Figure he has 10 seasons ahead of him, and the next three are unlikely. If he can lure a big free agent to Portland, or they can aggregate some assets to trade for one, or a very high pick that becomes an elite player, they'd certainly have a puncher's chance. But size and location of market continue to be a tough hurdle for the franchise when it comes to talent acquisition.
Elhassan: This is tough, as Golden State seems to be on a path of perpetual excellence and the tough competition in the West. I'm going to lean toward fiction.
Haberstroh: Fiction. I look at Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and the duo in OKC, and just can't see Lillard coming out on top anytime soon. Sure, anything is possible, and Lillard has proved doubters wrong. But this is a 44-win team that caught a break with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul injuries. Would this even be a question if those guys were healthy? I love the Blazers' youth, but Portland's fanbase knows all-too-well that a bright future doesn't always work out as planned.
Doolittle: Fiction. Portland's young foundation is exciting and the combination of Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey overseeing things is as good as it gets. But there is just so much competition in the West and if OKC stays together, it's going to be tough to navigate through the Thunder, Warriors and Spurs any time soon.
Pelton: Fiction. It's worth remembering that over the last 16 seasons, only five different teams have won the Western Conference. The odds are against just about any team that's not already in the mix reaching that level. As much as Portland has done correctly in its post-LaMarcus Aldridge rebuild, the Blazers are still going to need a lot of good decisions and good fortune to win the West.
5-on-5: How do Damian Lillard, Blazers become title contenders?
The Portland Trail Blazers' season is over -- a lot later than nearly anyone expected.
How do they make the leap to title contention? What's missing?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast the future for the Blazers.
1. What do you foresee and advise for the Blazers this offseason?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Staying the course. We've seen teams try to prematurely accelerate the rebuilding process after an unexpected playoff appearance (cough, cough Milwaukee), but I'd hope the Portland front office doesn't overreact to the fifth-seed status. Remember, the team's 44-38 record in 2015-16 wouldn't have even made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Honestly? Status quo. Portland needs to be patient with the growth of its players. Sure, a bona fide stretch 4 or a 3-and-D guy would be optimal. But patience is the biggest variable.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: With Moe Harkless, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard restricted free agents, the Trail Blazers can go fishing in the broader free-agent market and come back and match any outside offers for those young guys. Money isn't generally an issue in Portland, and there's a good bet the Trail Blazers will opt to retain at least two of those guys.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Blazers don't need to rush their roster building and there's no reason to overpay a free agent, though it's fine to kick the tires on someone like Al Horford or Chandler Parsons. Portland has to deal with the restricted free agencies of Leonard, Harkless and Crabbe this summer, then C.J. McCollum and Mason Plumlee next year. I'd keep them all. Most of this roster is on the upswing and the next big improvement in Portland probably stems from someone like Noah Vonleh breaking out.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Blazers have ample depth, so I think the best plan for them is to exclusively pursue first- and second-tier free agents who would actually be an upgrade on the players currently on the roster. To clear enough cap space for such players, Portland might have to let Gerald Henderson and Meyers Leonard walk, and re-sign Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless.
2. What's missing in Portland?
Arnovitz: The Trail Blazers need some paint presence/rim protection for a defense that finished the season ranked 20th overall. And no complaints if that addition had a goon-ish streak. They also could use a third scorer who can create a shot for himself, preferably one with a little more size who can hold down one of the forward spots.
Pelton: I think the playoffs have exposed a couple of shortcomings. The Blazers could use one more perimeter player who can create shots for himself or others when defenses take away Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They could also use an upgrade in terms of rim protection, though that might mean sacrificing the playmaking Mason Plumlee provided from the center spot.
Doolittle: As well as the Lillard-McCollum-Crabbe backcourt played, in the long run the Blazers are going to need a dynamic defensive presence in the middle to make it work on both ends. Also, you'd like to see a little more of an offensive standout at small forward, though I really like the way Al-Farouq Aminu has come along.
Haberstroh: An Andrew Bogut to anchor the defense. The Blazers ranked 20th in defensive rating this season and gave up a ton of fouls in the paint. A true defensive ace would allow perimeter shooters to gamble a bit more defensively, where they ranked 25th in opponent turnover rate.
Elhassan: Patience is what they need, as I mentioned, but two-way players would help as well.
3. Who should be the primary center for Portland going forward?
Pelton: Leonard doesn't provide enough rim protection, so while using him at center juices the offense, I don't think it's workable defensively on a full-time basis. Davis is a great part of a rotation, not necessarily the leader of one. Plumlee was a revelation this season but struggled as a finisher and to control the paint defensively against playoff competition.
I remain intrigued by the possibility of Hassan Whiteside playing a DeAndre Jordan-style role in pick-and-rolls with Lillard and McCollum. If Whiteside isn't a cultural fit or wants to play elsewhere, I don't see a realistic young free agent who's a clear upgrade over Plumlee.
Doolittle: Portland is positioned fairly well to woo the bigger free agents and some of the centers might be a good fit -- Horford especially, given his ability to both defend and work as a screener for Lillard and McCollum. That said, if the Blazers don't make a splash with a new center, their current crew will again share court time according to matchups.
Haberstroh: Ed Davis probably gives me the most hope, but I still don't know if he's strong enough to be a premier rim protector in the NBA. I'd take a look at Ian Mahinmi and see if he can fill that spot at a reasonable price.
Elhassan: Plumlee, because he has shown the ability to not only finish but also make decisions and make the simple pass. Perhaps he can become more sophisticated in his passing, but even at his rudimentary level it makes life easier for the Blazers' backcourt.
Arnovitz: I still think Davis can be a starting center in the NBA, provided he were paired with a 4-man who can stretch the floor and give Lillard and McCollum the driving lanes they need to get to the rim. Leonard has the size, but I'm not sold that there's enough of a defensive presence there to make it work. In that respect, he and Davis make up a respectable frontcourt, but I suspect the Trail Blazers' primary center going forward might be someone who isn't currently on the payroll.
4. Where will the 2016-17 Blazers finish in the standings?
Elhassan: Absent a major offseason acquisition, probably a seven or eight seed. That's not a knock on them, but rather acknowledgement that the Jazz dealt with serious injuries and Houston seriously underachieved.
Haberstroh: Fifth. Remarkably, this team hasn't played a 30-year-old for more than 50 minutes here in the playoffs. This entire roster is entering its prime, so they'll improve on development alone. But I worry that Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum might burn out a bit if they don't get a third scorer.
Pelton: Despite their youth, I think more likely sixth through eighth than part of the top five again. Naturally, that can change dramatically this summer, but my sense is the West's second (or perhaps) third tier will be much deeper next season than it was this season. Odds are 44 wins won't be nearly enough to finish fifth with several lottery teams likely to contend for playoff spots.
Arnovitz: This question can never be answered in a vacuum. The Warriors and Spurs are locks ahead of them next season. If the Clippers keep the core together, they're good for 50-plus wins next season. The Thunder, Rockets and Pelicans are the big wild cards here, depending on how their rosters shape up. So throw Portland into the mix with Utah, Dallas and Memphis. With all that in mind, the over-under is a 6 1/2 seed.
Doolittle: Seventh. The Blazers should be a little better, but they benefited this season from various misfortunes suffered by teams elsewhere in the West. Also, Portland will be hard-pressed to repeat the excellent health of this season's roster.
5. Fact or Fiction: Damian Lillard will win the West as a Blazer.
Arnovitz: Fiction, though not unthinkable. Figure he has 10 seasons ahead of him, and the next three are unlikely. If he can lure a big free agent to Portland, or they can aggregate some assets to trade for one, or a very high pick that becomes an elite player, they'd certainly have a puncher's chance. But size and location of market continue to be a tough hurdle for the franchise when it comes to talent acquisition.
Elhassan: This is tough, as Golden State seems to be on a path of perpetual excellence and the tough competition in the West. I'm going to lean toward fiction.
Haberstroh: Fiction. I look at Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and the duo in OKC, and just can't see Lillard coming out on top anytime soon. Sure, anything is possible, and Lillard has proved doubters wrong. But this is a 44-win team that caught a break with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul injuries. Would this even be a question if those guys were healthy? I love the Blazers' youth, but Portland's fanbase knows all-too-well that a bright future doesn't always work out as planned.
Doolittle: Fiction. Portland's young foundation is exciting and the combination of Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey overseeing things is as good as it gets. But there is just so much competition in the West and if OKC stays together, it's going to be tough to navigate through the Thunder, Warriors and Spurs any time soon.
Pelton: Fiction. It's worth remembering that over the last 16 seasons, only five different teams have won the Western Conference. The odds are against just about any team that's not already in the mix reaching that level. As much as Portland has done correctly in its post-LaMarcus Aldridge rebuild, the Blazers are still going to need a lot of good decisions and good fortune to win the West.
Nike EYBL Session III: Who stood out?
Hampton, Va. -- At Session III of the Nike EYBL, some of the nation’s top college basketball prospects all solidified their status. DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley, the top-ranked prospects in the ESPN 60 and ESPN 25, respectively, were both as good as advertised while Michael Porter Jr., No. 3 in the ESPN 60 held serve as well. Here’s a look at five others who moved the needle with their performance:
1. Gary Trent Jr., 6-5, G
He’s one of the best scorers in the EYBL, and put on a display over the weekend. Trent went off for 46 points in one game, but it’s actually the increased efficiency in his game that’s most impressive. Trent is a big guard with a strong body and ability to get buckets in all three ranges. He’s evolved from a volume scorer a year ago, and is now picking his spots better, utilizing all his tools to dictate what part of his game he utilizes, become a more willing distributor and also giving a more diligent effort on the defensive end. The buzz in his recruitment is that this could be the latest chapter of the Duke vs. Kentucky recruiting rivalry but Michigan State, Ohio State, Kansas and UCLA are in the mix as well.
2. Brad Davison, 6-3, G
Davison was Trent’s running mate in the backcourt and emerged as the surprise of the weekend as a result. First, it was a 37 points, 9 assists and 8 rebound performance in one win, but most important were the three clutch free throws he delivered under pressure to force OT. Sunday, he put up 25 points and 6 rebounds. A tough shooter who was aggressive with his stroke all weekend, both off the catch as well as with his step-back game off the dribble, Davison was willing to take, and able to make, big shots all weekend long. The performances paid off as NC State offered by the end of the weekend, even though college coaches weren’t permitted to be in attendance.
3. P.J. Washington, 6-8, PF
Sticking with the same theme – that winning matters – Washington was one of the more impressive guys on the weekend. While there were others with gaudier individual statistics, Washington was efficient and versatile as the foundation of a Team Penny squad that is collectively playing at a very high level. What stands out most is that he’s long with a high motor but also has a college-ready level of polish on his game. Offensively, he could operate with his back to the basket, is also able to face-up and drive less mobile four-men from the perimeter and was one of the better passing frontcourt players from the weekend. He was very active on the defensive end and able to clean both backboards with his ability to rebound in traffic. His list of suitors starts with the likes of North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky but also includes Texas, Michigan State, UCLA, Oregon, NC State, California and Florida.
4. Kevin Knox, 6-7, F
His size, length and increasing skill level is going to allow him to play multiple positions at the next level, but in the EYBL he’s playing alongside a pair of true bigs in ESPN 100 center Bruno Fernando and ESPN 25 PF Silvio De Sousa. While that’s as physically imposing a frontline as there is in the EYBL, it’s not necessarily an ideal recipe for offensive spacing. Nevertheless, Knox still finds ways to get his real estate and is an absolutely elite rebounder on the wing and equally good in transition. Add that to an improved shooting touch from the perimeter and still significant upside left to discover and his ceiling is right up there with the very best in the 2017 class. California is the latest to offer but the bottom line is he’ll have his choice of schools and Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Kentucky, Kansas and Villanova are among the ones getting the most traction.
5. Trae Young, 6-1, G
He’s one of the most skilled guards in the country and his instinctive feel for the game is equally impressive. While he can fill it up offensively and dazzle you with both his playmaking and long range shooting, as he did in Sunday’s 36 point performance, there were also moments this when some of his shot selection and decision making was less than ideal. Saturday night wasn’t one of those times though. With his running mate, Porter, out of the lineup following an injury earlier in the day, Young responded with the first triple-double of the EYBL season with 19 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds and when he embraces the role of more of a true point guard, and makes those around him better, he looks like a prospect likely to keep climbing the rankings. On the recruiting front, he’s getting closer to cutting his list and it sounds like Kentucky, Kansas, Oklahoma and very possibly Duke are all likely to be on it.
god shamgod
Veteran
The 2016 Chicago Cubs could be history in the making
The Chicago Cubs are good at baseball.
Not exactly a stunning statement that will cause 1930s news editors to hit a big, red button, shout "Stop the presses!" so that they can print a new edition and send it out to small children shouting headlines in the streets.
But ... the Cubs are good at baseball.
Not just regular good of course, but GOOD with all the crimes against HTML formatting that we can muster.
So just how good are the Cubs? (And no, this isn't a "How hot was it?" setup in which I give out a 1960s Borscht Belt punchline.) The Cubs have gotten off to a 26-8 start, in which historical comparisons become something of real interest. After all, in every season, there are some teams fighting for being the best in the league. But not every season features a team that ends up performing at a level where you need to compare them to the greatest teams of yesteryear.
Dating to 1901, 26-8 is a great start by any measure; only a handful of teams have been better in their first 34 games.
Teams with >26 Wins in First 34 Games, 1901-2016
Team Wins
1984 Detroit Tigers 29
1902 Pittsburgh Pirates 29
1939 New York Yankees 28
1928 New York Yankees 28
1946 Boston Red Sox 27
1911 Detroit Tigers 27
1912 New York Giants 27
A mere seven teams have done better over the same stretch of games and only a single team within the past half-century. And it's not as if there are 200 teams that have gone 26-8. The Cubs are only the 12th in modern baseball (beginning in 1920).
So how many wins can the Cubs pull off? To crack a guess at this, I asked the ZiPS projection system for the updated projections for the Cubs.
As of Saturday morning, ZiPS has the Cubs finishing at 103-59. And remember, that's not "the Cubs could win 103 games if things break their way." That's a projection system estimating they will finish with 103 games if they have merely average luck.
Why is that significant? Generally speaking, while teams that win 100 games are obviously better as a group, a team that wins 100 games is more likely to be overperforming than they are to be underperforming. So the Cubs being projected to win 103 games on average (and they're not actually winning more games than their run differential right now) is quite significant.
But what if the Cubs are fortunate? Record breaking favors the lucky, after all. I asked ZiPS what the odds were that the Cubs hit every win total at 100 and above.
2016 Cubs Probability Of Reaching 100 or more Wins
Wins Percentage
100 66.0%
101 60.2%
102 55.4%
103 50.6%
104 45.8%
105 41.0%
106 36.3%
107 31.8%
108 27.5%
109 23.6%
110 19.9%
111 16.6%
112 13.6%
113 11.1%
114 8.8%
115 7.0%
116 5.4%
117 4.1%
118 2.3%
119 1.6%
120 1.1%
That comes out to a 5.4 percent chance at catching the record for wins at 116. Chris Davis has hit home runs in 5.7 percent of his career plate appearances. Is anyone really shocked when he homers? You shouldn't be.
What makes the Cubs even more impressive: Baseball is more competitive than it ever was. While there's this belief that somehow baseball was more competitive in the 1940s, the evidence strongly suggests this is just a sepia-toned myth. The spread between team statistics and player statistics has tightened as a rule throughout baseball history.
On a team level, even the expected upticks you see from expansion years are there -- the standard deviation for team wins went from 12.8 in 1960 to 15.6 in 1961, from 9.7 to 15.0 from 1968 to 1969, and from 10.2 to 12.2 from 1992 to 1993. It's not an accident that you have .600 hitters and undefeated teams in high school, but it has been a long time since we've had a .400 hitter in the majors, in which most teams finish between a .400 and .600 winning percentage.
This is hardly surprising, because baseball is drawing from a much larger population, from many more regions in the United States, from many more countries, and no longer has a color line. There's also far more money in baseball than there used to be, and profit is a wonderful motive. The daydream of baseball having a golden age fueled by white kids playing stickball in Hell's Kitchen isn't a reality.
So what happens if you re-center historical team win totals, using the information of the spread of ability at the time, into a 2016 competitive context over a 162-game season?
Best Team Records, in 2016's Competitive Environment
Team Record
1998 New York Yankees 113-49
2001 Seattle Mariners 113-49
1995 Cleveland Indians 110-52
1986 New York Mets 110-52
1970 Baltimore Orioles 107-55
1969 Baltimore Orioles 107-55
1954 Cleveland Indians 107-55
1906 Chicago Cubs 107-55
1993 Atlanta Braves 107-55
1975 Cincinnati Reds 106-56
1927 New York Yankees 106-56
1993 San Francisco Giants 105-57
1988 Oakland Athletics 105-57
1998 Atlanta Braves 105-57
1984 Detroit Tigers 105-57
From a competitive standpoint, winning 114 games would be the most dominating performance by a team in modern baseball history. And if you look at the chart above, the Cubs have a 9 percent chance of doing just that.
So make sure to attend a Cubs game this year, because they have a chance to do things that very few teams in history have accomplished.
5-on-5: Will KD and Westbrook upset Steph, Warriors?
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder overwhelm Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors with size and athleticism and move on to the NBA Finals?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast how this series plays out.
1. What is the most important thing to watch in this series?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Can OKC's big men have the same sort of impact they had against San Antonio? The difference in that series was Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka had great success offensively while harassing the Spurs' big men defensively.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: How the Thunder's size matches up with the Warriors' stretch and versatility. For the most part, the Spurs-Thunder series was conventional "two bigs" basketball -- and OKC controlled the interior for most of it. The Warriors will force the Thunder to choose: Maintain that size advantage and risk getting stretched beyond its limit, or play the Warriors' game.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: There's so much to choose from in this series! Curry's health? OKC's floor balance? Russell Westbrook's defensive discipline? Enes Kanter's minutes?
I'm going with a sleeper factor: Dion Waiters' general effectiveness. If Waiters is efficient and holds up defensively, the Thunder might be able to replicate the attack-from-the-backcourt Portland dynamic that troubled Golden State in the last round.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Whether the Thunder will try their twin-tower lineup with Adams and Kanter and how the Warriors will try to counter it. In these playoffs the lineup has been an immensely efficient plus-28 in 66 minutes, thanks in part to a great offensive rebounding rate. The Warriors will want to involve Kanter in lots of pick-and-rolls to make the lineup less effective.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: How frequently Golden State deploys the Death Lineup, and how well Oklahoma City deals with it.
For all the excitement about the Thunder staying big against the Warriors' small frontcourt in the first meeting, the Death Lineup was a major factor in Golden State's comeback win in OKC. Overall, it posted a 162.9 offensive rating and outscored the Thunder by 45.8 points per 100 possessions in 17 minutes.
The Death Lineup is basically Steve Kerr's cheat code to win close games in this series -- if he uses it.
2. Fact or Fiction: The OKC-San Antonio series changed how you view the Thunder.
Arnovitz: Fact. Didn't see that coming. It's easy to forget that when the Thunder are engaged, they can be an incredibly effective defensive unit -- quick hands and tree branches everywhere the offense tries to move in the half court. With Adams and Andre Roberson on the floor together, it's devastating inside and out.
Elhassan: Fiction. While their supporting cast played better than I expected them to, the Thunder, at their core, did what came naturally to them. It was the Spurs who faltered uncharacteristically.
Doolittle: Not really. The Thunder showed glimpses all season of what they can be, but were prone to inconsistency. The second round was what Oklahoma City looks like when it all comes together. They'll need to keep that vibe going against the Warriors. Everyone has to continue to trust each other and play within their roles.
Engelmann: Fact. I didn't think the Thunder had it in them to win against one of the best regular-season teams of all time. Billy Donovan impressed me by coming up with a solid game plan, and Adams cemented his status as one of the better centers in the NBA.
Pelton: Fact. It showed that Donovan can make the necessary strategic adjustments over the course of the series. It also showed that the Thunder can stay focused defensively and take away open shots with their length and quickness.
At the same time, some of the matchup advantages Oklahoma City had against San Antonio won't carry over against Golden State.
3. Rate the accuracy of these statements, from 0 to 10.
- The Thunder will overwhelm the Warriors with size.
- The Thunder will overwhelm the Warriors with athleticism.
- The Warriors are too skilled for the Thunder to play big.
Elhassan: 3, 1, 8. Part of GSW's brilliance is their ability to go small, reaping the benefits of a massive skill advantage without conceding anything on the defensive end. If OKC can maintain the size advantage and force Golden State to play its big men, the Thunder have a chance to upset the Warriors. In terms of athleticism, the Thunder have an advantage at only two positions: point guard and small forward. Otherwise the Warriors are quicker and, more importantly, more skilled at every position.
Golden State's greatest asset is a preponderance of high-level passers able to make snap decisions. That allows the ball to move and find the right player offensively in any given possession, and prevents opponents' big lineups from doing enough damage to matter.
Arnovitz: 3, 5, 8. The Warriors have been to this joint before. That's what the shooters are for: to counter the size. As for the athleticism, the Warriors can deal with that, too. They move well as a defensive unit and place a premium on having a foot in the paint. And though Adams is a gifted defender, do you really want him guarding a perimeter-oriented playmaker like Draymond Green or Andre Iguodala? Meanwhile, Kanter is not a gifted defender.
Doolittle: 4, 4, 9. Oklahoma City is more likely to make those first two statements ring true than anyone. But it has been a long time since the Warriors have been overwhelmed by anything. Golden State dictates how games flow, not their opponents. There's a reason they are 81-11.
Engelmann: The Thunder's size will be somewhat an issue, but Green may be the best undersized PF to ever play, so I'll give this a 3. I actually think the Warriors are the more athletic team, so I'll give that one a 0. The Warriors are too quick and shoot too well from outside for the Thunder to play big, so I'll give the third one an 8.
Pelton: I'd go 2, 3, 9. The Warriors are too skilled for the Thunder to play big. The Spurs didn't have the personnel to make Oklahoma City pay for playing Adams and Kanter together without moving Kawhi Leonard to power forward. The Warriors can do that with Green at power forward, and when they move him to center the Thunder are hopelessly out of luck with that combo.
And on the question of skill, Golden State has too many shooters and passers in the Death Lineup (or alternate versions featuring Shaun Livingston and Brandon Rush).
4. Which of these numbers is closest to your own estimate? Why?
A. Golden State 69 percent chance to win (FiveThirtyEight)
B. Golden State 70 percent chance to win (ESPN's Basketball Power Index)
C. Golden State 78 percent chance to win (betting markets; PredictWise)
Elhassan: C. The Warriors are the most sound basketball team in the league, possibly ever. They can defend any style, and their offense is virtually unguardable. Could Westbrook and Durant explode for a combined 60-80 points every game? Sure, but even so, that still might not be enough.
Arnovitz: B. After the second round, it's closer to 70 percent. Figure if the Warriors had an easier time with Portland game-to-game and the Thunder weren't a wave of destruction in their final three games against the Spurs, the number is probably well into the 80s.
Doolittle: C. This should be a competitive, aesthetically pleasing series. We can spend all day dissecting the various ways in which the Thunder can create advantages against the Warriors, or exploit whatever minuscule tarnishes may exist on Golden State's shining armor. In the end, we're probably overthinking things. The Warriors are just too good.
Engelmann: C. My mathematical simulation, based on point differential and the Pythagorean method (a version of which is explained here), gives the Warriors a 69 percent chance, matching the prediction of FiveThirtyEight. But since I'm generally a big believer in the Vegas lines and the betting market, and with these Warriors appearing to be very hungry, I'm going to lean toward 78 percent as my personal estimate.
Pelton: C. In series since 2003 where the team with home-court advantage had a point differential between three and four points per game better in the regular season (the Warriors were +3.5 relative to the Thunder), the team with home court wins about 80 percent of the time.
While Oklahoma City's upset of San Antonio suggests the Thunder might be a better team in the playoffs than in the regular season, few teams have more room for improvement by focusing on their best lineups than Golden State -- as we saw in last year's NBA Finals.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games?
Arnovitz: Golden State in seven. The Thunder are peaking, and that peak is enough to win OKC two or three games. But the Warriors have the ability to adapt to any kind of series. They can beat you small, they can match you big. They can beat you in transition, and they'll slice you up the half court. We haven't seen the best of the Warriors yet, partially due to Curry's reintegration.
Elhassan: Golden State in six. For all the reasons listed above: The Warriors have depth and skill, and they are highly intelligent.
Doolittle: Warriors in five. Too much has to go right for OKC. They can't get burned in transition when Westbrook drives. They have to protect the ball. They have to figure out ways to get Kanter on the floor without getting obliterated on defense. The closer I look at it, the more Occam's razor rings in my head: The simplest answer is usually the best.
Engelmann: Warriors in five. Curry showed in Games 4 and 5 of the Portland series he is fully healthy again. Compared to the Spurs, the Warriors are more top-heavy and benefit from a shortened playoff rotation. Plus, they have more offensive firepower, making it tougher for OKC to come up with a good defensive game plan.
Pelton: Warriors in five. I know that feels harsh after the Thunder's incredible triumph over the Spurs, but remember that the last time they knocked off San Antonio, they subsequently lost the NBA Finals to the Miami Heat in five games.
That was a closer series than the 4-1 outcome indicated, at least before a barrage of Miami 3-pointers in Game 5, and I see something similar here with Golden State's Death Lineup able to pull out most of the close games.
BONUS
Fact or Fiction: The Warriors will repeat as champs.
Arnovitz: Fact. The Cavs are more interesting than they were a month ago, and Kevin Love looks reliable, giving them something they didn't have last June. But this is still Golden State's postseason to lose, and they still have the capacity to change their tactical plan on a dime. They can do more things than Cleveland in a seven-game series.
Elhassan: Fact. Too skilled, too sound, too smart.
Doolittle: Fact. The Warriors will more severely tested in the next two rounds than they were in the first two rounds. But nothing in the postseason has suggested Golden State is anything but the team that has been dominating the NBA the past two years. A healthy Curry is the margin the Warriors need.
Engelmann: Fact. The Cavaliers are not as good as the Thunder. Combining the probabilities for Golden State winning each series -- assuming a 78 percent chance against the Thunder, and an even higher chance against the Cavs -- results in a 60 percent chance or better for the Warriors to win the title.
Pelton: Fact. I mean obviously it's not a fact. Who knows what happens as Curry comes back from his sprained MCL, and both the Thunder and the NBA Finals opponent are good enough to trip up the Warriors, but it's certainly not fiction. A Golden State title is more likely than not.
Rakim Allah
Superstar
Can I get the insider for NBA Mock Draft:Who will the 76ers, Lakers take? Thanks
Mock Draft 7.0: Who will Sixers, Lakers draft with order set?
The lottery results are in, and the Philadelphia 76ers are (finally) the big winners! That means it's time for Mock Draft 7.0.
The NBA draft combine just finished last weekend and had a significant impact on our Big Board. The process of team workouts has just started. Over the next few weeks, the adidas Eurocamp and hundreds of team workouts will dramatically alter the makeup of the draft.
Remember, this mock draft doesn't say where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft would likely do with its pick.
Here's our latest full first-round mock draft (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares), after taking into account team needs based on our discussions with NBA scouts and general managers.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons
LSU
Freshman
Forward
What a huge lift this is for the Sixers. Suddenly, former GM Sam Hinkie's long-term strategy of building through the draft looks much smarter, with a potential superstar landing in Philly.
There will be a lot of debate in the Sixers' front office on whether to take Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. But I think they'll lean toward Simmons.
Philadelphia coach Brett Brown knows him from his days coaching in Australia. He desperately needs a playmaker, and new GM Bryan Colangelo wants a player who can contribute right now.
Ingram will be tempting. They need shooting, and Ingram could really fit the bill. But right now, the odds are on Simmons going No. 1.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Ingram
Duke
Freshman
Forward
This is a great outcome for the Lakers. They keep their pick, they can land a potential superstar and they won't have the pressure of deciding between Simmons and Ingram. They can just take whoever is left on the board. I can't tell you how many GMs told me tonight at the lottery that they'd prefer No. 2, just for this reason.
If the Sixers take Simmons, Ingram is a terrific fit for the Lakers. They need wings who can shoot, and Ingram could end up being a Kevin Durant clone.
3. Boston Celtics (via Nets)
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Staying at No. 3 was a tough outcome for the Celtics, because the top two players seem to tower over the rest of the draft. Celtics GM Danny Ainge has been searching for a superstar and got so, so close.
I think the Celtics will seriously explore trading this pick along with other assets, parlaying them into a veteran who can help right now.
If the pick is not traded, I think it will come down to Murray, Kris Dunn and Buddy Hield. The Celtics really like Dunn, and he might eventually be better than the point guards they already have, but Murray's shooting ability and versatility might make him a more valuable player, or trade chip, for the Celtics.
4. Phoenix Suns
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
While the Suns would've loved to have jumped into the top two, this isn't a bad outcome for them. They really need a stretch-4, and Bender is likely to be there for them to take.
Many GMs believe he's the third-best prospect in the draft. Bender is young and a bit inexperienced, but he could bring many of the same qualities that Kristaps Porzingis brought to the table as a Knicks rookie.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Kris Dunn
Providence
Junior
Guard
The Wolves' biggest need is shooting, both at the 2 and the 4 positions. If Buddy Hield and Henry Ellenson are on the board, they'll be very tempted.
But Tom Thibodeau, the new president and coach, believes in defense first, and Kris Dunn is an elite defender. Taking him would give them flexibility, should they choose to trade Ricky Rubio.
It's a tough call. But from what I could gather at the combine and the lottery, they might be leaning toward Dunn.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
Landing Hield would be a dream scenario for the Pelicans. Two-guard Eric Gordon is a free agent, and New Orleans really needs shooting, and they want to get better fast. Hield could come in and play right away.
Dragan Bender and Kris Dunn are the other guys they're really interested in, but in this scenario, I think it's Hield.
7. Denver Nuggets
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
The Nuggets don't have any obvious needs, which allows them to take the best player available.
Ellenson is an interesting fit. His ability to stretch the floor and rebound should be really attractive. Marquese Chriss might have a little more upside, but Ellenson is a more sure thing. Skal Labissiere is a dark horse here.
8. Sacramento Kings
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
Sacramento needs a point guard, but Dunn and Jamal Murray are off the board, and the next best point guard, Tyler Ulis, is a stretch this high. The Kings also need shooting, but again, unless they reach for Furkan Korkmaz, I think they have to opt for the best available player here.
I think the most likely scenario is for them to seek out a trade. They want to win now and don't have a lot of interest in a rookie. But if they keep the pick, Brown has all the physical tools to make him intriguing here, as long as the team is patient.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Knicks)
Marquese Chriss
Washington
Freshman
Forward
Chriss is raw, but his size, athleticism, shooting and shot-blocking make for a unique combination.
Given the Raptors' long-term needs at power forward, he's worth a shot. And don't be surprised if they are tempted by Labissiere here. If Skal hits his potential, he could be a Channing Frye-type player in the pros.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Bucks suffered defensively with Greg Monroe in the middle and will probably look to see what they can get on the trade market this summer. Even if they keep him, Poeltl, the No. 1 rated center on our Board, seems like a good fit. He's a fluid athlete with great hands who rebounds and protects the rim. He needs to get stronger, but he's a good value at No. 10.
11. Orlando Magic
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward/center
Labissiere gives the Magic something they've lacked for a while: a rim protector. He is a terrific shot-blocker and has the ability to stretch the floor.
He would be perfect next to Nikola Vucevic, but the Magic are going to have to be patient with him.
Video: Prospect breakdown
12. Utah Jazz
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
The Jazz don't have any immediate needs, and whichever player lands here will struggle to find minutes on a loaded roster.
Three candidates stand out if Labissiere is off the board: Korkmaz, Denzel Valentine and Malachi Richardson. Valentine is a prototypical Jazz player and the most ready to play right now. Richardson has the most upside. However, Korkmaz offers shooting, upside and the ability to continue to develop in Turkey until the Jazz need him.
Video: Prospect breakdown
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
If the Suns grab Bender, then their needs move to the small-forward position. P.J. Tucker has a team option, and while T.J. Warren has been solid, Valentine is a better talent than both.
He's a better passer and shooter and should be able to play right away.
Video: Prospect breakdown
14. Chicago Bulls
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
I've had Ulis here for the past few weeks, but the word out of the combine was that the Bulls were narrowing their choices to three big men: Davis, Ante Zizic and Ivica Zubac.
Joakim Noah is a free agent, and Pau Gasol is in the last year of his deal. Davis is the best athlete and shot-blocker available. He even has an emerging perimeter game. He's raw, but in the long run he might be the best option.
Video: Prospect breakdown
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Tyler Ulis
Kentucky
Sophomore
Guard
The Nuggets drafted a point guard last year in Emmanuel Mudiay, but he's really more of a combo guard and could use some help.
Ulis might be the best pure passing PG in the draft. He's little, but should be a great complement to Mudiay, even allowing him to swing over to the 2 at times.
Video: Prospect breakdown
16. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
The Celtics are unlikely to keep all of their picks. You can expect GM Danny Ainge to shop them hard. If they do keep them, don't be surprised to see Boston gamble on a few projects it can develop over time.
Zizic's elite motor, offensive rebounding and production in Croatia make him very intriguing.
Video: Prospect breakdown
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Sabonis is an excellent passer who plays tough, rebounds and does the little things that help teams win. He's neither a great athlete nor a great defender, but the Grizzlies have had a lot of success with Zach Randolph.
Sabonis has terrific potential and should be able to step in and play right away. Zubac is another strong candidate here.
Video: Prospect breakdown
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward/center
Labissiere gives the Magic something they've lacked for a while: a rim protector. He is a terrific shot-blocker and has the ability to stretch the floor.
He would be perfect next to Nikola Vucevic, but the Magic are going to have to be patient with him.
Video: Prospect breakdown
12. Utah Jazz
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
The Jazz don't have any immediate needs, and whichever player lands here will struggle to find minutes on a loaded roster.
Three candidates stand out if Labissiere is off the board: Korkmaz, Denzel Valentine and Malachi Richardson. Valentine is a prototypical Jazz player and the most ready to play right now. Richardson has the most upside. However, Korkmaz offers shooting, upside and the ability to continue to develop in Turkey until the Jazz need him.
Video: Prospect breakdown
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
If the Suns grab Bender, then their needs move to the small-forward position. P.J. Tucker has a team option, and while T.J. Warren has been solid, Valentine is a better talent than both.
He's a better passer and shooter and should be able to play right away.
Video: Prospect breakdown
14. Chicago Bulls
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
I've had Ulis here for the past few weeks, but the word out of the combine was that the Bulls were narrowing their choices to three big men: Davis, Ante Zizic and Ivica Zubac.
Joakim Noah is a free agent, and Pau Gasol is in the last year of his deal. Davis is the best athlete and shot-blocker available. He even has an emerging perimeter game. He's raw, but in the long run he might be the best option.
Video: Prospect breakdown
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Tyler Ulis
Kentucky
Sophomore
Guard
The Nuggets drafted a point guard last year in Emmanuel Mudiay, but he's really more of a combo guard and could use some help.
Ulis might be the best pure passing PG in the draft. He's little, but should be a great complement to Mudiay, even allowing him to swing over to the 2 at times.
Video: Prospect breakdown
16. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
The Celtics are unlikely to keep all of their picks. You can expect GM Danny Ainge to shop them hard. If they do keep them, don't be surprised to see Boston gamble on a few projects it can develop over time.
Zizic's elite motor, offensive rebounding and production in Croatia make him very intriguing.
Video: Prospect breakdown
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Sabonis is an excellent passer who plays tough, rebounds and does the little things that help teams win. He's neither a great athlete nor a great defender, but the Grizzlies have had a lot of success with Zach Randolph.
Sabonis has terrific potential and should be able to step in and play right away. Zubac is another strong candidate here.
Video: Prospect breakdown
18. Detroit Pistons
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
The Pistons don't really have a great backup point guard for next season behind Reggie Jackson. Baldwin, Demetrius Jackson and Dejounte Murray are all candidates here.
They all have their strengths, but Baldwin's size and shooting ability make him the most likely pick.
Video: Prospect breakdown
19. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers)
Ivica Zubac
Bosnia
Age: 19
Center
This is the third pick for the Nuggets, and if they keep it, it will probably be used on a draft-and-stash selection.
The Nuggets have had a lot of luck with international big men in the draft. Do they need another one? Probably not. But if they want to trade the pick, grabbing a guy like Zubac, who is coveted by several teams, seems like the right play.
20. Indiana Pacers
Malachi Richardson
Syracuse
Freshman
Guard
Larry Bird wants scorers, and after Hield is off the board, I'm not sure there's another guy who can score on his own faster than Richardson.
He's a bit raw but fits the style of play the Pacers are hoping for under new coach Nate McMillan. Another sleeper here is Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff.
Video: Prospect breakdown
21. Atlanta Hawks
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Kent Bazemore is a free agent, and even if the Hawks re-sign him, they'll need more help at the 3.
Bembry is a Mike Budenholzer player all the way. He is a terrific passer with a super-high basketball IQ and has the athleticism to be a lockdown defender. His play at the combine really helped his stock.
Video: Prospect breakdown
22. Charlotte Hornets
Malik Beasley
Florida State
Freshman
Guard
The Hornets, like so many teams in the league, are in need of shooters. Nicolas Batum and Courtney Lee are both free agents. Even if the Hornets re-sign one, landing Beasley would be a real steal for Charlotte.
His shooting ability and athleticism would make him a perfect fit here.
Video: Prospect breakdown
23. Boston Celtics
Thon Maker
Australia
Age: 19
Forward
This is the third first-round pick for the Celtics, and on the slim chance they keep all three, this gives Ainge a chance to swing for the fences.
Maker could end up rising dramatically in the next few weeks with great workouts. He nailed his measurements, athletic testing and interviews at the combine. If he plays well in workouts, the Celtics might have to grab him at No. 16. If he struggles? He could end up in the second round.
Video: Prospect breakdown
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Dejounte Murray might have as much upside as any point guard in the draft after Jamal Murray and Dunn are off the board. He has great size, toughness and a knack for seeing the floor. He also can be wild, and his jump shot is erratic.
Murray has bust potential, but he also carries some of the ingredients to be a star at the next level if he develops. That's exactly the type of player the Sixers need to find right now.
Video: Prospect breakdown
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
The Pistons don't really have a great backup point guard for next season behind Reggie Jackson. Baldwin, Demetrius Jackson and Dejounte Murray are all candidates here.
They all have their strengths, but Baldwin's size and shooting ability make him the most likely pick.
Video: Prospect breakdown
19. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers)
Ivica Zubac
Bosnia
Age: 19
Center
This is the third pick for the Nuggets, and if they keep it, it will probably be used on a draft-and-stash selection.
The Nuggets have had a lot of luck with international big men in the draft. Do they need another one? Probably not. But if they want to trade the pick, grabbing a guy like Zubac, who is coveted by several teams, seems like the right play.
20. Indiana Pacers
Malachi Richardson
Syracuse
Freshman
Guard
Larry Bird wants scorers, and after Hield is off the board, I'm not sure there's another guy who can score on his own faster than Richardson.
He's a bit raw but fits the style of play the Pacers are hoping for under new coach Nate McMillan. Another sleeper here is Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff.
Video: Prospect breakdown
21. Atlanta Hawks
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Kent Bazemore is a free agent, and even if the Hawks re-sign him, they'll need more help at the 3.
Bembry is a Mike Budenholzer player all the way. He is a terrific passer with a super-high basketball IQ and has the athleticism to be a lockdown defender. His play at the combine really helped his stock.
Video: Prospect breakdown
22. Charlotte Hornets
Malik Beasley
Florida State
Freshman
Guard
The Hornets, like so many teams in the league, are in need of shooters. Nicolas Batum and Courtney Lee are both free agents. Even if the Hornets re-sign one, landing Beasley would be a real steal for Charlotte.
His shooting ability and athleticism would make him a perfect fit here.
Video: Prospect breakdown
23. Boston Celtics
Thon Maker
Australia
Age: 19
Forward
This is the third first-round pick for the Celtics, and on the slim chance they keep all three, this gives Ainge a chance to swing for the fences.
Maker could end up rising dramatically in the next few weeks with great workouts. He nailed his measurements, athletic testing and interviews at the combine. If he plays well in workouts, the Celtics might have to grab him at No. 16. If he struggles? He could end up in the second round.
Video: Prospect breakdown
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Dejounte Murray might have as much upside as any point guard in the draft after Jamal Murray and Dunn are off the board. He has great size, toughness and a knack for seeing the floor. He also can be wild, and his jump shot is erratic.
Murray has bust potential, but he also carries some of the ingredients to be a star at the next level if he develops. That's exactly the type of player the Sixers need to find right now.
Video: Prospect breakdown